At this point last week it looked as though the city of Kobane/Ayn
al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey
was on the verge of being over-run by fighters from the Islamic State of
Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Kobane was surrounded from the west, south
and east. ISIL fighters were in control of 40% of the city on the
eastern side and they were advancing on the northern border crossing
that provided Kobane and its predominately Kurdish residents with its
only link to the outside world.
It seemed then that ISIL were just hours away from securing a corridor
from their stronghold of Raqqa - some 140km (84 miles) away - to Turkey
through which they could smuggle oil out of Syria in return for weapons
and fighters being smuggled in. If ISIL had reached the border with
Turkey it would also have provided a pre-text for Turkey to send ground
troops into Syria. As Turkey has previously tried to force its North
Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) partners into a war against the
Syrian government whilst blocking any attempts to fight ISIL and at the
same time attacking the Kurds who have been fighting ISIL this would
have been an absolutely disaster in the war against ISIL which would
have only served to make them stronger.
Since last Saturday (11/10/14) the tide in the battle for Kobane seems
to have turned firmly back in favour of its Kurdish defenders. First the
Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fought ISIL to a stop. Then on
Monday (14/10/13) they repelled yet another ISIL attempt to seize the
northern border crossing before breaking out to re-capture the hill of
Tall Shair which sits 4km (2.4 miles) to the west of Kobane. As of
Thursday (16/10/14) the YPG had forced ISIL fighters from the south and
the west of the city re-capturing the south-western entrance to Kobane
in the process. That further secured both the city and the stretch of
open land between Kobane and Tall Shair. ISIL now control less then 20%
of Kobane and their forces are largely trapped into two small sections
in the east of the city around the hospital and the so-called
"governance sector" which contains the YPG's former HQ. However the YPG
have yet to re-gain control of the south-eastern entrance to the city
In this latest effort to defend Kobane from ISIL's advances the YPG have
been aided by a substantial increase in the level of air-support
provided by the US-led coalition. Although this support has fallen far
short of the coalition's capacity on Monday and Tuesday (15/10/14) the
coalition carried out 39 air-strikes which were largely focused on
destroying ISIL buildings, troop staging areas and weapons and
ammunition stores on the out-skirts of Kobane. On Wednesday (16/10/14)
through Thursday the coalition carried out a further 14 air-strikes.
However the key differences to emerge is that it now appears that the
most ISIL positions on the out-skirts of Kobane have been either totally
or partially destroyed. As a result the latest round of strikes have
focused on buildings inside of Kobane itself which hold ISIL fighters
and were being used as sniper and other fighting positions.
This type of close air-support means that there is now very little
distance between the ISIL positions being struck and positions being
held by YPG fighters. In a chaotic urban warfare environment this leads
to a very real possibility that the YPG rather then ISIL will be killed
in the strikes. In fact on Thursday there were reports - later disproved
- that 5 YPG fighters had been killed in a strike meant for ISIL. As a
result we may have reached the point that air-strikes have become
ineffective by posing a greater risk to the YPG then ISIL. Therefore it
may be better for the YPG to try and liberate the remaining areas under
ISIL control without air-strikes or simply just contain ISIL within
those areas until they either surrender or can be picked off by sniper
fire. That said drones armed with Hellfire-type missiles have proved
themselves to be terrifyingly efficient at conducting highly targeted
strikes within this type of urban warfare setting.
Sadly all these gains by the YPG and losses by ISIL do not mean that the
battle for Kobane is over and that the city is suddenly secure. During
the fighting YPG within the city have been significantly
weakened/degraded with 258 fighters killed (ISIL lost 374) along with
substantial amounts of ammunition, food, water and medical supplies
being used up. This means that unless Kobane is relieved and re-supplied
soon it would be much easier for another big push from ISIL to over-run
the city. As part of its efforts to assist ISIL in any way possible
Turkey is still refusing to open its border with Syria to allow Kobane
to be re-supplied by land.
If this obstruction from Turkey continues then in the coming hours and
days the coalition is going to have to mount air-drops to Kobane. Not
only would this re-supply significantly strengthen Kobane's defence it
would also send the very strong message to ISIL that Kobane is being
protected by the coalition and ISIL will not be allowed to seize it.
Turkey's continued support for ISIL in defiance of United Nations
Security Council (UNSC) resolution 2170 (2014) appears to be starting to
leave the nation increasingly isolated on the international stage.
Yesterday Turkey was defeated by New Zealand and Spain in its efforts to
secure a seat on the UNSC. Despite the fact that vote went to a third
round run-off between Spain and Turkey it always seemed to be a case of
Spain falling just short rather then Turkey ever coming close. In fact
when it became a straight choice between Turkey and Spain Turkey ended
up losing 10 votes.
Although these votes are always done by a secret ballot this would have
been a perfect opportunity for the US to announce that is was not
supporting Turkey in order to send the message that if Turkey continues
to refuse to allow the coalition to use United States Air Force (USAF)
base Incirlik in the fight against ISIL then the coalition will withdraw
its support for Turkey.
