Today the Battle of Kobane entered its 50th day. This means that the
fight for this small but strategically important city has now gone on
for longer then the third longest war in Israel's entire history. It has
also gone on for longer then four of the five Battles of Ypres in the
first World War and the Battle of the Bulge in the second World War.
More importantly though it has now gone on 22 days longer then the
entire French operation to expel Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
from an area of northern Mali five times larger then the territory
currently occupied by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
Sadly there seems to be precious little indication that the battle will
be ending any time soon. Over the weekend the Kurdish People's
Protection Units (YPG) were able to withstand another big push by ISIL
in the south of the city and even made small gains in the north of
Kobane. However even with the support of the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and
their medium and heavy weapons it seems that the YPG do not yet have
the strength to expel ISIL from Kobane and establish a defensive line
around it. As a result today has been another quiet day of attrition
with no large offensives being reported by either side. Unfortunately
this type of attrition is always going to favour ISIL more than it does
the YPG for the simple reason that for every fighter killed in Kobane
ISIL can bring in two replacements while the YPG are not able to bring
in any replacements due to the Turkish blockade of the city.
Amid continuing unconfirmed rumours of a second Peshmerga convoy on its
way to Kobane there are signs that Turkey could be about to drop its de
facto support for ISIL and allow Kobane to be given the resources it
needs to properly defend itself. This cannot come a moment too soon
because as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems keen to remind
us the battle for Kobane is far from the be and end all of the war
against ISIL.
Back in Iraq where the US-led coalition began its operations almost
three months ago the Yazidis who are ethnic Kurds continue to be
threatened by ISIL in the towns of Zumar and Shingal which sit between
the city of Mosul and the now infamous Sinjar Mountains. However because
the Peshmerga are permitted to operate freely within this area they
have been able to bring in reinforcements to retake Zumar and are
beginning to mount operations to liberate Shingal. Today we were given
yet another reminder of ISIL's brutality when in the city of Mosul they
executed 4 of 12 journalists who were abducted last month. You may
remember that back towards the end of September the Peshmerga were
poised to mount an operation to liberate Mosul only for support to fall
away as the US-led coalition decided to start randomly bombing Syria
instead.
ISIL's appalling behaviour has continued in Iraq's western Anbar. During
Saturday (1/11/14) and Sunday (2/11/14) they massacred 322 members of
the Sunni Al-Bu Nimr tribe in the village of Ras al-Maa and took a
further 65 of the tribe's elders hostage. The tribes only crime seems to
have been choosing to side with the Iraq government over ISIL. Of the
dead 50 bodies were recovered from a well which they appear to have been
thrown into alive. However looking at the price lists of Yazidi women
kidnapped from Shingal that ISIL have started circulating you can't help
but feel that the dead got off lightly.
The village of Ras al-Maa sits just to the north of the city of Ramadi
which sits 100km (60 miles) to the west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad.
The Al-Bu Nimr tribe had fled there from Hit which sits 55km (33 miles)
north-west of Ramadi. At the end of September Hit was under the control
of the Iraqi army and the Iraqi army had just launched a major operation
to liberate Ramadi from ISIL. Unfortunately that operation failed as
coalition air-power suddenly disappeared.
In slightly better news Canada has finally been able to conduct its
first air-strikes against ISIL as part of that US-led coalition.
Although it is yet to be officially confirmed it is understood that on
Sunday 2 Canadian F-18 jets dropped 4 Paveway-type bombs close to
Fallujah - 50km (30 miles) between Baghdad and Ramadi - destroying 6
ISIL construction vehicles which are used to build defensive positions.
Sadly though until the coalition devises a strategy to defeat ISIL and
creates a central command structure to execute that strategy I think
those strikes will have little more then symbolic value.
Of course the main barrier to setting up effective coalition air
operations continues to be Turkey's refusal to allow Incrlik airbase to
be used in the fight against ISIL.
(Originally Posted) 18:00 on 4/11/14 (UK date).
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