Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 10, Week 1, Day 1." on 21/12/11.
The December 20th deadline for militias to leave Tripoli has come and gone with the militias remaining in place. The issue is revealing a split in the National Transitional Council (NTC) between the Prime Minister Abdurrahim al-Keib and the Defence Minister and head of the Zintan Brigade militia Osama al-Juwali. As the man who set the December 20th deadline al-Keib obviously wants the militias to leave immediately in order to secure the city by bringing to an end the kidnappings and seemingly random gun battles. al-Juwali on the other hand wants to keep his militia - the Zintan Brigade - in place for as long as possible. He is doing this as leverage in order to fill the Defence Ministry and the Interior Ministry with as many of his people as possible. Given the undemocratic and aggressive way he is going about it I'm worried about what will happen should he be successful.
Elsewhere it looks as though the International Criminal Court (ICC) could be forced to close it's investigations into the death of Muammer Qaddafi and other alleged crimes committed by rebel forces as nations like Britain move to have it's budget slashed at the annual meeting that is currently going on in New York. The fact that this meeting is still ongoing also serves to explain why Britain's Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has today (21/12/11) decided to prosecute footballer John Terry for allegedly racially abusing Anton Ferdinand.
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
Operation Oil Theft: Month 11, Week 2, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 9, Week 5 Day 1." on 19/12/11.
Over the weekend (16-17/12/11) over US$160bn of Libyan assets have been unfrozen from a range of sources and placed under the control of the National Transitional Council (NTC). The first tranche of this money to actually arrive in Libya is around US$5bn in cash that is going to be flown from Germany to Tripoli. Obviously how much of that money actually ends up in the hands of the NTC depends on who controls Tripoli's international airport.
At the moment that airport is still firmly under the control of the Zintan Brigade militia rather then the Libyan government. The Libyan National Army (LNA) attempted to bring up reinforcements from Benghazi to make a second attempt to gain control of the airport but the convoy was stopped by the Misrata Brigade militia who are allied to the Zintan Brigade midweek. Then on Thursday (15/12/11) the son of the commander of the LNA General Khalifa Hifter was shot and wounded by the Zintan Brigade in Tripoli. When one of Hifter's other sons attempted to visit his brother in hospital on Friday (16/12/11) he was kidnapped by the Zintan Brigade and has not been heard from since. This comes against a backdrop of professionally circulated rumours that Hifter is some sort of American spy. Personally I don't think that is true but I am certain that the Zintan Brigade is being controlled by Britain which is why they were able to capture Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, a prisoner they've yet to hand over to the NTC.
Meanwhile protests that began in Benghazi on Wednesday (14/12/11) have begun to spread calling for more jobs, owed government wages and more transparency from the NTC. While people need jobs and people with jobs need to be paid I am worried by the call for more transparency from the NTC. The foreign powers that backed the Libyan revolution did not do so out of any concern for the Libyan people. Instead they did so to get control of Libya's vast oil wealth. In order to resist this international interference and secure a prosperous future for the Libyan people the NTC needs to be opaque about it's decision making process for a while yet. This is why Britain was so desperate that their militia captured Saif al-Islam so he could be used to ensure that their spy got a job in the NTC.
Or to put it another way the February 17th Libyan revolution that Britain started didn't produce the result it wanted so now they're trying to start a second revolution. This is how the Democratic Republic of Congo got started.
Over the weekend (16-17/12/11) over US$160bn of Libyan assets have been unfrozen from a range of sources and placed under the control of the National Transitional Council (NTC). The first tranche of this money to actually arrive in Libya is around US$5bn in cash that is going to be flown from Germany to Tripoli. Obviously how much of that money actually ends up in the hands of the NTC depends on who controls Tripoli's international airport.
At the moment that airport is still firmly under the control of the Zintan Brigade militia rather then the Libyan government. The Libyan National Army (LNA) attempted to bring up reinforcements from Benghazi to make a second attempt to gain control of the airport but the convoy was stopped by the Misrata Brigade militia who are allied to the Zintan Brigade midweek. Then on Thursday (15/12/11) the son of the commander of the LNA General Khalifa Hifter was shot and wounded by the Zintan Brigade in Tripoli. When one of Hifter's other sons attempted to visit his brother in hospital on Friday (16/12/11) he was kidnapped by the Zintan Brigade and has not been heard from since. This comes against a backdrop of professionally circulated rumours that Hifter is some sort of American spy. Personally I don't think that is true but I am certain that the Zintan Brigade is being controlled by Britain which is why they were able to capture Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, a prisoner they've yet to hand over to the NTC.
Meanwhile protests that began in Benghazi on Wednesday (14/12/11) have begun to spread calling for more jobs, owed government wages and more transparency from the NTC. While people need jobs and people with jobs need to be paid I am worried by the call for more transparency from the NTC. The foreign powers that backed the Libyan revolution did not do so out of any concern for the Libyan people. Instead they did so to get control of Libya's vast oil wealth. In order to resist this international interference and secure a prosperous future for the Libyan people the NTC needs to be opaque about it's decision making process for a while yet. This is why Britain was so desperate that their militia captured Saif al-Islam so he could be used to ensure that their spy got a job in the NTC.
Or to put it another way the February 17th Libyan revolution that Britain started didn't produce the result it wanted so now they're trying to start a second revolution. This is how the Democratic Republic of Congo got started.
Saturday, 7 April 2012
Operation Oil Theft: Month 10, Week 4, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 9, Week 3, Day 1." on 5/12/11.
The only thing I know about what has been happening in Libya this week is that they gave a speech at the COP17/CMP7. However I have not seen nor heard that speech. So it's probably best I leave it there.
The only thing I know about what has been happening in Libya this week is that they gave a speech at the COP17/CMP7. However I have not seen nor heard that speech. So it's probably best I leave it there.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 10, Week 3, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 9, Week 2, Day 1." on 28/11/11.
Last Tuesday (22/11/11) Libya announced it's new political cabinet or Transitional Executive Board (TEB). Worryingly how much of this has been reported was wrong. It was based on a document leaked the day before that seemingly no-one bothered to check. The full correct list can be found here in English and Arabic;
http://feb17.info/official-documents/full-list-of-official-ntc-executive-board-english-arabic/
and just in English here;
http://www.lbbc.org.uk/display_news.php?news_id=117
The first obvious thing about the TEB is that it has taken a new broom to Libyan politics with few of the people who rose to prominence during the conflict being given posts. Instead they've been replaced by new people who few have actually heard of. Among what I consider to be the key ministries (Justice, Interior, Foreign Relations, Oil, Finance, Construction) there are two about whom I still know nothing but their names. However Justice went to Kablifa Ashour a Judge from Misrata who served as chancellor of Misrata central court under Qaddafi. Interior went to Fawzi Abdela'ali a lawyer from Misrata who served as a prosecutor at Misrata central court under Qaddafi. Foreign Relations has gone to Ashour Ben Khayli a career diplomat who served as Qaddafi's Ambassador to Italy during the 1960's and Korea before he resigned in 1984 in protest against the Yvonne Fletcher killing and defected to the US before moving to Canada. Oil has gone to Abdulrahman Ben Yezza an oil industry veteran who spent a large part of his career with Italian oil giant Eni. As the chairman of Libya's National Oil Company under Qaddafi he awarded large oil contract to Eni before resigning because Qaddafi thought the terms of the deal was to generous. Finance and Construction went to Hassan Ziglam and Ibrahim Eskuti respectively but both remain a complete mystery to me.
Apart from appointing competent people to the right posts the TEB shows a deliberate effort to make sure all of Libya is represented although there is an ever so slight bias towards western Libya especially Misrata. The TEB also seems to have shunned Islamists in favour of secularists including several women. However Libya's Berbers who make up around 10% of the population are not represented at all and yesterday (27/11/11) held protests in Tripoli against their omission. The only worrying appointment is Osama Juwali as Defence Minister. As Juwali is the commander of the Zintan militia there is a feeling that rather then being awarded the post on merit he blackmailed himself into it using Saif al-Islam Qaddafi as a bargaining chip.
As for Saif al-Islam himself he is still being held by the Zintan Brigade. He has not been charged with any crime and he has not been handed over to the Libyan government. Also on Tuesday (22/11/11) a delegation from the International Criminal Court (ICC) began a two day visit to Libya to discuss the options for putting Saif al-Islam on trial. These include sending him to the ICC for trial, Libya putting him on trial themselves or a combination of the two with Saif al-Islam going on trial in Libya but with involvement from ICC Judges and lawyers. Obviously it will take time for the Libyan government to make a decision but they can't really start to consider the options until Saif al-Islam is handed over to them.
In a worrying demonstration of a possible pro-Qaddafi insurgency there was fighting between members of a rebel militia and Qaddafi loyalists in Bani Walid on Wednesday (23/11/11). Apparently fighting broke out when the militia attempted to stop a vehicle containing a pro-Qaddafi tribal leader and local residents attacked them. The gun battle was said to last for several hours and left seven dead - five of them militia members. This comes on top of an incident earlier this month when the Zintan Brigade militia got into a battle with the Zawiya Brigade militia over territory. The battle lasted several days and only ended after the arrival of Libyan special forces under the direct command of the central government.
Last Tuesday (22/11/11) Libya announced it's new political cabinet or Transitional Executive Board (TEB). Worryingly how much of this has been reported was wrong. It was based on a document leaked the day before that seemingly no-one bothered to check. The full correct list can be found here in English and Arabic;
http://feb17.info/official-documents/full-list-of-official-ntc-executive-board-english-arabic/
and just in English here;
http://www.lbbc.org.uk/display_news.php?news_id=117
The first obvious thing about the TEB is that it has taken a new broom to Libyan politics with few of the people who rose to prominence during the conflict being given posts. Instead they've been replaced by new people who few have actually heard of. Among what I consider to be the key ministries (Justice, Interior, Foreign Relations, Oil, Finance, Construction) there are two about whom I still know nothing but their names. However Justice went to Kablifa Ashour a Judge from Misrata who served as chancellor of Misrata central court under Qaddafi. Interior went to Fawzi Abdela'ali a lawyer from Misrata who served as a prosecutor at Misrata central court under Qaddafi. Foreign Relations has gone to Ashour Ben Khayli a career diplomat who served as Qaddafi's Ambassador to Italy during the 1960's and Korea before he resigned in 1984 in protest against the Yvonne Fletcher killing and defected to the US before moving to Canada. Oil has gone to Abdulrahman Ben Yezza an oil industry veteran who spent a large part of his career with Italian oil giant Eni. As the chairman of Libya's National Oil Company under Qaddafi he awarded large oil contract to Eni before resigning because Qaddafi thought the terms of the deal was to generous. Finance and Construction went to Hassan Ziglam and Ibrahim Eskuti respectively but both remain a complete mystery to me.
Apart from appointing competent people to the right posts the TEB shows a deliberate effort to make sure all of Libya is represented although there is an ever so slight bias towards western Libya especially Misrata. The TEB also seems to have shunned Islamists in favour of secularists including several women. However Libya's Berbers who make up around 10% of the population are not represented at all and yesterday (27/11/11) held protests in Tripoli against their omission. The only worrying appointment is Osama Juwali as Defence Minister. As Juwali is the commander of the Zintan militia there is a feeling that rather then being awarded the post on merit he blackmailed himself into it using Saif al-Islam Qaddafi as a bargaining chip.
As for Saif al-Islam himself he is still being held by the Zintan Brigade. He has not been charged with any crime and he has not been handed over to the Libyan government. Also on Tuesday (22/11/11) a delegation from the International Criminal Court (ICC) began a two day visit to Libya to discuss the options for putting Saif al-Islam on trial. These include sending him to the ICC for trial, Libya putting him on trial themselves or a combination of the two with Saif al-Islam going on trial in Libya but with involvement from ICC Judges and lawyers. Obviously it will take time for the Libyan government to make a decision but they can't really start to consider the options until Saif al-Islam is handed over to them.
In a worrying demonstration of a possible pro-Qaddafi insurgency there was fighting between members of a rebel militia and Qaddafi loyalists in Bani Walid on Wednesday (23/11/11). Apparently fighting broke out when the militia attempted to stop a vehicle containing a pro-Qaddafi tribal leader and local residents attacked them. The gun battle was said to last for several hours and left seven dead - five of them militia members. This comes on top of an incident earlier this month when the Zintan Brigade militia got into a battle with the Zawiya Brigade militia over territory. The battle lasted several days and only ended after the arrival of Libyan special forces under the direct command of the central government.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 10, Week 2, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 9, Week 1, Day 1." on 21/11/11.
Two days after his capture the Zintan Brigade paramilitary militia have still not handed Saif al-Islam Qaddafi over to Libya's Transitional National Council (TNC). The TNC though have promised that Saif al-Islam will receive a fair trial in Libya. This makes me think that after 40 years of Muammer Qaddafi hollowing out public institutions and amid the chaos of building a new nation out of the wreckage of civil war no-one in Libya actually understands what a "fair" trial involves.
Along with the principle of Habeas corpus which prevents a prisoner being detained indefinitely without charge a fair trial carefully balances the rights of the accused with the rights of the accuser through a system of complex legal principles. These are too many and varied to cover fully here so I'll concentrate on the two that are the most important and relevant to this case.
The first is the presumption of innocence. This means that the accused is considered wholly innocent until their guilt is proved beyond reasonable doubt. That means in order to find Saif al-Islam guilty the prosecution will not only have to prove that the acts he is accused of actually happened but that he knowingly caused them to happen. In this case that means providing documents signed by Saif al-Islam in which he ordered fighters to do certain things or providing testimony from credible witnesses that they were in the room when Saif al-Islam ordered them to do certain things. Simply saying that Saif al-Islam was a member of the then Libyan government and Libyan government forces did some bad things is not enough.
The second is the right to the best possible defence. In a fair trial Saif al-Islam will be allowed to put forward the best argument to explain why he has not committed any crime. If I was representing him I would tell him to use the defence of "what is necessary is also lawful." Taking the siege of Misrata as an example the use of indiscriminate weapons (Grad rockets, artillery etc) against a civilian population centre is undoubtedly a breach of the laws of war and a crime against humanity. However the Misrata Brigade was hiding in and amongst the civilian population and the NATO air campaign severely restricted the military options available to the then Libyan government so indiscriminate weapons were the only weapons that could be used to keep the Misrata Brigade contained. When the siege was broken the Misrata Brigade went on to commit massacres and forcibly remove black Libyans from Tawargha and surrounding villages. Therefore the lesser offence of using indiscriminate weapons became lawful because it prevented the greater crimes of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
Do we seriously think that there is a Judge, lawyer, politician or man in Libya who is going to allow Saif al-Islam to walk free on the grounds that the Misrata Brigade militia are the greater criminals and do we even think that would be a good idea. If we don't then Saif al-Islam will not receive a fair trial in Libya.