Further evidence of Turkey's increased isolation emerged yesterday when
the US confirmed that over the weekend it had held direct talks with the
Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) which the US has designated a terrorist
organisation at Turkey's request. Basically what has been happening is
that the US has been trying to make the war against ISIL go on for as
long as possible while it searches for this mysterious moderate Arab
opposition to ISIL along with other assorted Unicorns.
Meanwhile the Netherlands have given permission for its citizens to go
and fight alongside the Kurdish Peshmerga in Iraq if they so wish. The
UK has sent the Peshmerga heavy machine guns alongside troops to train
them in their use. Germany has been supplying the Kurdish YPG with
anti-tank missiles and other advanced weapons and has made clear that it
intends to continue doing so regardless of what objections Turkey
raises.
Therefore the US appears to have entered into these discussions with
representatives of the PKK under severe duress from its NATO allies. As
such the discussions are at a very early stage and the US is clearly not
yet ready to announce that it will be asking to ask the Kurds to act as
the ground forces in the coalition against ISIL. However it does seem
that the meeting did provide an opportunity for the PKK to pass of
details of ISIL positions in and around Kobane that were then hit by
coalition air-strikes in the following days. This however does fall
short of the real-time targeting that is required.
The reason why this face to face meeting between the US and
representatives of the PKK has been kept so quiet is because Turkey has
convinced the European Union (EU) who in turn have convinced the US that
the PKK are a Marxist terrorist organisation. As a result I should
probably clear up a few mis-conceptions about the PKK.
The main one of these is that the PKK actually only represent around 5%
of the Kurds. For example the PKK aren't even the dominant party in
Kobane which has always been a Kurdish stronghold. So the PKK and the
YPG are most certainly not the same thing although obviously the people
who already have para-military experience do hold key positions within
the YPG. As such saying that all Kurds are terrorists because of the PKK
is just as irrational as saying that all Muslims are terrorists because
of ISIL.
Founded in 1978 the PKK are part of the radicalism of the 1970's
alongside the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa, the Irish
National Liberation Army (INLA) in Northern Ireland, the Red Brigades
in Italy and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) in Palestine.
This golden age of international terrorism occurred during the height
of the Cold War when there was a stark political choice between being
either Capitalist or Communist with no middle ground. As a result all
these groups that had non-economic disputes with Capitalist governments
would play up their Marxist tendencies in order to form allegiances with
each other and gain support. Since then the ANC have gone on to govern
South Africa for 20 years and have so far singularly failed to turn it
into a Communist nation. Meanwhile the PLO have moved so far away from
their Marxist roots that most people have long forgotten that they ever
had Marxist roots. As such I think that the allegation that the PKK are
Communists is more then a little melodramatic.
In terms of violence the PKK along with the PLO have always sat at the
more militant end of the spectrum. However they have always conducted
themselves as a rebel army rather than a terrorist group. That is to say
that all of the PKK's attacks have been directed against legitimate
military targets such as Turkish soldiers and the Turkish security
forces such as the police. The PKK have never carried out bombing
campaigns against civilian targets and certainly have never shown any
interest is carrying out Islamist-style mass casualty attacks. In fact
during the 36 years that the PKK have been in existence only 185
civilians have been killed in any of their operations which is an
incredibly low collateral damage rate for any military force. So if we
are going to refuse to help the Kurds because they are terrorists then
there is absolutely no-one in the Syria conflict that the coalition can
support and we're going to have to invent a whole new word for what ISIL
are.
Despite their increasing international isolation there are no
indications that Turkey is going to side with the coalition over ISIL by
allowing the coalition to use Incirlik. This is on the verge of
becoming a major problem because if Kobane is hardened as a target then
everything that ISIL have done up until now indicates that they will
simply start going after softer targets instead. These softer targets
are likely to be in and around Baghdad in Iraq and ISIL has already
started launching waves of suicide attacks in Baghdad's Shia
neighbourhoods. If ISIL do switch their focus to Baghdad the threat they
pose can easily be contained by the coalition mounting "Operation
Northern Watch" style air patrols over the front lines. However before
they can do that they need a decision on whether Incirlik is to be used
or whether they need to make alternative plans.
In order to plug the gap left by the indecision over Incirlik the UK has
decided to deploy armed Reaper drones from a base in Kuwait. Although
they lack a substantial punch these Medium Altitude Long Endurance
(MALE) drones can patrol the skies over Iraq for long periods of time
and can take limited action to disrupt ISIL ground operations when the
need arises.
On a final note I should point out that the main reason why UK Prime
Minister David Cameron is coming out of this fight against ISIL looking
rather good while US President Barack Obama is starting to look like a
dangerous incompetent is very simple. While Obama seems to be telling
his Generals what to do in order to deal with concerns about his
Democrat Party's electoral chances Cameron is simply asking his Generals
what needs to be done.
(Originally Posted) 16:15 on 17/10/14 (UK date).
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