The Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab is continuing into it's 58th day. In
this small but strategically important city that sits just 1km (0.6
miles) from Syria's border with Turkey the Kurdish Peoples Protection
Units (YPG) who are defending Kobane have continued to make gains
against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
On Sunday (9/11/14) the YPG launched an offensive in the eastern Kaniya
Kurdan neighbourhood. This offensive lasted for more then 18 hours in
which unconfirmed casualties were sustained both sides. It succeeded in
re-taking part of a single street along with a couple of key buildings.
In the eastern governance/municipality district of the city clashes have
continued in which at least 13 ISIL fighters have been killed although
neither the YPG nor ISIL have attempted let alone succeeded in capturing
fresh territory. In the south of the city there are reports -
unconfirmed at this time - that the YPG have succeeded in re-capturing
some territory following a fresh offensive that began on Sunday evening.
However as with the city's western front the fighting seems to have
eased in the past couple of days. So say it quietly but it is starting
to look as though despite all their claims to the contrary ISIL have
started to give up on Kobane.
Another possible reason behind ISIL's sudden lack of will to fight at
Kobane could be confusion in the ranks over the fate of the group's
commander-in-chief and self-appointed Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Almost as soon as the US carried out an air-strike on an ISIL convoy
near Mosul, Iraq on Friday (7/11/14)/Saturday (8/11/14) rumours started
to fly that al-Baghdadi had been killed in the strike. These were mainly
being circulated by the US who were keen to boast about their exploits.
However on Sunday evening ISIL confirmed that al-Baghdadi had been in
the convoy that was struck but had only been lightly wounded rather then
killed. A few hours later the Iraqi government announced that
al-Baghdadi had been wounded but in an attack by the Iraqi Air Force
that took place near the town of al-Qaim which is on Iraq's border with
Syria and around 265km (160 miles) south-west of Mosul. Since then the
US has started to deny that al-Baghdadi had even been wounded in any
strike. This change in position by the US seems like a deliberate
attempt to snub the Iraqi government.
This tension between the US and the Iraqi government could not have come
at a worse time because a team of 50 US troops have deployed to al-Asad
airbase in Anbar province around 160km (100 miles) west of the Iraqi
capital Baghdad. You may remember that just two weeks ago (27/10/14) the
Asad airbase was scene of a US airdrop to Iraqi troops who had been
surrounded by ISIL. As such the deployment of this advance team puts US
ground troops very much on the frontline of the fight against ISIL. It
is also believed to be the first step in embedding US troops within
Iraqi Army brigades so they can act as advisers as those units do battle
with ISIL. That of course makes those US troops combat troops in all
but name.
It has also been confirmed that the UK carried out its first drone
strike in Iraq on Sunday. In itself this isn't particularly noteworthy
because it doesn't make a huge amount of difference whether a
Hellfire-type missile has been fired from a Reaper drone or Tornado jet.
However the target was an ISIL mine/IED laying team just outside Baji -
around 200km (130 miles) north of Baghdad - which the Iraqi Army have
either re-captured or are in the process of re-capturing from ISIL amid
extremely limited air-support. It was accompanied by a Tornado strike
against a shipping container just outside Baghdad which is said to be
"used by the terrorists to store equipment to support extortion and
control of the local population." As such this seems to have been an
attempt by the UK to jab US President Obama in the ribs to remind him
that drone strikes against al-Baghdadi are no substitute for a coherent
strategy to force ISIL out of territory they hold.
After all in the absence of a clear strategy, a main airbase from which
coalition aircraft can operate from and an increasing number of military
'advisers' on the ground this operation is sadly developing a
distinctly Vietnam-esque feel to it.
(Originally Posted) 17:35 on 11/11/14 (UK date).
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