Two days after his capture the Zintan Brigade paramilitary militia have still not handed Saif al-Islam Qaddafi over to Libya's Transitional National Council (TNC). The TNC though have promised that Saif al-Islam will receive a fair trial in Libya. This makes me think that after 40 years of Muammer Qaddafi hollowing out public institutions and amid the chaos of building a new nation out of the wreckage of civil war no-one in Libya actually understands what a "fair" trial involves.
Along with the principle of Habeas corpus which prevents a prisoner being detained indefinitely without charge a fair trial carefully balances the rights of the accused with the rights of the accuser through a system of complex legal principles. These are too many and varied to cover fully here so I'll concentrate on the two that are the most important and relevant to this case.
The first is the presumption of innocence. This means that the accused is considered wholly innocent until their guilt is proved beyond reasonable doubt. That means in order to find Saif al-Islam guilty the prosecution will not only have to prove that the acts he is accused of actually happened but that he knowingly caused them to happen. In this case that means providing documents signed by Saif al-Islam in which he ordered fighters to do certain things or providing testimony from credible witnesses that they were in the room when Saif al-Islam ordered them to do certain things. Simply saying that Saif al-Islam was a member of the then Libyan government and Libyan government forces did some bad things is not enough.
The second is the right to the best possible defence. In a fair trial Saif al-Islam will be allowed to put forward the best argument to explain why he has not committed any crime. If I was representing him I would tell him to use the defence of "what is necessary is also lawful." Taking the siege of Misrata as an example the use of indiscriminate weapons (Grad rockets, artillery etc) against a civilian population centre is undoubtedly a breach of the laws of war and a crime against humanity. However the Misrata Brigade was hiding in and amongst the civilian population and the NATO air campaign severely restricted the military options available to the then Libyan government so indiscriminate weapons were the only weapons that could be used to keep the Misrata Brigade contained. When the siege was broken the Misrata Brigade went on to commit massacres and forcibly remove black Libyans from Tawargha and surrounding villages. Therefore the lesser offence of using indiscriminate weapons became lawful because it prevented the greater crimes of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
Do we seriously think that there is a Judge, lawyer, politician or man in Libya who is going to allow Saif al-Islam to walk free on the grounds that the Misrata Brigade militia are the greater criminals and do we even think that would be a good idea. If we don't then Saif al-Islam will not receive a fair trial in Libya.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 10, Week 2, Day 2.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 5, Day 2" on 20/11/11.
Although more details have begun to emerge the exact circumstances of Saif al-Islam Qaddafi's capture yesterday (19/11/11) remain distinctly opaque.
What we do know is that Saif al-Islam was travelling in a two vehicle convoy headed in the direction of Niger when it was intercepted by fighters from the northern Zintan Brigade near the southern town of Obari. According to one version of events Saif al-Islam surrendered immediately without a shot being fired. According to another version of events he only surrendered after a two hour gun battle. I have to say that neither of these versions of events seem particularly believable so I think he probably surrendered after a short exchange of fire. What I'm about to say next though is pure speculation;
I think that Saif al-Islam had informed the International Criminal Court (ICC) that he intended to travel to Niger to either continue negotiations with them or just surrender. The Zintan Brigade had been tipped off about this and moved to stop it from happening. As for who tipped off the Zintan Brigade I think Britain is the most likely suspect. Firstly they have a lot to lose if the events of the Libyan war are examined in too much detail which is what would happen if Saif al-Islam is tried at the ICC. Secondly Britain has a large incentive to open up discussions with the ICC over issues of jurisdiction in certain high profile cases. All the better if these discussions are done through an unwitting third party.
Although more details have begun to emerge the exact circumstances of Saif al-Islam Qaddafi's capture yesterday (19/11/11) remain distinctly opaque.
What we do know is that Saif al-Islam was travelling in a two vehicle convoy headed in the direction of Niger when it was intercepted by fighters from the northern Zintan Brigade near the southern town of Obari. According to one version of events Saif al-Islam surrendered immediately without a shot being fired. According to another version of events he only surrendered after a two hour gun battle. I have to say that neither of these versions of events seem particularly believable so I think he probably surrendered after a short exchange of fire. What I'm about to say next though is pure speculation;
I think that Saif al-Islam had informed the International Criminal Court (ICC) that he intended to travel to Niger to either continue negotiations with them or just surrender. The Zintan Brigade had been tipped off about this and moved to stop it from happening. As for who tipped off the Zintan Brigade I think Britain is the most likely suspect. Firstly they have a lot to lose if the events of the Libyan war are examined in too much detail which is what would happen if Saif al-Islam is tried at the ICC. Secondly Britain has a large incentive to open up discussions with the ICC over issues of jurisdiction in certain high profile cases. All the better if these discussions are done through an unwitting third party.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 10, Week 2, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 5, Day 1." on 19/11/11.
Within the last hour reports are emerging today (19/11/11) that Saif al-Islam Qaddafi has been arrested in southern Libya and is being flown by helicopter to northern Libya. Personally I believe these reports to be true but there is still deep confusion as to whether he was captured or surrendered himself through some very complex back room dealing.
Either way the capture presents a major test for the new Libya because Saif al-Islam is the subject of an active International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant. Therefore the convention is that he will now be placed in the ICC's custody and swiftly transferred to the Hague for trial. However there are certain (British) sections of the Libyan leadership who want to see Saif al-Islam tried in Libya. As Libya has nothing even closely resembling a functioning legal system this will mean a swift unfair trial leading to a swift conviction and an equally swift execution.
Within the last hour reports are emerging today (19/11/11) that Saif al-Islam Qaddafi has been arrested in southern Libya and is being flown by helicopter to northern Libya. Personally I believe these reports to be true but there is still deep confusion as to whether he was captured or surrendered himself through some very complex back room dealing.
Either way the capture presents a major test for the new Libya because Saif al-Islam is the subject of an active International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant. Therefore the convention is that he will now be placed in the ICC's custody and swiftly transferred to the Hague for trial. However there are certain (British) sections of the Libyan leadership who want to see Saif al-Islam tried in Libya. As Libya has nothing even closely resembling a functioning legal system this will mean a swift unfair trial leading to a swift conviction and an equally swift execution.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 10, Week 1, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 4, Day 1." on 12/11/11.
Over the past seven days many things have happened in Libya. People have fallen in love and got married, the old have died and the young have been born. Unfortunately I've been far too busy this week to learn about any of it in any detail.
Over the past seven days many things have happened in Libya. People have fallen in love and got married, the old have died and the young have been born. Unfortunately I've been far too busy this week to learn about any of it in any detail.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 9, Week 4, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 3, Day 1." on 5/11/11.
On Monday night (31/10/11 - 1/11/11) Libya took it's first step to forming a new government when the Transitional National Council (TNC) elected Abdurrahim al-Keib as the country's new Prime Minister. In a nation where knowledge of the oil industry is essential the US educated Professor of electrical engineering at the University of Alabama is also faculty chair at the oil company sponsored Adu Dhabi Petroleum Institute. In order to become elected al-Keib beat off challenges from Abdel Hafez Ghoka - the TNC's vice chair, Ali Zidan - the TNC's representative to Europe and Ali Tarhouni - the TNC's oil minister. al-Keib is now charged with implementing the constitutional declaration and will begin by nominating ministers to run Libya's affairs in the interim.
Meanwhile Saif al-Islam Qaddafi has still not surrendered himself to the International Criminal Court (ICC). However on Wednesday (2/11/11) the ICC did confirm that they are in negotiations with him. This is the ICC's way of warning any interested party that they are aware of his current location and would therefore notice if he were to suddenly disappear from that location. They did though suggest that he may want to move to a new, safer location. As with previous announcements on the matter the ICC were keen to stress that Saif al-Islam is innocent until proven guilty which seems to be an indication that they believe the case against him to be quite weak. Plus since the original arrest warrant was issued the credibility of his accusers (Britain and France) has deteriorated significantly. So the current barrier to Saif al-Islam handing himself in appears to be the giant leap of faith that it would take. After all it is counter intuitive to voluntarily put yourself in prison knowing full well that politics rather then justice could keep you there for the rest of your life. Surely then it would be possible for the ICC to grant Said al-Islam bail until such a time as his guilt or innocence is proved provided that he is prepared to agree to monitoring conditions to prevent him fleeing.
On Monday night (31/10/11 - 1/11/11) Libya took it's first step to forming a new government when the Transitional National Council (TNC) elected Abdurrahim al-Keib as the country's new Prime Minister. In a nation where knowledge of the oil industry is essential the US educated Professor of electrical engineering at the University of Alabama is also faculty chair at the oil company sponsored Adu Dhabi Petroleum Institute. In order to become elected al-Keib beat off challenges from Abdel Hafez Ghoka - the TNC's vice chair, Ali Zidan - the TNC's representative to Europe and Ali Tarhouni - the TNC's oil minister. al-Keib is now charged with implementing the constitutional declaration and will begin by nominating ministers to run Libya's affairs in the interim.
Meanwhile Saif al-Islam Qaddafi has still not surrendered himself to the International Criminal Court (ICC). However on Wednesday (2/11/11) the ICC did confirm that they are in negotiations with him. This is the ICC's way of warning any interested party that they are aware of his current location and would therefore notice if he were to suddenly disappear from that location. They did though suggest that he may want to move to a new, safer location. As with previous announcements on the matter the ICC were keen to stress that Saif al-Islam is innocent until proven guilty which seems to be an indication that they believe the case against him to be quite weak. Plus since the original arrest warrant was issued the credibility of his accusers (Britain and France) has deteriorated significantly. So the current barrier to Saif al-Islam handing himself in appears to be the giant leap of faith that it would take. After all it is counter intuitive to voluntarily put yourself in prison knowing full well that politics rather then justice could keep you there for the rest of your life. Surely then it would be possible for the ICC to grant Said al-Islam bail until such a time as his guilt or innocence is proved provided that he is prepared to agree to monitoring conditions to prevent him fleeing.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 9, Week 3, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 2, Day 1." on 29/10/11.
On Sunday (23/10/11) the Transitional National Council (TNC) declared Libya to be liberated and pledged to institute democracy within eight months. What they actually mean is that they will follow the process laid out in the 11 page Constitutional Declaration document. This requires them to elect, by public vote, an all male National Public Conference (NPC) within 240 days. The NPC will then write a new constitution that will be put to a national referendum. Assuming the constitution adopted by the referendum requires democratic elections to be held they will take place 180 days after the adoption of the constitution. In the meantime the TNC have immediately abolished all national laws that contradict Sharia Law. This means that Libya is currently being run under Sharia Law with a particular focus on allowing men to take multiple wives. As I've yet to hear a single female voice represented in the TNC this does not bode well for the future of women's rights in the new Libya.
Last Friday (21/10/11) NATO provisionally decided to end operations in Libya on Monday (31/10/11). On Thursday (27/10/11) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously voted to pass resolution 2016 which removed NATO's mandate to operate in Libya. This forced NATO's hand and they will now definitely end operations in Libya at 23:59 GMT on Monday October 31st. However there are factions within the TNC who want to invite NATO to stay on. This seems like a sensible idea because with all the weapons and the war damage the task the TNC faces now is probably more difficult then when the were fighting Qaddafi.
Throughout the week more and more details have emerged detailing the circumstances of Muammer Qaddafi's death. Although there is no video of the actual killing there is video showing the initial capture, video showing Qaddafi being transferred from the captors to another group of rebels, a video showing Qaddafi being sexually assaulted/raped prior to death and a video showing the moments just after death. In the transfer and aftermath videos men can be seen wearing military uniforms used by the armies of Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) nations such as Qatar and Bahrain but not displaying any identifying insignia. The men are also apparently speaking Arabic with a Gulf region accent that is very different from Libyan Arabic. This coupled with the manner of Qaddafi's death has led to international calls for an investigation. The current theory is that either Libyan rebels trained and taking orders from British special forces were told to kill Qaddafi to make sure that he didn't stand trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) or that special forces from a GCC country - most likely Qatar - who are themselves trained by Britain were sent to do the job themselves. In response the TNC have announced that they will put Qaddafi's killers on trial. What they mean is that they intend to convict a man who posted a video of himself admitting the killing on the Internet in the hope that he will become a local hero and the whole matter will be forgotten about.
On Tuesday (25/10/11) the TNC finally buried Muammer Qaddafi at a secret location in the desert after his body had been left on public display in Misrata for five days. Although gruesome and totally against Islamic tradition this was sadly necessary to allow as many people as possible to see that Qaddafi is dead and take pictures and video of the corpse. You have to remember that in attacking Libya Britain did not merely want to replace a government that wouldn't sell it oil with one that would. Instead they wanted to create a war torn and full blown failed state into which the oil companies backed by their private armies of security contractors would go and pump the oil out more or less for free. To this end numerous conspiracy theories have started to circulate claiming that Qaddafi isn't really dead and is instead living in places like Zimbabwe, Niger or Algeria. These rumours are backed by very obviously faked pictures of Qaddafi's corpse and "expert" analysis claiming that genuine photographs and videos are actually fake. The idea is to encourage Libyan government forces to continue the fight by mounting an Iraq style insurgency that will tear the country to pieces. Therefore the best way for genuine Libyans to resist the invaders and occupiers now is by laying down their weapons.
On Sunday (23/10/11) the Transitional National Council (TNC) declared Libya to be liberated and pledged to institute democracy within eight months. What they actually mean is that they will follow the process laid out in the 11 page Constitutional Declaration document. This requires them to elect, by public vote, an all male National Public Conference (NPC) within 240 days. The NPC will then write a new constitution that will be put to a national referendum. Assuming the constitution adopted by the referendum requires democratic elections to be held they will take place 180 days after the adoption of the constitution. In the meantime the TNC have immediately abolished all national laws that contradict Sharia Law. This means that Libya is currently being run under Sharia Law with a particular focus on allowing men to take multiple wives. As I've yet to hear a single female voice represented in the TNC this does not bode well for the future of women's rights in the new Libya.
Last Friday (21/10/11) NATO provisionally decided to end operations in Libya on Monday (31/10/11). On Thursday (27/10/11) the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously voted to pass resolution 2016 which removed NATO's mandate to operate in Libya. This forced NATO's hand and they will now definitely end operations in Libya at 23:59 GMT on Monday October 31st. However there are factions within the TNC who want to invite NATO to stay on. This seems like a sensible idea because with all the weapons and the war damage the task the TNC faces now is probably more difficult then when the were fighting Qaddafi.
