With the existing cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinian factions
in Gaza due to expire at mid-night on Monday 18/8/14 (21:00/17/8/14
GMT) negotiators in Egypt are working hard to find a permanent solution
or failing that a temporary extension to the existing cease-fire.
Unfortunately all the indications at the moment is that neither of those
is particularly likely and it must be said that once again the main
sticking point has been Hamas.
Israel's initial offer that would see the lifting of restrictions on the
flow of goods into Gaza, the release of Hamas prisoners detained on the
West Bank and permission being granted for Gaza fishermen to set sail
up to 20 nautical miles was rejected by Hamas. They of course were
holding out for all that plus the opening of air and sea ports in Gaza
along with the end to restrictions on people travelling from Gaza into
Israel. As Hamas has made it very clear over the last couple of months
that it intends to continue attacking Israel and Israeli civilians in
particular there is no way that Israel can agree to a deal that makes it
easier for Hamas to supply itself with weapons and launch attacks.
The gridlock over this offer led to Egypt to suggest a compromise deal.
This would have seen Hamas defer the issue of the sea and air ports. It
would also have seen the complex discussions about opening Gaza's border
with Israel dropped in favour of opening Gaza's border with Egypt under
the supervision of the Palestinian Authority rather then the Israeli
government. This would have ended the blockade without threatening
Israel's security while helping Hamas to establish an important stream
of tax revenue. Unfortunately it seems that work on this compromise has
also ground to a halt.
As a result in the past few days a new compromise has been suggested
that would see a gradual loosening of the blockade by allowing an
increasing variety and volume of goods into Gaza from Israel and an
increasing number of people into Israel from Gaza providing Hamas
refrains from using that increased freedom to attack Israel. If you want
to continue the metaphor that the people of Gaza are being held in a
large prison by Israel this compromise deal would represent them being
moved to a lower security prison before being granted occasional day
release and the finally paroled provided they could demonstrate they're
no longer a threat to (Israeli) society.
Sadly progress on this compromise is also proving hard to find. If I'm
being totally honest I think that Hamas are finding themselves somewhat
overwhelmed by the technical complexity of a deal that sees you trying
to weight tonnes of grain delivered against number of days without
rocket fire and number of trips for dialysis treatment in Israel
hospitals. The main problem though is Hamas' attitude which seems very
much focused on getting some big announcement, any big announcement such
as the lifting of the blockade that they can take back to the people of
Gaza to show that this war has been worth it. I for one would be very
hesitant to give Hamas any type of propaganda victory because if the
situation is going to move forward they really need to get out of this
mindset that picking fights with Israel leads to success when in fact it
very often leads to failure
Complicating matters further Thursday (14/8/14) saw the first
anniversary of the clearance of the protest camp at the Rabaa al-Adawiya
Mosque in Cairo. This really marked the end of the Muslim Brotherhood
government of Mohamed Morsi but also marked the start of a low intensity
war between Hamas who are an off-shoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and
the Egyptian government. This is a confrontation that somehow neither
Hamas nor Egypt are winning because it has weakened Hamas by cutting off
its supply lines in to Egypt while the constant violence and terrorist
attacks by Hamas linked militants is derailing the Egyptian revolution
by increasing public calls for better security.
No doubt irritated by Human Rights Watch (HRW) downright hysterical
report on the Rabaa al-Adawiya clearance along with Hamas' continued
intransigence Egypt are starting to show signs that they're losing
patience in their role as mediator. In fact they've indicated that if
progress isn't made on this latest compromise deal they won't be
thinking up another one and will stop trying to find a negotiated
solution. Such a decision of course will have little impact on either
Egypt or Israel but does rather leave Hamas out of options.
If no extension of the cease-fire is agreed this really leaves Israel
with two options of what to do next. Firstly they can conduct a long war
of attrition with Hamas in which they respond with air-strikes to each
rocket Hamas fires. Alternatively they can mount a short, sharp war that
includes ground troops to clear out Hamas weapons stores and command
centres in the sections of Gaza that were left untouched during the last
incursion.
Although Israel certainly has the resources to win a long war of
attrition I can't help but feel that the short, sharp war would be the
better option because it certainly feels to me as though this situation
has already dragged on for far too long.
(Originally Posted) 15:20 on 17/8/14 (UK date).
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