Throughout the week more and more details have emerged detailing the circumstances of Muammer Qaddafi's death. Although there is no video of the actual killing there is video showing the initial capture, video showing Qaddafi being transferred from the captors to another group of rebels, a video showing Qaddafi being sexually assaulted/raped prior to death and a video showing the moments just after death. In the transfer and aftermath videos men can be seen wearing military uniforms used by the armies of Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) nations such as Qatar and Bahrain but not displaying any identifying insignia. The men are also apparently speaking Arabic with a Gulf region accent that is very different from Libyan Arabic. This coupled with the manner of Qaddafi's death has led to international calls for an investigation. The current theory is that either Libyan rebels trained and taking orders from British special forces were told to kill Qaddafi to make sure that he didn't stand trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) or that special forces from a GCC country - most likely Qatar - who are themselves trained by Britain were sent to do the job themselves. In response the TNC have announced that they will put Qaddafi's killers on trial. What they mean is that they intend to convict a man who posted a video of himself admitting the killing on the Internet in the hope that he will become a local hero and the whole matter will be forgotten about.
On Tuesday (25/10/11) the TNC finally buried Muammer Qaddafi at a secret location in the desert after his body had been left on public display in Misrata for five days. Although gruesome and totally against Islamic tradition this was sadly necessary to allow as many people as possible to see that Qaddafi is dead and take pictures and video of the corpse. You have to remember that in attacking Libya Britain did not merely want to replace a government that wouldn't sell it oil with one that would. Instead they wanted to create a war torn and full blown failed state into which the oil companies backed by their private armies of security contractors would go and pump the oil out more or less for free. To this end numerous conspiracy theories have started to circulate claiming that Qaddafi isn't really dead and is instead living in places like Zimbabwe, Niger or Algeria. These rumours are backed by very obviously faked pictures of Qaddafi's corpse and "expert" analysis claiming that genuine photographs and videos are actually fake. The idea is to encourage Libyan government forces to continue the fight by mounting an Iraq style insurgency that will tear the country to pieces. Therefore the best way for genuine Libyans to resist the invaders and occupiers now is by laying down their weapons.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 9, Week 2, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 1, Day1." on 22/10/11.
This past week NATO forces have been in action in Kosovo. That war was supposed to have ended twelve years ago. So you'll excuse me if I don't rush to think up a new thread title even if Sarkozy's latest tantrum has caused NATO to leave Free Libya to it's fate.
This past week NATO forces have been in action in Kosovo. That war was supposed to have ended twelve years ago. So you'll excuse me if I don't rush to think up a new thread title even if Sarkozy's latest tantrum has caused NATO to leave Free Libya to it's fate.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 9, Week 2, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 5, Day 1." on 20/10/11.
Last Friday (14/10/11) residents of Tripoli attempted to raise the Libyan flag over the city in protest against the rebel's Transitional National Council's (TNC) occupation of the city. They were quickly attacked by rebel fighters leading to a two day gun battle. Libyan government and rebel fighters continue to clash in and around the village of Tarhouna just south of Tripoli.
On Sunday (16/10/11 rebel fighters attacked the town of Bani Walid in a pincer movement from the north and south. Although the rebels sustained what their commanders would only describe as "heavy" casualties by Monday (17/10/11) they claimed to be in control of 90% of the town. However they were also claiming that Saif al-Islam was still enable to enjoy freedom of movement across large areas.
At around 08:00 local time today (20/10/11) rebel fighters backed by NATO air support launched a large scale offensive against the last areas still held by Libyan government forces. By around midday the rebel flag had been raised over the Dollar holiday resort and victory was claimed. The rebels have also since claimed to have captured and then killed Muammer Qaddafi.
Coming just two days before the psychologically important start of the eighth month of the conflict and in a week where the rebels have also claimed to have killed Khamis Qaddafi for the ninth time many people are still skeptical about these claims. The rebels are not amongst them instead proudly chanting "The Fuzzy head is dead!" This childlike chant sounds almost cute until you realise that Libyan Jews are frequently categorised by their frizzy hair and at least one town in Israel has offered sanctuary to the Qaddafi family.
Edited at about 17:30 to add: The Rebel Transitional National Council (TNC) have officially confirmed Muammer Qaddafi's death.
Mimicking the killing of Osama bin Laden they claimed that rebel fighters raided a building containing Qaddafi and during a fire fight he was shot in the head. He then miraculously survived a 250km (155mile) ambulance ride to Misrata where he died. This will especially please the people of Misrata who feel they are being left out of the TNC but considering the way they behaved in Tarwargha that's only reasonable.
Unfortunately long before the TNC made their statement footage had already emerged of rebel fighters explaining how they'd found Qaddafi hiding in a storm drain. He handed them his golden pistol and asked them not to shoot while surrendering. Footage also emerged of rebel fighters essentially playing with Qaddafi's corpse on a pick up truck. Al Jazeera are also showing grainy footage of Qaddafi being manhandled by what appears to be a muscled white man. It is claimed this footage was filmed moments before Qaddafi was shot in the head.
So what appears to have happened is that Qaddafi was captured by rebel fighters before the SAS turned up and executed him. After all this is the best way of making sure that none of the wild claims used to start this war will ever be tested at the International Criminal Court (ICC). It's also probably why British Prime Minister David Cameron looks like he'll be the last world leader to confirm that Muammer Qaddafi is dead while he tries to run the "I only heard about it on CNN" defence.
Edited again at around 20:15: US President Barack Obama has given his reaction to the death of Muammer Qaddafi. Being the brilliant orator he is he perfectly summed up Americas involvement in Libya by making a huge, clanging mistake. He said that the mission had been achieved without a single American boot on the ground. Unfortunately on March 21st two US airmen bailed out their F-15 Strike Eagle and were recovered by a Marine recovery team. While I don't dispute America's right to recover downed airmen I'm guessing they weren't wearing flip flops.
Last Friday (14/10/11) residents of Tripoli attempted to raise the Libyan flag over the city in protest against the rebel's Transitional National Council's (TNC) occupation of the city. They were quickly attacked by rebel fighters leading to a two day gun battle. Libyan government and rebel fighters continue to clash in and around the village of Tarhouna just south of Tripoli.
On Sunday (16/10/11 rebel fighters attacked the town of Bani Walid in a pincer movement from the north and south. Although the rebels sustained what their commanders would only describe as "heavy" casualties by Monday (17/10/11) they claimed to be in control of 90% of the town. However they were also claiming that Saif al-Islam was still enable to enjoy freedom of movement across large areas.
At around 08:00 local time today (20/10/11) rebel fighters backed by NATO air support launched a large scale offensive against the last areas still held by Libyan government forces. By around midday the rebel flag had been raised over the Dollar holiday resort and victory was claimed. The rebels have also since claimed to have captured and then killed Muammer Qaddafi.
Coming just two days before the psychologically important start of the eighth month of the conflict and in a week where the rebels have also claimed to have killed Khamis Qaddafi for the ninth time many people are still skeptical about these claims. The rebels are not amongst them instead proudly chanting "The Fuzzy head is dead!" This childlike chant sounds almost cute until you realise that Libyan Jews are frequently categorised by their frizzy hair and at least one town in Israel has offered sanctuary to the Qaddafi family.
Edited at about 17:30 to add: The Rebel Transitional National Council (TNC) have officially confirmed Muammer Qaddafi's death.
Mimicking the killing of Osama bin Laden they claimed that rebel fighters raided a building containing Qaddafi and during a fire fight he was shot in the head. He then miraculously survived a 250km (155mile) ambulance ride to Misrata where he died. This will especially please the people of Misrata who feel they are being left out of the TNC but considering the way they behaved in Tarwargha that's only reasonable.
Unfortunately long before the TNC made their statement footage had already emerged of rebel fighters explaining how they'd found Qaddafi hiding in a storm drain. He handed them his golden pistol and asked them not to shoot while surrendering. Footage also emerged of rebel fighters essentially playing with Qaddafi's corpse on a pick up truck. Al Jazeera are also showing grainy footage of Qaddafi being manhandled by what appears to be a muscled white man. It is claimed this footage was filmed moments before Qaddafi was shot in the head.
So what appears to have happened is that Qaddafi was captured by rebel fighters before the SAS turned up and executed him. After all this is the best way of making sure that none of the wild claims used to start this war will ever be tested at the International Criminal Court (ICC). It's also probably why British Prime Minister David Cameron looks like he'll be the last world leader to confirm that Muammer Qaddafi is dead while he tries to run the "I only heard about it on CNN" defence.
Edited again at around 20:15: US President Barack Obama has given his reaction to the death of Muammer Qaddafi. Being the brilliant orator he is he perfectly summed up Americas involvement in Libya by making a huge, clanging mistake. He said that the mission had been achieved without a single American boot on the ground. Unfortunately on March 21st two US airmen bailed out their F-15 Strike Eagle and were recovered by a Marine recovery team. While I don't dispute America's right to recover downed airmen I'm guessing they weren't wearing flip flops.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 9, Week 1, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 4, Day 1." on 13/10/11.
With the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) claiming that victory will be declared once Sirte falls all eyes this past week have been on the battle for the coastal city. The only problem is that the residents of Sirte don't seem to want the TNC taking over and have been fighting back hard.
Last Thursday (6/10/11) the defenders of Sirte mounted a counter offensive that pushed the rebels back to positions in the Bouhadi district and the city's sea and air ports. On Saturday (8/10/11) the rebels opened up a new front by attacking from the south. By Sunday (9/10/11) they'd succeeded in capturing the main hospital, the university and the Ouagadougo conference centre. By Tuesday (11/10/11) the rebels had succeeded in capturing the police headquarters trapping government forces in a small area of a few streets near to the harbour. However yesterday (12/10/11) government forces again rallied forcing the rebels back to the police headquarters from where they've been forced to resort to long range artillery and rocket fire. As usual the TNC have tried to cover up this set back by announcing the killing or capture of one of Qaddafi's sons.
Away from the fighting Amnesty International today (13/10/11) published a report into the abuse of people detained by the TNC. The report found that the rebels routinely rounded up men, women and children without any justification and that black Libyans were most likely to be targeted on account of their skin colour. Once detained the men were bound, blindfolded, beaten - sometimes to death, burned and occasionally shot. The women were raped and sexually assaulted. Prisoners of both genders were routinely mocked and verbally abused with "Slave" seeming to be the most popular insult.
This report comes despite Amnesty International officials meeting with senior members of the TNC to remind them of their obligations under international law following the publication of their "The Battle for Libya: Killings, Disappearances and Torture.
With the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) claiming that victory will be declared once Sirte falls all eyes this past week have been on the battle for the coastal city. The only problem is that the residents of Sirte don't seem to want the TNC taking over and have been fighting back hard.
Last Thursday (6/10/11) the defenders of Sirte mounted a counter offensive that pushed the rebels back to positions in the Bouhadi district and the city's sea and air ports. On Saturday (8/10/11) the rebels opened up a new front by attacking from the south. By Sunday (9/10/11) they'd succeeded in capturing the main hospital, the university and the Ouagadougo conference centre. By Tuesday (11/10/11) the rebels had succeeded in capturing the police headquarters trapping government forces in a small area of a few streets near to the harbour. However yesterday (12/10/11) government forces again rallied forcing the rebels back to the police headquarters from where they've been forced to resort to long range artillery and rocket fire. As usual the TNC have tried to cover up this set back by announcing the killing or capture of one of Qaddafi's sons.
Away from the fighting Amnesty International today (13/10/11) published a report into the abuse of people detained by the TNC. The report found that the rebels routinely rounded up men, women and children without any justification and that black Libyans were most likely to be targeted on account of their skin colour. Once detained the men were bound, blindfolded, beaten - sometimes to death, burned and occasionally shot. The women were raped and sexually assaulted. Prisoners of both genders were routinely mocked and verbally abused with "Slave" seeming to be the most popular insult.
This report comes despite Amnesty International officials meeting with senior members of the TNC to remind them of their obligations under international law following the publication of their "The Battle for Libya: Killings, Disappearances and Torture.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 4, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 3, Day 1." on 6/10/11.
Over the weekend the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) went back on an earlier claim that it won't form a new executive committee/political cabinet until the fighting has ended by announcing a new executive committee/political cabinet. However this seems to be little more then a publicity stunt because the only notable changes are the appointment of Hamza Abu Fas as Minister for Islam and the Prime Minister Mahmoud Jabril sacking his deputy and also taking on the role of Foreign Minister. It was also announced that this executive committee would disbanded and a new one appointed within one month of "liberation." Liberation appears to be defined as the fall of Sirte rather then fall of the entire country or the capture of Muammer Qaddafi.
How long it will take for Sirte to fall is hard to gauge. The rebels launched a fresh, large offensive on Monday (3/10/11) and were able to add the Bouhadi district to the districts near the air and sea ports as parts of the city under their control. However overnight (5/10/11 - 6/10/11) Libyan government forces have staged a significant fightback and control of the Bouhadi district is currently being fought over. Meanwhile the Red Cross/Crescent have warned that the rebel's siege of Sirte has caused a humanitarian crisis. The situation in the city is said to be dire with the main threats to civilians coming from the rebels and the NATO bombs being dropped to protect civilians.
Although access is even more difficult there I suspect that a similar humanitarian crisis is developing in Bani Walid which has been under rebel siege for over a month but remains firmly under government control.
In Sabha operation bribe appears to have worked. Following the rebels disbursement of 20 million Libyan Dinar opposition in the town suddenly ceased and the rebels are now in full control. One their first acts in charge was to deport 1200 black Libyans to Chad, stripping them of the Libyan citizenship granted to them by Muammer Qaddafi.
Over the weekend the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) went back on an earlier claim that it won't form a new executive committee/political cabinet until the fighting has ended by announcing a new executive committee/political cabinet. However this seems to be little more then a publicity stunt because the only notable changes are the appointment of Hamza Abu Fas as Minister for Islam and the Prime Minister Mahmoud Jabril sacking his deputy and also taking on the role of Foreign Minister. It was also announced that this executive committee would disbanded and a new one appointed within one month of "liberation." Liberation appears to be defined as the fall of Sirte rather then fall of the entire country or the capture of Muammer Qaddafi.
How long it will take for Sirte to fall is hard to gauge. The rebels launched a fresh, large offensive on Monday (3/10/11) and were able to add the Bouhadi district to the districts near the air and sea ports as parts of the city under their control. However overnight (5/10/11 - 6/10/11) Libyan government forces have staged a significant fightback and control of the Bouhadi district is currently being fought over. Meanwhile the Red Cross/Crescent have warned that the rebel's siege of Sirte has caused a humanitarian crisis. The situation in the city is said to be dire with the main threats to civilians coming from the rebels and the NATO bombs being dropped to protect civilians.
Although access is even more difficult there I suspect that a similar humanitarian crisis is developing in Bani Walid which has been under rebel siege for over a month but remains firmly under government control.
In Sabha operation bribe appears to have worked. Following the rebels disbursement of 20 million Libyan Dinar opposition in the town suddenly ceased and the rebels are now in full control. One their first acts in charge was to deport 1200 black Libyans to Chad, stripping them of the Libyan citizenship granted to them by Muammer Qaddafi.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 3, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 2, Day 1." on 29/9/11.
On Saturday (24/9/11) Mahmoud Jabril of the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) gave his first speech representing Libya at the United Nations General Assembly. To co-incide with this the rebels mounted another assault on Sirte. As of today (29/9/11) they have entered the city from the east and with the support of NATO air strikes have taken control of Sirte's air and sea ports. This is roughly as far into Sirte as they got on their last assault before being turned back by strong resistance for Libyan government forces.
At Bani Walid the situation remains unchanged with government forces keeping the rebels pinned down on outside the city. On Tuesday (27/9/11) the rebels suffered a significant set back when Dauo al-Salhine al-Jadak - the rebels battlefield commander in charge of the Bani Walid operation - and members of his command cell were killed by government rockets.
At Sabha the rebels advance has ground to a halt with them being unable to expand their control of the city beyond the districts around the airport and the city centre. As a result they seem to have changed tactic flying some 20 million Libyan Dinar into the area in an attempt to buy support from the defenders of the city. This does not bode well for a post-Qaddafi Libya because it suggests a nation populated by disparate and heavily armed groups all out for what they can get rather then being united by some sort of revolutionary ideal. That would put Libya in a prime position to become the next Afghanistan, Somalia or Democratic Republic of Congo.
As for Muammer Qaddafi himself the rebels now believe that he is located in Ghadamis on the Tunisian border. If this is true then it is really bad news for the rebels because Ghadamis was one of the first towns the rebels seized on their Nafusa mountains offensive and from where they mounted their assault on Tripoli. So if Qaddafi and government forces have been able to travel from Tripoli to Ghadamis then the rebels have no where near the level of control they claim to exert over the country and instead seem to be rushing from battle to battle rather then securing and holding territory.
This culture of chaos has been reinforced by the announcement that the rebels have once again failed to form an executive committee/political cabinet. Instead they have announced that they do not intend to form a government until after the fighting has ended and Qaddafi has been captured. This is a shame because the prolonged fighting should provide the time for the rebels to iron out any problems with that new government before it actually has to run the country. Plus the way the fighting is going it also means that Libya could be without a functioning government for a very long time to come.
Meanwhile the French oil company Total and the Italian oil company Eni have both restarted oil production in Libya.
On Saturday (24/9/11) Mahmoud Jabril of the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) gave his first speech representing Libya at the United Nations General Assembly. To co-incide with this the rebels mounted another assault on Sirte. As of today (29/9/11) they have entered the city from the east and with the support of NATO air strikes have taken control of Sirte's air and sea ports. This is roughly as far into Sirte as they got on their last assault before being turned back by strong resistance for Libyan government forces.
At Bani Walid the situation remains unchanged with government forces keeping the rebels pinned down on outside the city. On Tuesday (27/9/11) the rebels suffered a significant set back when Dauo al-Salhine al-Jadak - the rebels battlefield commander in charge of the Bani Walid operation - and members of his command cell were killed by government rockets.
At Sabha the rebels advance has ground to a halt with them being unable to expand their control of the city beyond the districts around the airport and the city centre. As a result they seem to have changed tactic flying some 20 million Libyan Dinar into the area in an attempt to buy support from the defenders of the city. This does not bode well for a post-Qaddafi Libya because it suggests a nation populated by disparate and heavily armed groups all out for what they can get rather then being united by some sort of revolutionary ideal. That would put Libya in a prime position to become the next Afghanistan, Somalia or Democratic Republic of Congo.
As for Muammer Qaddafi himself the rebels now believe that he is located in Ghadamis on the Tunisian border. If this is true then it is really bad news for the rebels because Ghadamis was one of the first towns the rebels seized on their Nafusa mountains offensive and from where they mounted their assault on Tripoli. So if Qaddafi and government forces have been able to travel from Tripoli to Ghadamis then the rebels have no where near the level of control they claim to exert over the country and instead seem to be rushing from battle to battle rather then securing and holding territory.
This culture of chaos has been reinforced by the announcement that the rebels have once again failed to form an executive committee/political cabinet. Instead they have announced that they do not intend to form a government until after the fighting has ended and Qaddafi has been captured. This is a shame because the prolonged fighting should provide the time for the rebels to iron out any problems with that new government before it actually has to run the country. Plus the way the fighting is going it also means that Libya could be without a functioning government for a very long time to come.
Meanwhile the French oil company Total and the Italian oil company Eni have both restarted oil production in Libya.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 2, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 1, Day 1." on 22/9/11.
In Libya the situations around Sirte and Bani Walid remain unchanged with Libyan government forces keeping the rebels pinned down outside of the cities. In Sabha rebel forces have succeeded in holding onto the district around the airport and appear to have been able to extend their control to the district around the city centre.
The big development though is that yesterday (21/9/11) NATO extended their mission for another 90 days taking it up to December 25th - Christmas day. Although it took a very long time to get all NATO members to agree to this extension has seemed likely ever since the United States indicated that they will continue the operation with or without a NATO mandate. While the United States has avoided taking part in combat missions in Libya it provides around 80% of the tanker flights that make the patrol and strike flights possible. They also provide the bulk of the battlefield intelligence which identifies the targets for the strike missions. So if the US is prepared to continue these operations without a NATO mandate it would make little practical difference if NATO withdrew it's mandate.
I'm actually surprised that the US hasn't made more of it's central role in continuing the operations against Libya because it would fit in perfectly with the game their playing at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to trick the body into supporting the Palestinian statehood plan.
Over the last couple of days the US has made a lot of noise about their efforts to discourage the Palestinians from continuing with their plan. However it looks like the US is doing just enough to make it seem like they're making an effort but not enough to actually achieve anything. Then in his speech to the UNGA yesterday (21/9/11) US President Barack Obama specifically warned against the Palestinian plan. He then went on to justify the US' wars against Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya along with their killing of Osama bin Laden - all things that have damaged the US' reputation especially amongst Muslim nations. He also went on to effectively call for the violent overthrow of Israel's enemies in Syria in the name of the Arab Spring while calling for compromise on the part of demonstrators in Arab nations like Bahrain where the US has close relations with the dictators the people are trying to overthrow. At times Obama also seemed to be using his speech to appeal to voters in his country which is highly disrespectful to the assembled world leaders he was supposed to be addressing. So Obama seemed to be playing the role of the ugly American in order to provoke the UNGA into supporting the Palestinian plan in order to punish him.
This was alongside the speech of French President Nicholas Sarkozy. Under a previous President France was a very vocal opponent to the US' invasion of Iraq and won a lot of friends in Muslim countries in doing so. In his speech Sarkozy spoke quite strongly in support of the Palestinian plan even repeating the Israeli claim that failing to give Palestine statehood would provoke a violent Palestinian uprising. So the allies on Libya - Sarkozy and Obama - seem to be teaming up again to use a combination of perceived American unpopularity combined with perceived French popularity to generate support for the Palestinian plan.
In Libya the situations around Sirte and Bani Walid remain unchanged with Libyan government forces keeping the rebels pinned down outside of the cities. In Sabha rebel forces have succeeded in holding onto the district around the airport and appear to have been able to extend their control to the district around the city centre.
The big development though is that yesterday (21/9/11) NATO extended their mission for another 90 days taking it up to December 25th - Christmas day. Although it took a very long time to get all NATO members to agree to this extension has seemed likely ever since the United States indicated that they will continue the operation with or without a NATO mandate. While the United States has avoided taking part in combat missions in Libya it provides around 80% of the tanker flights that make the patrol and strike flights possible. They also provide the bulk of the battlefield intelligence which identifies the targets for the strike missions. So if the US is prepared to continue these operations without a NATO mandate it would make little practical difference if NATO withdrew it's mandate.
I'm actually surprised that the US hasn't made more of it's central role in continuing the operations against Libya because it would fit in perfectly with the game their playing at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to trick the body into supporting the Palestinian statehood plan.
Over the last couple of days the US has made a lot of noise about their efforts to discourage the Palestinians from continuing with their plan. However it looks like the US is doing just enough to make it seem like they're making an effort but not enough to actually achieve anything. Then in his speech to the UNGA yesterday (21/9/11) US President Barack Obama specifically warned against the Palestinian plan. He then went on to justify the US' wars against Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya along with their killing of Osama bin Laden - all things that have damaged the US' reputation especially amongst Muslim nations. He also went on to effectively call for the violent overthrow of Israel's enemies in Syria in the name of the Arab Spring while calling for compromise on the part of demonstrators in Arab nations like Bahrain where the US has close relations with the dictators the people are trying to overthrow. At times Obama also seemed to be using his speech to appeal to voters in his country which is highly disrespectful to the assembled world leaders he was supposed to be addressing. So Obama seemed to be playing the role of the ugly American in order to provoke the UNGA into supporting the Palestinian plan in order to punish him.
This was alongside the speech of French President Nicholas Sarkozy. Under a previous President France was a very vocal opponent to the US' invasion of Iraq and won a lot of friends in Muslim countries in doing so. In his speech Sarkozy spoke quite strongly in support of the Palestinian plan even repeating the Israeli claim that failing to give Palestine statehood would provoke a violent Palestinian uprising. So the allies on Libya - Sarkozy and Obama - seem to be teaming up again to use a combination of perceived American unpopularity combined with perceived French popularity to generate support for the Palestinian plan.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 2, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 5, Day 1." on 20/9/11.
In Libya this week things have remained pretty much dead locked. On Thursday (15/9/11) French President Nicholas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron both paid a joint visit to both Tripoli and Benghazi to celebrate the rebel victory that has yet to arrive. Their visit acting as a catalyst for a large rebel offensive on Sirte, Bani Walid and Sabha at the edges of the large section of the country still under the control of the Libyan government.
At Bani Walid the rebel assault was quickly turned back by Libyan government forces as was a second assault on Friday (16/9/11). The rebels now claim that they are waiting for civilians to leave the area before attempting another assault. At Sirte the rebels had slightly more success making advances throughout Thursday and Friday with the help of NATO air support. By Saturday (17/9/11) though Libyan government forces succeeded in halting the rebels some 40km (25 miles) outside the city where they remain. At Sabha the rebels were able to capture the district surrounding the airport by Monday (19/9/11). They are currently trying to consolidate their position amid fierce street to street fighting.
The rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) remains in chaos. On Sunday (18/9/11) they once again failed to form an executive committee/political cabinet meaning that the TNC currently consists of just the President Mustafa Abdel Jalil and the Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril.
On the diplomatic front the TNC were given last minute permission to attend the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Libya's behalf. This allowed a meeting of the International Contact Group on Libya to be held as a side event at the UNGA today (20/9/11). So far all that's been announced is that the United States will re-open it's Embassy in Tripoli and it will be the UN's responsibility to deal with Libya's overland river network that was destroyed by NATO bombing creating a drought and possible humanitarian crisis in Libya.
In Libya this week things have remained pretty much dead locked. On Thursday (15/9/11) French President Nicholas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron both paid a joint visit to both Tripoli and Benghazi to celebrate the rebel victory that has yet to arrive. Their visit acting as a catalyst for a large rebel offensive on Sirte, Bani Walid and Sabha at the edges of the large section of the country still under the control of the Libyan government.
At Bani Walid the rebel assault was quickly turned back by Libyan government forces as was a second assault on Friday (16/9/11). The rebels now claim that they are waiting for civilians to leave the area before attempting another assault. At Sirte the rebels had slightly more success making advances throughout Thursday and Friday with the help of NATO air support. By Saturday (17/9/11) though Libyan government forces succeeded in halting the rebels some 40km (25 miles) outside the city where they remain. At Sabha the rebels were able to capture the district surrounding the airport by Monday (19/9/11). They are currently trying to consolidate their position amid fierce street to street fighting.
The rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) remains in chaos. On Sunday (18/9/11) they once again failed to form an executive committee/political cabinet meaning that the TNC currently consists of just the President Mustafa Abdel Jalil and the Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril.
On the diplomatic front the TNC were given last minute permission to attend the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Libya's behalf. This allowed a meeting of the International Contact Group on Libya to be held as a side event at the UNGA today (20/9/11). So far all that's been announced is that the United States will re-open it's Embassy in Tripoli and it will be the UN's responsibility to deal with Libya's overland river network that was destroyed by NATO bombing creating a drought and possible humanitarian crisis in Libya.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 8, Week 1, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 4, Day 1." on 13/9/11.
On Friday (9/9/11) Libyan rebels launched their long promised assault on Bani Walid in the west of the country. They claim that artillery fire from Libyan government positions forced them to mount the assault the day before the promised deadline for surrender. On Saturday (10/9/11) the rebels were forced to pause their assault while NATO aircraft attacked Libyan government forces on the road into the town. On Sunday (11/9/11) the rebels had reached the gates of the town and begun street to street fighting. By Monday (12/9/11) fierce resistance by the residents of Bani Walid which saw the rebels take an average of a dozen casualties a day forced the rebels to abandon their assault.
Also on Monday Libyan government forces counter-attacked from Sirte mounting an assault on the town of Ras Lanuf although these seem to be smash and grab raids rather then a full scale military break out.
On Saturday (10/9/11) the leader of the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC), Mustafa Abdel Jalil, made his first visit to Tripoli and gave his first speech there. Although billed as a "Declaration of Liberation" this is actually an attempt by the 40 strong group of Benghazi lawyers that make up the TNC to impose their rule on the west of the country. This will be no simple task because the Tripoli rebels have already rejected the TNC's choice of local military commander, appointed their own and are refusing to follow orders from the TNC's National Liberation Army (NLA). Meanwhile fighters from Misrata and the Berber tribal regions seem to want to have nothing to do with the TNC.
The task of bring these disparate groups together is not going to be made any easier by a report published by Amnesty International today (13/9/11). This report finds rebels in the east of the country responsible for multiple atrocities and possible war crimes including the use of indiscriminate weapons against civilians, multiple racist killings, abductions and kidnappings, mistreatment of prisoners including beatings, torture and rape and the deliberate killing of civilians in order to pass them off as victims of Libyan government atrocities - so called "black propaganda." The report calls on the TNC to bring those rebels responsible to justice but only covers the period up to the end of July so misses out August's assault on Tripoli where the worst rebel atrocities are said to have been committed and they're still recovering bodies by the dozen.
The most interesting development of the week though hasn't really involved any Libyans at all but has focused on the main objective of the operation - who gets the oil. Last Monday (5/9/11) the Chinese government were forced to comment on documents leaked by a Canadian newspaper that detail a meeting between Libyan government officials and a Chinese arms manufacturer as recently as July 2011. The meeting itself isn't that interesting because it took place without the Chinese government's knowledge, no deal was done and no weapons were supplied. The leaking to the documents is very interesting though. On one level it was designed to make it difficult for the TNC to sign deals with Chinese rather then British oil companies by presenting China as an ally of Qaddafi in the Libyan public consciousness. On another level it was designed to put pressure on the United States to continue the NATO mission in support of the rebellion by raising the threat that Libya's oil will go to China should that rebellion fail.
At the start of the mission against Libya support amongst NATO members other then Britain, France and Canada was very low. As the mission has dragged on and it's true objective has become clear that support has all but disappeared making it unlikely that the NATO mandate will continue beyond September 27th. However as always the key player is the United States because if it is prepared to continue military action against Libya without a NATO mandate then very little will change so the other NATO members may well put aside their objections and continue the mandate in the interests of harmony within the alliance.
The leak of the China meeting also adds a new dimension to last weeks Nevada shooting in the US because the shooter used a Chinese AK-47 which has been banned from import into the US since about 1994. This led to a dialogue between the US and China over the issue of importing weapons despite arms embargoes. The result was that China dropped it's objections allowing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to officially recognise the TNC and today (13/9/11) China itself has also recognised the TNC. This seems to put China back in pole position in the race for Libya's oil because the Chinese approach to trade deals is all about business rather then honouring war time allegiances so they're likely to offer the highest price.
On Friday (9/9/11) Libyan rebels launched their long promised assault on Bani Walid in the west of the country. They claim that artillery fire from Libyan government positions forced them to mount the assault the day before the promised deadline for surrender. On Saturday (10/9/11) the rebels were forced to pause their assault while NATO aircraft attacked Libyan government forces on the road into the town. On Sunday (11/9/11) the rebels had reached the gates of the town and begun street to street fighting. By Monday (12/9/11) fierce resistance by the residents of Bani Walid which saw the rebels take an average of a dozen casualties a day forced the rebels to abandon their assault.
Also on Monday Libyan government forces counter-attacked from Sirte mounting an assault on the town of Ras Lanuf although these seem to be smash and grab raids rather then a full scale military break out.
On Saturday (10/9/11) the leader of the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC), Mustafa Abdel Jalil, made his first visit to Tripoli and gave his first speech there. Although billed as a "Declaration of Liberation" this is actually an attempt by the 40 strong group of Benghazi lawyers that make up the TNC to impose their rule on the west of the country. This will be no simple task because the Tripoli rebels have already rejected the TNC's choice of local military commander, appointed their own and are refusing to follow orders from the TNC's National Liberation Army (NLA). Meanwhile fighters from Misrata and the Berber tribal regions seem to want to have nothing to do with the TNC.
The task of bring these disparate groups together is not going to be made any easier by a report published by Amnesty International today (13/9/11). This report finds rebels in the east of the country responsible for multiple atrocities and possible war crimes including the use of indiscriminate weapons against civilians, multiple racist killings, abductions and kidnappings, mistreatment of prisoners including beatings, torture and rape and the deliberate killing of civilians in order to pass them off as victims of Libyan government atrocities - so called "black propaganda." The report calls on the TNC to bring those rebels responsible to justice but only covers the period up to the end of July so misses out August's assault on Tripoli where the worst rebel atrocities are said to have been committed and they're still recovering bodies by the dozen.
The most interesting development of the week though hasn't really involved any Libyans at all but has focused on the main objective of the operation - who gets the oil. Last Monday (5/9/11) the Chinese government were forced to comment on documents leaked by a Canadian newspaper that detail a meeting between Libyan government officials and a Chinese arms manufacturer as recently as July 2011. The meeting itself isn't that interesting because it took place without the Chinese government's knowledge, no deal was done and no weapons were supplied. The leaking to the documents is very interesting though. On one level it was designed to make it difficult for the TNC to sign deals with Chinese rather then British oil companies by presenting China as an ally of Qaddafi in the Libyan public consciousness. On another level it was designed to put pressure on the United States to continue the NATO mission in support of the rebellion by raising the threat that Libya's oil will go to China should that rebellion fail.
At the start of the mission against Libya support amongst NATO members other then Britain, France and Canada was very low. As the mission has dragged on and it's true objective has become clear that support has all but disappeared making it unlikely that the NATO mandate will continue beyond September 27th. However as always the key player is the United States because if it is prepared to continue military action against Libya without a NATO mandate then very little will change so the other NATO members may well put aside their objections and continue the mandate in the interests of harmony within the alliance.
The leak of the China meeting also adds a new dimension to last weeks Nevada shooting in the US because the shooter used a Chinese AK-47 which has been banned from import into the US since about 1994. This led to a dialogue between the US and China over the issue of importing weapons despite arms embargoes. The result was that China dropped it's objections allowing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to officially recognise the TNC and today (13/9/11) China itself has also recognised the TNC. This seems to put China back in pole position in the race for Libya's oil because the Chinese approach to trade deals is all about business rather then honouring war time allegiances so they're likely to offer the highest price.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 4, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 3, Day 1." on 6/9/11.
Militarily very little has happened in Libya this past week. The rebels are still on the outskirts of both Sirte and Bani Walid but have been unable to advance any further.
Britain's Royal Air Force (RAF) though have been very busy in the skies above both Sirte and Bani Walid. Although I don't have access to the exact mission details there are multiple, credible reports that the reduction in bombing missions over the last couple of days has been caused by the RAF's stocks of missiles dropping to single figures forcing them to wait until extra supplies can be brought in from the United States and more can be delivered from the factory. That means that all the rebel's talk of negotiations and rumours of this Qaddafi son being spotted here and that Qaddafi son being killed there are just that. Misdirection to divert attention away from the fact that the rebels are still a long way away from being able to overthrow the Libyan government and are being forced to rely on Britain for help by bombing everything and everyone in Sirte and Bani Walid.
On the diplomatic front the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) used last Thursday's (1/9/11) Paris conference to unveil sketchy plans to hold democratic elections 20 months after the end of the conflict. The problem is that at the Paris conference there were also much more detailed plans circulating to have foreign oil companies back up to pre-conflict production levels 18 months after the end of the the conflict. So it looks like the Libyan people are going to get the sort of democracy that will allow them to decide everything except who gets their money.
On Sunday (4/9/11) the charity Human Rights Watch (HRW) uncovered documents revealing close links between Britain's MI6 and the Libyan departments for external and internal security. In Britain everyone has leapt onto the documents that show Britain was complicit in the extraordinary rendition and torture of Libya terrorist suspects including Abedel Hakim Bel Haj currently the rebel's military commander for the Tripoli region. The TNC have demanded a full investigation and apology and Britain is resisting those calls. So once again we have a huge spectacle designed to convince everyone that Britain's MI6 and the TNC aren't the same thing.
Amid all the drama everyone seems to have overlooked the fact that the documents also show a close and longstanding relationship between MI6 and the Libyan department of internal security that continued up to, during and after the February uprising. This is important because the atrocities that were committed in the east of the country were committed by the department of internal security and the evidence linking those atrocities to the Libyan government come from agents who later defected. So I think it's very important we know exactly when MI6 turned those agents otherwise it looks like MI6 were the ones ordering those atrocities.
Militarily very little has happened in Libya this past week. The rebels are still on the outskirts of both Sirte and Bani Walid but have been unable to advance any further.
Britain's Royal Air Force (RAF) though have been very busy in the skies above both Sirte and Bani Walid. Although I don't have access to the exact mission details there are multiple, credible reports that the reduction in bombing missions over the last couple of days has been caused by the RAF's stocks of missiles dropping to single figures forcing them to wait until extra supplies can be brought in from the United States and more can be delivered from the factory. That means that all the rebel's talk of negotiations and rumours of this Qaddafi son being spotted here and that Qaddafi son being killed there are just that. Misdirection to divert attention away from the fact that the rebels are still a long way away from being able to overthrow the Libyan government and are being forced to rely on Britain for help by bombing everything and everyone in Sirte and Bani Walid.
On the diplomatic front the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) used last Thursday's (1/9/11) Paris conference to unveil sketchy plans to hold democratic elections 20 months after the end of the conflict. The problem is that at the Paris conference there were also much more detailed plans circulating to have foreign oil companies back up to pre-conflict production levels 18 months after the end of the the conflict. So it looks like the Libyan people are going to get the sort of democracy that will allow them to decide everything except who gets their money.
On Sunday (4/9/11) the charity Human Rights Watch (HRW) uncovered documents revealing close links between Britain's MI6 and the Libyan departments for external and internal security. In Britain everyone has leapt onto the documents that show Britain was complicit in the extraordinary rendition and torture of Libya terrorist suspects including Abedel Hakim Bel Haj currently the rebel's military commander for the Tripoli region. The TNC have demanded a full investigation and apology and Britain is resisting those calls. So once again we have a huge spectacle designed to convince everyone that Britain's MI6 and the TNC aren't the same thing.
Amid all the drama everyone seems to have overlooked the fact that the documents also show a close and longstanding relationship between MI6 and the Libyan department of internal security that continued up to, during and after the February uprising. This is important because the atrocities that were committed in the east of the country were committed by the department of internal security and the evidence linking those atrocities to the Libyan government come from agents who later defected. So I think it's very important we know exactly when MI6 turned those agents otherwise it looks like MI6 were the ones ordering those atrocities.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 3, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 2, Day 1." on 30/8/11.
Although sporadic fighting continues around Zawiya, Gharain, Tripoli and Misrata the rebels now control the majority of the western coastal region of Libya including the main supply route from the Tunisian border. However last weeks assault on Sabha failed and Muammer Qaddafi has still not been deposed let alone captured so the rebels have focused their efforts on an advance of Sirte from both the west and the east. On the western front their advance has been slowed to a stop by Libyan government troops near the village of Abu Grin. On the eastern front the rebels have been stopped near the town of Bin Jawad. Western journalists are being kept well away from the front lines because it is widely believed that the rebels advance on both fronts is being spearheaded by British, French, New Zealander and possibly American special forces.
With the assault on Sabha failing and the south eastern area being mostly desert the current map of Libya looks something like this with the hatched area being the area under Libyan government control;
Today (30/8/11) the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) have given Libyan government forces until Saturday (3/9/11) to surrender or face a full military assault on Sirte. This is triumphant way of admitting that the rebels will not be in a position to attempt an assault on Sirte until Saturday at the earliest.
In the meantime NATO continue to provide the rebels with close air support. This included a British attack on Sirte last Thursday (25/8/11). Although the target itself - a bunker complex - was nothing special this attack was important because it was a long range mission launched from within the UK rather then from the NATO base in Italy. Therefore the main purpose of the attack was Britain warning the other NATO allies that even if the NATO mission ends as scheduled Britain will continue to attack Libya. Britain obviously has the capacity to do this but without NATO support it will be unable to maintain the naval blockade or extensive battlefield surveillance and will be limited to two or possibly three missions per day.
Meanwhile as western journalists flood Tripoli the true horror of the NATO siege and the rebel assault continues to emerge. This includes the desperate situation at the Bab al-Azizya hospital where over 100 patients were left to die from battlefield and other injuries due to a shortage of medical supplies and medical staff being forced to flee from the rebels advance. There have also been two confirmed instances of mass killings constituting a war crime. One committed by Libyan government forces and one committed by the rebels. On August 24th Human Rights Watch (HRW) uncovered a field hospital for Libyan government troops in the Bab al-Azizya area of Tripoli. It contained 29 bodies, some with their hands or legs tied, who'd been executed by rebel fighters. There have also been numerous, unconfirmed reports of gangs of rebel fighters entering Tripoli hospitals and killing black patients in their beds. On August 26th HRW discovered 35 bodies in and around the Internal Security building in the Gargur area of Tripoli who had been executed by Libyan government forces.
The most controversial incident of mass killing so far relates to the discovery of at least 45 bodies (possibly 200) in a burnt out warehouse in the Khalida Ferjan area of Tripoli on August 23rd. This was reported by the BBC on August 28th as a massacre by Khamis Qaddafi's 32nd armoured brigade and if you speak to anyone now no-one will tell you any different. However if you are able to read the statements made by witnesses at the time they talk of prisoners being guarded in the room by Libyan government soldiers with other Libyan government soldiers on the roof of the building. Then there were sounds of battle outside before unidentified gunmen opened the door, threw in several hand grenades and sprayed the room with gunfire before closing the door. They then opened the door for a second time, threw in several more hand grenades and again sprayed the room with gunfire. Now it seems odd to me that Libyan government forces would deliberately kill their own soldiers while they're under attack. So, to me, this incident sounds more like poorly trained and poorly disciplined rebel fighter messing up and then trying to cover it up rather then a deliberate massacre.
Although there are many more bodies to recover after a week of fighting that left an estimated 2,500 dead the main problem for the residents of Tripoli is a chronic shortage of food, water, medical supplies, fuel and electricity. You may have noticed that the rebels and NATO are being evasive and contradictory about what is causing these shortages. Apart from squandering Libya's wealth on a first class health care system, extensive social housing and free education for all Qaddafi also built an extensive network of overland rivers to bring fresh water from desert aquifers to the coastal cities. As part of the siege of Tripoli NATO closed the main supply route from Tripoli, cut the oil pipeline to Zawiya and bombed these overland rivers specifically to cut off the supply of fresh water. So what was a legitimate military tactic to protect civilians when Tripoli was under the command of the Libyan government has suddenly become a humanitarian crisis now the city is under rebel control.
In the UK much is being made of the TNC's refusal to extradite the Lockerbie bomber, Abdel Basset al-Meghari. The problem is that al-Meghari has been tried, convicted, jailed and freed from prison so there's really nothing Britain can do with him if he was extradited. Also is Libya, as with much of the rest of the world, no-one believes that al-Meghari was responsible for the Lockerbie bombing and he is viewed as either a victim of the Qaddafi regime or as a hero. So by requesting something they never wanted Britain was setting the TNC to refuse in order to allow them to give the impression that they're not just Britain's pets.
Although sporadic fighting continues around Zawiya, Gharain, Tripoli and Misrata the rebels now control the majority of the western coastal region of Libya including the main supply route from the Tunisian border. However last weeks assault on Sabha failed and Muammer Qaddafi has still not been deposed let alone captured so the rebels have focused their efforts on an advance of Sirte from both the west and the east. On the western front their advance has been slowed to a stop by Libyan government troops near the village of Abu Grin. On the eastern front the rebels have been stopped near the town of Bin Jawad. Western journalists are being kept well away from the front lines because it is widely believed that the rebels advance on both fronts is being spearheaded by British, French, New Zealander and possibly American special forces.
With the assault on Sabha failing and the south eastern area being mostly desert the current map of Libya looks something like this with the hatched area being the area under Libyan government control;
Today (30/8/11) the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) have given Libyan government forces until Saturday (3/9/11) to surrender or face a full military assault on Sirte. This is triumphant way of admitting that the rebels will not be in a position to attempt an assault on Sirte until Saturday at the earliest.
In the meantime NATO continue to provide the rebels with close air support. This included a British attack on Sirte last Thursday (25/8/11). Although the target itself - a bunker complex - was nothing special this attack was important because it was a long range mission launched from within the UK rather then from the NATO base in Italy. Therefore the main purpose of the attack was Britain warning the other NATO allies that even if the NATO mission ends as scheduled Britain will continue to attack Libya. Britain obviously has the capacity to do this but without NATO support it will be unable to maintain the naval blockade or extensive battlefield surveillance and will be limited to two or possibly three missions per day.
Meanwhile as western journalists flood Tripoli the true horror of the NATO siege and the rebel assault continues to emerge. This includes the desperate situation at the Bab al-Azizya hospital where over 100 patients were left to die from battlefield and other injuries due to a shortage of medical supplies and medical staff being forced to flee from the rebels advance. There have also been two confirmed instances of mass killings constituting a war crime. One committed by Libyan government forces and one committed by the rebels. On August 24th Human Rights Watch (HRW) uncovered a field hospital for Libyan government troops in the Bab al-Azizya area of Tripoli. It contained 29 bodies, some with their hands or legs tied, who'd been executed by rebel fighters. There have also been numerous, unconfirmed reports of gangs of rebel fighters entering Tripoli hospitals and killing black patients in their beds. On August 26th HRW discovered 35 bodies in and around the Internal Security building in the Gargur area of Tripoli who had been executed by Libyan government forces.
The most controversial incident of mass killing so far relates to the discovery of at least 45 bodies (possibly 200) in a burnt out warehouse in the Khalida Ferjan area of Tripoli on August 23rd. This was reported by the BBC on August 28th as a massacre by Khamis Qaddafi's 32nd armoured brigade and if you speak to anyone now no-one will tell you any different. However if you are able to read the statements made by witnesses at the time they talk of prisoners being guarded in the room by Libyan government soldiers with other Libyan government soldiers on the roof of the building. Then there were sounds of battle outside before unidentified gunmen opened the door, threw in several hand grenades and sprayed the room with gunfire before closing the door. They then opened the door for a second time, threw in several more hand grenades and again sprayed the room with gunfire. Now it seems odd to me that Libyan government forces would deliberately kill their own soldiers while they're under attack. So, to me, this incident sounds more like poorly trained and poorly disciplined rebel fighter messing up and then trying to cover it up rather then a deliberate massacre.
Although there are many more bodies to recover after a week of fighting that left an estimated 2,500 dead the main problem for the residents of Tripoli is a chronic shortage of food, water, medical supplies, fuel and electricity. You may have noticed that the rebels and NATO are being evasive and contradictory about what is causing these shortages. Apart from squandering Libya's wealth on a first class health care system, extensive social housing and free education for all Qaddafi also built an extensive network of overland rivers to bring fresh water from desert aquifers to the coastal cities. As part of the siege of Tripoli NATO closed the main supply route from Tripoli, cut the oil pipeline to Zawiya and bombed these overland rivers specifically to cut off the supply of fresh water. So what was a legitimate military tactic to protect civilians when Tripoli was under the command of the Libyan government has suddenly become a humanitarian crisis now the city is under rebel control.
In the UK much is being made of the TNC's refusal to extradite the Lockerbie bomber, Abdel Basset al-Meghari. The problem is that al-Meghari has been tried, convicted, jailed and freed from prison so there's really nothing Britain can do with him if he was extradited. Also is Libya, as with much of the rest of the world, no-one believes that al-Meghari was responsible for the Lockerbie bombing and he is viewed as either a victim of the Qaddafi regime or as a hero. So by requesting something they never wanted Britain was setting the TNC to refuse in order to allow them to give the impression that they're not just Britain's pets.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 2, Day 4.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 1, Day 2." on 24/8/11.
In western Libya fierce fighting has continued in Mistrata, Ziltan, Gharain, Zawiya and the area to the west of Zawiya. Hospitals and international aid agencies report that they are being overwhelmed by the number of casualties.
In Tripoli itself Libyan government forces still control the Qaddafi compound. The rebels breached the compounds outer walls yesterday (24/8/11) afternoon but have been unable to breach the inner walls. When and if that happens the rebels will still have to fight their way into the buildings in the compound and through the network of bunkers and tunnels underneath it. There are also reports of heaving fighting around the Rixos hotel as the rebels try and fight their way into the quarter of the city still controlled by the Libyan government.
Although his exact whereabouts are still unknown overnight (24/8/11 - 25/8/11) Muammer Qaddafi gave a speech on Libyan state radio to announce that he is no longer in Tripoli after withdrawing for tactical reasons. This is actually Muammer Qaddafi being modest because what he's done is actually a tactical master stroke that forces NATO to lift it's siege of the city that has been making life seriously unpleasant for the cities civilians.
With even Muammer Qaddafi confirming that he is no longer in Tripoli the British, French and New Zealand special forces who led the assault on Tripoli have led Libyan rebel units on another assault, this time of the southern city of Sabha. Although this is officially a mission to capture Muammer Qaddafi I think that the British military planners know full well that he is not in Sabha. However they're still leading the rebels on a pointless mission in order to keep them busy and the adrenaline pumping because if the rebels get the time to stop and think they'll realise that their grand plan has failed and they are now closer to defeat then victory.
In western Libya fierce fighting has continued in Mistrata, Ziltan, Gharain, Zawiya and the area to the west of Zawiya. Hospitals and international aid agencies report that they are being overwhelmed by the number of casualties.
In Tripoli itself Libyan government forces still control the Qaddafi compound. The rebels breached the compounds outer walls yesterday (24/8/11) afternoon but have been unable to breach the inner walls. When and if that happens the rebels will still have to fight their way into the buildings in the compound and through the network of bunkers and tunnels underneath it. There are also reports of heaving fighting around the Rixos hotel as the rebels try and fight their way into the quarter of the city still controlled by the Libyan government.
Although his exact whereabouts are still unknown overnight (24/8/11 - 25/8/11) Muammer Qaddafi gave a speech on Libyan state radio to announce that he is no longer in Tripoli after withdrawing for tactical reasons. This is actually Muammer Qaddafi being modest because what he's done is actually a tactical master stroke that forces NATO to lift it's siege of the city that has been making life seriously unpleasant for the cities civilians.
With even Muammer Qaddafi confirming that he is no longer in Tripoli the British, French and New Zealand special forces who led the assault on Tripoli have led Libyan rebel units on another assault, this time of the southern city of Sabha. Although this is officially a mission to capture Muammer Qaddafi I think that the British military planners know full well that he is not in Sabha. However they're still leading the rebels on a pointless mission in order to keep them busy and the adrenaline pumping because if the rebels get the time to stop and think they'll realise that their grand plan has failed and they are now closer to defeat then victory.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 2, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 1, Day 1." on 23/8/11.
After a day packed with the wild claims, dark fantasies and outright lies that have become the rebel's trademark today (23/8/11) the hysteria is starting to fade and the reality of the situation is beginning to dawn.
In the east of the country the rebels have still failed to re-take Brega over five weeks since Libyan government forces withdrew from the town. In Zawiya, Gharain and Ziltan in the west of the country the rebels are coming under sustained guerrilla style attacks by Libyan government forces. They are also being attacked from the west by the government forces who still hold the area between Zawiya and the Tunisian border. In Mistrata the rebels are coming under attack from rocket fire. According to some independent reports the death toll from the rebels four day advance from Zawiya to Tripoli is as high as 1300. This is equivalent to the entire death toll from the four week Operation Cast Lead that Israel launched against Gaza in the winter of 2008/9.
Within Tripoli itself Libyan government and rebel forces are currently engaged in fierce and confusing urban warfare. However the rebel's claim that they would storm the Qaddafi compound and capture Muammer Qaddafi by dawn today (23/8/11) has proved to be false. Although the location of Muammer Qaddafi is still unknown the compound is still most firmly under Libyan government control. Also the credibility of the rebel's claim that they had captured Saif al-Islam Qaddafi was damaged slightly when overnight he strolled into a hotel housing western journalist. He then took some of the journalists of a guided tour of the south western quarter of Tripoli. This not only demonstrated that he's not been captured it also showed that he still had freedom of movement across large sections of the city.
At best I would say that the rebels control about 60-65% of Tripoli. That figure is only expected to fall as the British, French and New Zealand special forces who spearheaded the advance are withdrawn to search for Muammer Qaddafi and escape the TV cameras. Since yesterday (22/8/11) evening there have been reports of rebel units fleeing Tripoli as they discover the fighting is much, much harder then Britain's MI6 had promised them.
On the diplomatic front:
NATO are currently holding a meeting. This was called yesterday (22/8/11) and Britain and France had been hoping to use to get NATO to end the operation as quickly as possible. Today (23/8/11) they're going to try and use it to get NATO to extend the mission for as long as possible. The International Criminal Court (ICC) are being forced to explain why they announced that the rebel's had captured Saif al-Islam Qaddafi when they clearly hadn't. Some people are even suggesting that maybe if the ICC didn't simply accept everything the rebels say as fact without any form of investigation we wouldn't be in this mess.
Also Britain and France are suggesting the possibility of tabling a resolution at the United Nations Security Council that would allow the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) to start spending the Libyan government's frozen assets. The idea is to force the TNC to spend all their money now so they'll be totally dependent on the western powers when and if the time comes to negotiate oil contracts. I doubt they'll even get as far as tabling the motion let alone getting it past a vote.
As for the oil price it's gone back up. This is not due to events Libya overnight. Instead it's because the oil traders have had the time to read the lengthy technical reports that estimate that it will be the length of the conflict plus 5-8 years before Libyan oil production gets back to the very low level it was at before the conflict began. It will take even longer if the Libyan government actually get desperate and start sabotaging the oil infrastructure.
Edited at 19:02 on 23/8/11:
As I was making a lot noise writing this post a British or possibly Qatari fast jet bombed the Qaddafi compound primarily to generate a lot of smoke and influence the NATO meeting. However they also managed to breach the outer wall of the compound allowing rebel fighters to enter. The compound itself is about 2.5 square miles (4km) and contains many buildings, tunnels and bunkers. Therefore it will take the best part of 12 hours to search so I'm going to the pub. Not in any rush you understand because there is a football match going on.
After a day packed with the wild claims, dark fantasies and outright lies that have become the rebel's trademark today (23/8/11) the hysteria is starting to fade and the reality of the situation is beginning to dawn.
In the east of the country the rebels have still failed to re-take Brega over five weeks since Libyan government forces withdrew from the town. In Zawiya, Gharain and Ziltan in the west of the country the rebels are coming under sustained guerrilla style attacks by Libyan government forces. They are also being attacked from the west by the government forces who still hold the area between Zawiya and the Tunisian border. In Mistrata the rebels are coming under attack from rocket fire. According to some independent reports the death toll from the rebels four day advance from Zawiya to Tripoli is as high as 1300. This is equivalent to the entire death toll from the four week Operation Cast Lead that Israel launched against Gaza in the winter of 2008/9.
Within Tripoli itself Libyan government and rebel forces are currently engaged in fierce and confusing urban warfare. However the rebel's claim that they would storm the Qaddafi compound and capture Muammer Qaddafi by dawn today (23/8/11) has proved to be false. Although the location of Muammer Qaddafi is still unknown the compound is still most firmly under Libyan government control. Also the credibility of the rebel's claim that they had captured Saif al-Islam Qaddafi was damaged slightly when overnight he strolled into a hotel housing western journalist. He then took some of the journalists of a guided tour of the south western quarter of Tripoli. This not only demonstrated that he's not been captured it also showed that he still had freedom of movement across large sections of the city.
At best I would say that the rebels control about 60-65% of Tripoli. That figure is only expected to fall as the British, French and New Zealand special forces who spearheaded the advance are withdrawn to search for Muammer Qaddafi and escape the TV cameras. Since yesterday (22/8/11) evening there have been reports of rebel units fleeing Tripoli as they discover the fighting is much, much harder then Britain's MI6 had promised them.
On the diplomatic front:
NATO are currently holding a meeting. This was called yesterday (22/8/11) and Britain and France had been hoping to use to get NATO to end the operation as quickly as possible. Today (23/8/11) they're going to try and use it to get NATO to extend the mission for as long as possible. The International Criminal Court (ICC) are being forced to explain why they announced that the rebel's had captured Saif al-Islam Qaddafi when they clearly hadn't. Some people are even suggesting that maybe if the ICC didn't simply accept everything the rebels say as fact without any form of investigation we wouldn't be in this mess.
Also Britain and France are suggesting the possibility of tabling a resolution at the United Nations Security Council that would allow the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) to start spending the Libyan government's frozen assets. The idea is to force the TNC to spend all their money now so they'll be totally dependent on the western powers when and if the time comes to negotiate oil contracts. I doubt they'll even get as far as tabling the motion let alone getting it past a vote.
As for the oil price it's gone back up. This is not due to events Libya overnight. Instead it's because the oil traders have had the time to read the lengthy technical reports that estimate that it will be the length of the conflict plus 5-8 years before Libyan oil production gets back to the very low level it was at before the conflict began. It will take even longer if the Libyan government actually get desperate and start sabotaging the oil infrastructure.
Edited at 19:02 on 23/8/11:
As I was making a lot noise writing this post a British or possibly Qatari fast jet bombed the Qaddafi compound primarily to generate a lot of smoke and influence the NATO meeting. However they also managed to breach the outer wall of the compound allowing rebel fighters to enter. The compound itself is about 2.5 square miles (4km) and contains many buildings, tunnels and bunkers. Therefore it will take the best part of 12 hours to search so I'm going to the pub. Not in any rush you understand because there is a football match going on.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 2, Day 2.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 5, Day 2." on 22/8/11.
Overnight (21/8/11 - 22/8/11) rebel forces entered Libya's capital Tripoli. However I would not go so far as to say that they are in control of the city. What appears to have happened is that the rebels took control of the main supply routes (roads) in Zawiya to the west, Gharain to the south and Ziltan to the east. They then pretty much ignored the populated parts of those towns/cities and instead made a mad dash up the roads into Tripoli in the hope of securing a propaganda victory that would cause the Libya government to collapse.
Although the rebels are still being met with guerrilla style resistance in Zawiya, Gharain, Ziltan and Tripoli itself their advance on the capital went almost unchallenged. This lack of resistance seems to have been the result of a speech Muammer Qaddafi gave on Libyan state television yesterday (21/8/11) evening. This appeared to contain a coded instruction that Qaddafi was no longer in Tripoli so it's defenders should allow the city to fall and withdraw to fall back positions in order to continue the fight. Obviously Qaddafi's current location is not known but it is widely believed that he is somewhere within the 70% of the country that the Libyan government still control between Misrata and Brega.
So the current map of Libya looks something like this;
However as you can see the rebels now control the areas of Libya that contain the majority of the oil reserves and pipelines. So Britain's current hope is that everyone will ignore the obvious and accept their claim of victory. The rebels will then play nice for the next five weeks to allow the NATO operation to expire at the end of September 2011. Once NATO are no longer involved Britain hopes that Libya will be forgotten about so the looting and massacres can begin.
Obviously the fact that the Libyan government is still functioning and is still in control of the majority of the country makes that much more difficult. So you can say what you like about Qaddafi but even as they're baying for his blood his every move is still all about trying to ensure the best possible future for the Libyan people.
Overnight (21/8/11 - 22/8/11) rebel forces entered Libya's capital Tripoli. However I would not go so far as to say that they are in control of the city. What appears to have happened is that the rebels took control of the main supply routes (roads) in Zawiya to the west, Gharain to the south and Ziltan to the east. They then pretty much ignored the populated parts of those towns/cities and instead made a mad dash up the roads into Tripoli in the hope of securing a propaganda victory that would cause the Libya government to collapse.
Although the rebels are still being met with guerrilla style resistance in Zawiya, Gharain, Ziltan and Tripoli itself their advance on the capital went almost unchallenged. This lack of resistance seems to have been the result of a speech Muammer Qaddafi gave on Libyan state television yesterday (21/8/11) evening. This appeared to contain a coded instruction that Qaddafi was no longer in Tripoli so it's defenders should allow the city to fall and withdraw to fall back positions in order to continue the fight. Obviously Qaddafi's current location is not known but it is widely believed that he is somewhere within the 70% of the country that the Libyan government still control between Misrata and Brega.
So the current map of Libya looks something like this;
However as you can see the rebels now control the areas of Libya that contain the majority of the oil reserves and pipelines. So Britain's current hope is that everyone will ignore the obvious and accept their claim of victory. The rebels will then play nice for the next five weeks to allow the NATO operation to expire at the end of September 2011. Once NATO are no longer involved Britain hopes that Libya will be forgotten about so the looting and massacres can begin.
Obviously the fact that the Libyan government is still functioning and is still in control of the majority of the country makes that much more difficult. So you can say what you like about Qaddafi but even as they're baying for his blood his every move is still all about trying to ensure the best possible future for the Libyan people.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 2, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 5, Day 1." on 21/8/11.
Britain hopes to soon release the findings of the public inquiry into the Iraq war. This is going to be a complete whitewash designed to boost Britain's international reputation by blaming the entire illegal war for oil on the progressive left Labour Party. Obviously Britain's Conservative right would never stand for this sort of thing which is why the Monarchy overthrew the Labour Party in the 2010 coup.
Clearly this propaganda message is going to drowned out by the current illegal war for oil that Britain's Conservative right are currently fighting in Libya. Also Britain knows full well that it does not have the support to get NATO to extend the operation against Libya beyond the current deadline of September 2011. So Britain knows is must win Libya now or lose it for ever.
The only problem is that Britain has known for a long time that the Libyan rebels have neither the popular support or technical ability to ever take control of the country. So Britain's military planners have given up on everything east of Misrata and west of Brega - some 80% of the country. Instead on or around August 8th (Month 6, Week 4, Day 4) Britain completely disregarded the no-fly zone it's meant to be enforcing and used transport aircraft to insert a small rebel force behind the Libyan government stop line south of Zawiya and Tripoli that runs roughly through the town of Gharain. With Libyan government forces distracted by having to fight against this attack behind the lines British attack aircraft including Apache attack helicopters opened up gaps in the stop line allowing the rebels to advance at speed from their positions in the foothills of the Nafusa mountains to Zawiya.
The rebels have been in Zawiya since August 14th (Month 5, Week 4, Day 1) but in the face of stiff resistance do not look anywhere near capable of securing the city. However because they've suddenly started fighting like a highly trained special forces unit they have managed to secure the oil refinery and cut the main supply route between Tripoli and Tunisia. There are also reports that the rebels have also taken the town of Gharain but that is impossible to verify because both Libyan government and rebel forces are currently in the town. It would appear though that the rebels have managed to cut the main supply route between Tripoli and Algeria. The civilians in the area have done what Libyan civilians always do when they see the rebels advancing and fled.
Although optimistic at best the news that Tripoli has been cut off has acted as the trigger for what's left of the resistance cells in Tripoli to rise up. As of yesterday (20/8/11) there are reports of gunfire in four districts in the capital including the Tajoura district. The Tajoura district of Tripoli is rather like the Brixton district of London or the Bronx district of New York - somewhere the government is never going to be popular and there's always some gunfire. So the current situation in Tripoli is comparable to London's recent riots and last time I checked they didn't cause the capital to fall.
Probably more out of necessity rather then reality Britain though is utterly convinced that this current operation will work and Qaddafi will soon fall. So much so that on August 10th (Month 5, Week 3, Day 4) they caused a leak on the Shell operated Gannet Alpha lateral oil drilling platform in the north sea. The purpose of this was to discuss primarily with the United States which oil company will get Libya's oil once Qaddafi goes. Britain's problem is that it is relying on a handful of people within the rebel's chaotic coalition to sign the oil rights over to a British company. It would be all too easy for these British assets to be removed either through assassination in the coming anarchy or through arrest for the multitude of crimes against humanity they've committed both during their time as rebels and their time as members of the Qaddafi government. The purpose of the Gannet Alpha leak was to find out what America knows and what, if anything, they've got planned. Of course I couldn't possibly comment further.
Meanwhile Britain's frantic claims that Qaddafi is about to fall has prompted the United Nations to raise the question of what will happen to Libya's civilians is that does happen. Based on their own data the UN see the need for mass evacuations and the setting up of Bosnia style safe havens to protect civilians from revenge attacks by the rebels against Qaddafi supporters or "the blacks" as the rebels refer to them.
Britain hopes to soon release the findings of the public inquiry into the Iraq war. This is going to be a complete whitewash designed to boost Britain's international reputation by blaming the entire illegal war for oil on the progressive left Labour Party. Obviously Britain's Conservative right would never stand for this sort of thing which is why the Monarchy overthrew the Labour Party in the 2010 coup.
Clearly this propaganda message is going to drowned out by the current illegal war for oil that Britain's Conservative right are currently fighting in Libya. Also Britain knows full well that it does not have the support to get NATO to extend the operation against Libya beyond the current deadline of September 2011. So Britain knows is must win Libya now or lose it for ever.
The only problem is that Britain has known for a long time that the Libyan rebels have neither the popular support or technical ability to ever take control of the country. So Britain's military planners have given up on everything east of Misrata and west of Brega - some 80% of the country. Instead on or around August 8th (Month 6, Week 4, Day 4) Britain completely disregarded the no-fly zone it's meant to be enforcing and used transport aircraft to insert a small rebel force behind the Libyan government stop line south of Zawiya and Tripoli that runs roughly through the town of Gharain. With Libyan government forces distracted by having to fight against this attack behind the lines British attack aircraft including Apache attack helicopters opened up gaps in the stop line allowing the rebels to advance at speed from their positions in the foothills of the Nafusa mountains to Zawiya.
The rebels have been in Zawiya since August 14th (Month 5, Week 4, Day 1) but in the face of stiff resistance do not look anywhere near capable of securing the city. However because they've suddenly started fighting like a highly trained special forces unit they have managed to secure the oil refinery and cut the main supply route between Tripoli and Tunisia. There are also reports that the rebels have also taken the town of Gharain but that is impossible to verify because both Libyan government and rebel forces are currently in the town. It would appear though that the rebels have managed to cut the main supply route between Tripoli and Algeria. The civilians in the area have done what Libyan civilians always do when they see the rebels advancing and fled.
Although optimistic at best the news that Tripoli has been cut off has acted as the trigger for what's left of the resistance cells in Tripoli to rise up. As of yesterday (20/8/11) there are reports of gunfire in four districts in the capital including the Tajoura district. The Tajoura district of Tripoli is rather like the Brixton district of London or the Bronx district of New York - somewhere the government is never going to be popular and there's always some gunfire. So the current situation in Tripoli is comparable to London's recent riots and last time I checked they didn't cause the capital to fall.
Probably more out of necessity rather then reality Britain though is utterly convinced that this current operation will work and Qaddafi will soon fall. So much so that on August 10th (Month 5, Week 3, Day 4) they caused a leak on the Shell operated Gannet Alpha lateral oil drilling platform in the north sea. The purpose of this was to discuss primarily with the United States which oil company will get Libya's oil once Qaddafi goes. Britain's problem is that it is relying on a handful of people within the rebel's chaotic coalition to sign the oil rights over to a British company. It would be all too easy for these British assets to be removed either through assassination in the coming anarchy or through arrest for the multitude of crimes against humanity they've committed both during their time as rebels and their time as members of the Qaddafi government. The purpose of the Gannet Alpha leak was to find out what America knows and what, if anything, they've got planned. Of course I couldn't possibly comment further.
Meanwhile Britain's frantic claims that Qaddafi is about to fall has prompted the United Nations to raise the question of what will happen to Libya's civilians is that does happen. Based on their own data the UN see the need for mass evacuations and the setting up of Bosnia style safe havens to protect civilians from revenge attacks by the rebels against Qaddafi supporters or "the blacks" as the rebels refer to them.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 7, Week 1, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 4, Day 1." on 14/8/11.
In Libya this week the unofficial Ramadan ceasefire has not held. In the east of the country the rebels have still failed to regain control of the town of Brega almost a month after Libyan government forces abandoned the town and the rebels promised to re-take it in record time.
The rebels have had slightly more success on the Misrata front line. As of Saturday (13/8/11) they seem to be in control of the town on Tawargha south of Misrata save for some small pockets of government resistance. Although of limited strategic importance Tawargha is where Libyan government forces had based the artillery and long range rockets they'd been using against rebel positions in and around Misrata. With extensive help from NATO close air support the rebels have been able to push those heavy weapons out of Tawargha meaning that they are no longer in range of most of Misrata.
The most dramatic developments though have come on the Nafusa mountains front line. Today (14/8/11) the rebels claim to be in control of the town of Zawiya some 18 miles (30km) outside of the capital Tripoli. This is almost incredible because it would have required the rebels to have advance some 125 miles (200km) from their positions in the foothills of the Nafusa mountains in little over four days - something that would have required the complete collapse of the Libyan government forces. So I think this is the result of a commando style lighting raid rather then a proper military advance. The idea being that a small but highly mobile raiding party smash their way into an area in order to grab a high profile, attention grabbing and morale boosting victory. They are then very quickly pushed out of the area but not before they've caused panic and gathered intelligence on how the area is being defended. So a bit like the London riots then only with heavier weapons.
Also the mystery of whether or not Muammer Qaddafi's youngest son, Khamis al-Qaddafi was killed in a NATO air strike near Ziltan last week has been solved. Put simply he wasn't. What did happen though was NATO aircraft attacked civilian positions in Majar near Ziltan killing at least 85 and injuring hundreds more. NATO claimed that Khamis al-Qaddafi's 32nd Armoured Brigade was in the area in an attempt to cover up the fact they'd attacked a civilian target. This ruse fell apart somewhat when Khamis al-Qaddafi was filmed visiting survivors of the attack in hospital. I hope you weren't expecting to see that on the western media.
In Libya this week the unofficial Ramadan ceasefire has not held. In the east of the country the rebels have still failed to regain control of the town of Brega almost a month after Libyan government forces abandoned the town and the rebels promised to re-take it in record time.
The rebels have had slightly more success on the Misrata front line. As of Saturday (13/8/11) they seem to be in control of the town on Tawargha south of Misrata save for some small pockets of government resistance. Although of limited strategic importance Tawargha is where Libyan government forces had based the artillery and long range rockets they'd been using against rebel positions in and around Misrata. With extensive help from NATO close air support the rebels have been able to push those heavy weapons out of Tawargha meaning that they are no longer in range of most of Misrata.
The most dramatic developments though have come on the Nafusa mountains front line. Today (14/8/11) the rebels claim to be in control of the town of Zawiya some 18 miles (30km) outside of the capital Tripoli. This is almost incredible because it would have required the rebels to have advance some 125 miles (200km) from their positions in the foothills of the Nafusa mountains in little over four days - something that would have required the complete collapse of the Libyan government forces. So I think this is the result of a commando style lighting raid rather then a proper military advance. The idea being that a small but highly mobile raiding party smash their way into an area in order to grab a high profile, attention grabbing and morale boosting victory. They are then very quickly pushed out of the area but not before they've caused panic and gathered intelligence on how the area is being defended. So a bit like the London riots then only with heavier weapons.
Also the mystery of whether or not Muammer Qaddafi's youngest son, Khamis al-Qaddafi was killed in a NATO air strike near Ziltan last week has been solved. Put simply he wasn't. What did happen though was NATO aircraft attacked civilian positions in Majar near Ziltan killing at least 85 and injuring hundreds more. NATO claimed that Khamis al-Qaddafi's 32nd Armoured Brigade was in the area in an attempt to cover up the fact they'd attacked a civilian target. This ruse fell apart somewhat when Khamis al-Qaddafi was filmed visiting survivors of the attack in hospital. I hope you weren't expecting to see that on the western media.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 4, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 3, Day 1." on 7/8/11.
It is currently Ramadan. This Islamic festival requires Muslims to pray 7 times a day for 30 days and deprive themselves of food during daylight hours during the same period in order to allow them to reflect on the year that has passed and prepare for the year to come.
In Libya this means that people aren't eating between roughly 04:00 and 23:00 local. Add to that daytime temperatures of between 40c and 50c and it's no way to fight a war. So Libyan government forces and the rebels have pretty much stopped fighting each other as they observe an unofficial and largely unspoken ceasefire.
NATO however are not observing that ceasefire and continue to bomb ground targets. On Friday (5/8/11) NATO claimed that one of these bomb attacks killed Muammer Qaddafi's eldest son Khamis al-Qaddafi who is also the military commander of the Libyan army's 32nd Armoured Brigade. This is actually the second time that NATO have tried to encourage the rebels to fight by claiming to have killed Khamis al-Qaddafi so you'll excuse me if I don't exactly rush to believe them.
It is currently Ramadan. This Islamic festival requires Muslims to pray 7 times a day for 30 days and deprive themselves of food during daylight hours during the same period in order to allow them to reflect on the year that has passed and prepare for the year to come.
In Libya this means that people aren't eating between roughly 04:00 and 23:00 local. Add to that daytime temperatures of between 40c and 50c and it's no way to fight a war. So Libyan government forces and the rebels have pretty much stopped fighting each other as they observe an unofficial and largely unspoken ceasefire.
NATO however are not observing that ceasefire and continue to bomb ground targets. On Friday (5/8/11) NATO claimed that one of these bomb attacks killed Muammer Qaddafi's eldest son Khamis al-Qaddafi who is also the military commander of the Libyan army's 32nd Armoured Brigade. This is actually the second time that NATO have tried to encourage the rebels to fight by claiming to have killed Khamis al-Qaddafi so you'll excuse me if I don't exactly rush to believe them.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 3, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 2, Day 1." on 31/7/11.
This past week in Libya fighting on the ground has all but stopped. The rebels appear to have secured Brega and there have been some isolated clashes between rebel and government forces in the villages around Nalut on the Tunisian border in the foot hills of the Nafusa mountains. NATO bombing continues of course.
On Sunday (24/7/11) British aircraft attacked the Qaddafi compound in Tripoli for the second night in a row. The military justification given for these attacks is that they were an attempt to destroy the defensive walls around the compound in an effort to make it easier for rebels to storm it. The problem is that none of the residents of Tripoli want to storm the compound and the closest rebel units are stuck some 125 miles (200km) outside of Tripoli so the walls will be rebuilt long before they arrive.
On Monday (25/7/11) Britain joined France in suggesting that Qaddafi could remain in Libya if he agreed to give up power although I think that was more aimed at me then Qaddafi. By Wednesday (27/7/11) Britain had clearly changed it's mind and expelled the remaining Libyan government diplomats from Britain. Coming just five days after the terror attacks in Norway Britain had been hoping to present this to the world as a necessary step to protect Britain from Libyan terrorism. Due to the Norway plan going a bit wrong Britain instead presented the move as showing their continuing commitment to the rebels and a necessary step to allow the rebels Transitional National Council (TNC) to access frozen Libyan government assets. The reality though is that since mid-February there have been daily protests by the rebels and Qaddafi supporters outside the Libyan Embassy in London. Britain is now starting to run out of the money needed to police these demonstrations so closed the Embassy in the hope that the protests would stop. That means that rather then showing it's support for the rebels and it's commitment to overthrowing Qaddafi the decision to expel the diplomats shows that Britain is running out of both the will and the resources needed to continue the conflict.
On Thursday (28/7/11) the military commander of rebel forces, Abdel Fatah Younis was killed. By the rebels themselves. Although accounts of exactly what happened to him vary it seems a faction of the rebels accused Younis of being a Qaddafi spy and took him prisoner. He was then either shot and killed on his way to interrogation or was shot and killed during interrogation which doesn't say much about the way the rebels treat their prisoners. It also highlights perfectly the problems that Libya will face if and when Qaddafi is overthrown. Far from being an organised single group the rebels are in fact a ramshackle coalition of competing tribal, religious, social and political factions unified only by their desire to overthrow Qaddafi. Should Qaddafi go then that unifying factor will be gone and the rebel coalition will most likely collapse into a variety of warring factions.
In fact the killing of Younis highlights this problem so perfectly I think Britain might have had a hand in his death in order to promote discussion within the NATO-led coalition about what's going to happen in a post-Qaddafi Libya. Of course this is not being done out of any concern for the Libyan people you understand. It's just that if Britain were to back the wrong faction then they won't get any of Libya's oil which will leave them both looking stupid and seriously out of pocket for the entire operation.
From the Libyan government's perspective the killing of Younis only serves to prove that under the rebels Libya won't be the land of milk and honey that some people still think it will be. So the Libyan state broadcaster has been extensively covering the incident. On Friday (29/7/11) this prompted Britain to try and take the Libyan state broadcaster off the air by bombing several satellite relay stations. This effort failed and the Libyan state broadcaster is still available both inside Libya and internationally.
This past week in Libya fighting on the ground has all but stopped. The rebels appear to have secured Brega and there have been some isolated clashes between rebel and government forces in the villages around Nalut on the Tunisian border in the foot hills of the Nafusa mountains. NATO bombing continues of course.
On Sunday (24/7/11) British aircraft attacked the Qaddafi compound in Tripoli for the second night in a row. The military justification given for these attacks is that they were an attempt to destroy the defensive walls around the compound in an effort to make it easier for rebels to storm it. The problem is that none of the residents of Tripoli want to storm the compound and the closest rebel units are stuck some 125 miles (200km) outside of Tripoli so the walls will be rebuilt long before they arrive.
On Monday (25/7/11) Britain joined France in suggesting that Qaddafi could remain in Libya if he agreed to give up power although I think that was more aimed at me then Qaddafi. By Wednesday (27/7/11) Britain had clearly changed it's mind and expelled the remaining Libyan government diplomats from Britain. Coming just five days after the terror attacks in Norway Britain had been hoping to present this to the world as a necessary step to protect Britain from Libyan terrorism. Due to the Norway plan going a bit wrong Britain instead presented the move as showing their continuing commitment to the rebels and a necessary step to allow the rebels Transitional National Council (TNC) to access frozen Libyan government assets. The reality though is that since mid-February there have been daily protests by the rebels and Qaddafi supporters outside the Libyan Embassy in London. Britain is now starting to run out of the money needed to police these demonstrations so closed the Embassy in the hope that the protests would stop. That means that rather then showing it's support for the rebels and it's commitment to overthrowing Qaddafi the decision to expel the diplomats shows that Britain is running out of both the will and the resources needed to continue the conflict.
On Thursday (28/7/11) the military commander of rebel forces, Abdel Fatah Younis was killed. By the rebels themselves. Although accounts of exactly what happened to him vary it seems a faction of the rebels accused Younis of being a Qaddafi spy and took him prisoner. He was then either shot and killed on his way to interrogation or was shot and killed during interrogation which doesn't say much about the way the rebels treat their prisoners. It also highlights perfectly the problems that Libya will face if and when Qaddafi is overthrown. Far from being an organised single group the rebels are in fact a ramshackle coalition of competing tribal, religious, social and political factions unified only by their desire to overthrow Qaddafi. Should Qaddafi go then that unifying factor will be gone and the rebel coalition will most likely collapse into a variety of warring factions.
In fact the killing of Younis highlights this problem so perfectly I think Britain might have had a hand in his death in order to promote discussion within the NATO-led coalition about what's going to happen in a post-Qaddafi Libya. Of course this is not being done out of any concern for the Libyan people you understand. It's just that if Britain were to back the wrong faction then they won't get any of Libya's oil which will leave them both looking stupid and seriously out of pocket for the entire operation.
From the Libyan government's perspective the killing of Younis only serves to prove that under the rebels Libya won't be the land of milk and honey that some people still think it will be. So the Libyan state broadcaster has been extensively covering the incident. On Friday (29/7/11) this prompted Britain to try and take the Libyan state broadcaster off the air by bombing several satellite relay stations. This effort failed and the Libyan state broadcaster is still available both inside Libya and internationally.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 2, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 1, Day 1." on 24/7/11.
In the two days since my previous post on the subject not much has happened in Libya.
On Saturday (23/7/11) NATO (read British) aircraft carried out another intense night time air raid on Qaddafi's compound in Tripoli. As it is extremely unlikely that Qaddafi was in the compound at the time and the compound has been bombed close to a hundred times since the start of the air campaign this latest attack was of limited military value. Instead it was a symbolic attack designed to send two messages. Firstly it was designed to send the message to Qaddafi and the Libyan people that the international coalition is still holding together and they're not going away anytime soon.
Secondly it was designed to send a message to Norway and the international community about Friday's (22/7/11) twin terrorist attacks. In the original plan the blond, blue eyed gunman, Ander Breivik, was supposed to have used his disguise as a policeman to flee from the scene while everyone was too busy looking for an Arab/Muslim terrorist. This would have led to two to three days of confusion and wild speculation while the Norwegian authorities tried to identify the attacker under extreme pressure. By throwing Qaddafi's name into the confusion Britain was hoping to convince everyone that he was behind the attacks forcing the Norwegian government to reverse it's decision to withdraw from the NATO operation at the end of August.
Elsewhere in Libya it still appears that the rebels have been unable to re-take an undefended Brega. The problem they're facing is that as part of their defence of the town government extensively rigged the town with booby traps and other improvised explosive devices (IED's). So the situation the rebels have been facing in Brega is remarkably similar to the situation the Norwegian police faced when they arrived on Utoya island only with fewer corpses.
In the two days since my previous post on the subject not much has happened in Libya.
On Saturday (23/7/11) NATO (read British) aircraft carried out another intense night time air raid on Qaddafi's compound in Tripoli. As it is extremely unlikely that Qaddafi was in the compound at the time and the compound has been bombed close to a hundred times since the start of the air campaign this latest attack was of limited military value. Instead it was a symbolic attack designed to send two messages. Firstly it was designed to send the message to Qaddafi and the Libyan people that the international coalition is still holding together and they're not going away anytime soon.
Secondly it was designed to send a message to Norway and the international community about Friday's (22/7/11) twin terrorist attacks. In the original plan the blond, blue eyed gunman, Ander Breivik, was supposed to have used his disguise as a policeman to flee from the scene while everyone was too busy looking for an Arab/Muslim terrorist. This would have led to two to three days of confusion and wild speculation while the Norwegian authorities tried to identify the attacker under extreme pressure. By throwing Qaddafi's name into the confusion Britain was hoping to convince everyone that he was behind the attacks forcing the Norwegian government to reverse it's decision to withdraw from the NATO operation at the end of August.
Elsewhere in Libya it still appears that the rebels have been unable to re-take an undefended Brega. The problem they're facing is that as part of their defence of the town government extensively rigged the town with booby traps and other improvised explosive devices (IED's). So the situation the rebels have been facing in Brega is remarkably similar to the situation the Norwegian police faced when they arrived on Utoya island only with fewer corpses.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 2, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 4, Week 5, Day 1." on 22/7/11.
I'll keep this brief because there are a lot of other things going on today (22/7/11). Besides Month 5 begins on Sunday (24/7/11).
This week in Libya the Nafusa mountains front line has remained static with the rebels unable to advance on Libyan government positions. On the Misrata front line the rebels have maintained their narrow breakout corridor and are extending it towards Zilten at a rate of around 1.2 miles (2km) per day. However they are sustaining heavy casualties of around 20 per day and the casualty rate is expected to rise and the rate of advance is expected to slow as the rebels approach Zilten and will have to go house to house to clear the town. On the Ajdabiya/Brega front line the rebels spent the early part of the week claiming that they were about to re-take Brega in record time. What actually happened is that on Sunday (17/7/11) Libyan government forces withdrew from Brega to Ras Lanuf. As of Thursday (21/7/11) the rebels have so far been unable to secure the town.
Even in light of these small gains by the rebels their Transitional National Council (TNC) is still only able to exert control over around 12% of the country. This is very similar to the situation in Somalia and why most nations outside of the 25 member International Contact Group have disregarded last Friday's (15/7/11) declaration by the contact group that the TNC are the legitimate government of Libya.
I'll keep this brief because there are a lot of other things going on today (22/7/11). Besides Month 5 begins on Sunday (24/7/11).
This week in Libya the Nafusa mountains front line has remained static with the rebels unable to advance on Libyan government positions. On the Misrata front line the rebels have maintained their narrow breakout corridor and are extending it towards Zilten at a rate of around 1.2 miles (2km) per day. However they are sustaining heavy casualties of around 20 per day and the casualty rate is expected to rise and the rate of advance is expected to slow as the rebels approach Zilten and will have to go house to house to clear the town. On the Ajdabiya/Brega front line the rebels spent the early part of the week claiming that they were about to re-take Brega in record time. What actually happened is that on Sunday (17/7/11) Libyan government forces withdrew from Brega to Ras Lanuf. As of Thursday (21/7/11) the rebels have so far been unable to secure the town.
Even in light of these small gains by the rebels their Transitional National Council (TNC) is still only able to exert control over around 12% of the country. This is very similar to the situation in Somalia and why most nations outside of the 25 member International Contact Group have disregarded last Friday's (15/7/11) declaration by the contact group that the TNC are the legitimate government of Libya.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 6, Week 1, Day 1.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 4, Week 4, Day 1." on 15/7/11.
It has been another quiet week in Libya. The rebels have managed to hold on to the narrow 12 mile (20km) corridor they opened up on the Misrata front line last week. However the rebels were unable to hold on to the town of Gharain on the Nafusa mountains front line and were pushed back the full 6 miles (10km) they'd gained by a Libyan government counter offensive on Wednesday (13/7/11). On the Ajdabiya/Brega front line the rebels have been talking about mounting a big offensive to take Brega for a couple of days now but the line remains static while we wait to see if that attack will materialise.
On the diplomatic front on Wednesday the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg all recognised the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) as the only legitimate representative of the Libyan people. By contrast over the course of this week the Libyan government applied for permission to send a delegation to Israel and were given it. Although this meeting has yet to take place and when it does it will be more about opening a link rather then reaching a conclusion it highlights that rather then being behind the Libyan rebellion Israel is actually one of the few nations prepared to continue relatively normal diplomatic relations with Qaddafi. This is what prompted the French President, Nicholas Sarkozy to call for the NATO operation against Libya to end on Tuesday (12/7/11) because he thinks that France will require Israeli approval to replace Britain as Americas link to Europe.
With the actual fighting in something of a quiet period I should take the opportunity to talk more about the issue of Libya's frozen assets which sort of got overlooked in the early part of the conflict. Apart from authorising the NATO operation when the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed resolution 1973(2011) it also ordered that all Libyan assets be seized by the government in the country in which they're held and Britain, France and Italy have all suggested that these seized assets are given to the rebels to help fund their military campaign.
Apart from raising the worrying prospect of a foreign government taking money from one private company and giving it to another private company this creates a big problem because despite what the western propaganda would have you believe Qaddafi hasn't really plundered Libya's wealth to fund lavish lifestyles for himself and his family. Instead he placed most of it into something called a Sovereign Wealth Fund. One thing that Libya's Sovereign Wealth Fund does is fund the Libyan Investment Portfolio (LAP) which since 2006 has invested heavily in mobile telecommunications infrastructure across Africa. Starting with an initial investment of US$5billion LAP's GreeN mobile phone network now either operates outright or is in partnership with local operators in; Zambia (Zamtel), Uganda (UTL), Rwanda (Rwandtel), Niger (Sahelcom), Cote D'Ivorie (Oricel), Sierra Leone (Ambitel), Togo (GreeN) and South Sudan (Gemtel). Before the war it was planning to expand into Burundi, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Equatorial Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo but already has over 4 million customers across the continent.
This is important because the spread of mobile phone use across Africa has driven the continents biggest development revolution over the past decade with some economists estimating that for every 1 in 10 Africans using a mobile phone GDP goes up by as much as 1.2%. This is because for as long as anyone can remember the big development challenge in Africa is the lack of infrastructure meaning that there aren't really any roads, no electricity grid, no postal, service, no TV, no newspapers and no banks. As a result rather then having sort of national populations many African countries have small, isolated communities who aren't really that aware of each other existence. That meant that farmers and fishermen weren't able to find out where to go to sell their produce for the best price, corrupt governments and foreign corporations were able to do whatever they liked with impunity and good governments weren't able to keep their people informed about things like floods, droughts and health threats like HIV/AIDS.
The spread of mobile phones and especially the mobile Internet has changed all that with all these people suddenly able to talk to each other and the world. As a result Africans have been better able to hold their governments to account and African businesses have been able to start operating on the global stage selling their goods on the global market and researching foreign companies that have been trying to rip them off. It has also created a boom industry in software development with African entrepreneurs now leading the world in things like eWallet technology and technology that allows payments to be made by text message to name but a few.
Unfortunately the decision to freeze Libyan assets has also frozen the assets of many of the mobile phone networks that are making all this possible. So apart from the damage that it's doing to Libya itself the longer the war against Libya goes on for the more damage it will do to the continent as a whole while people in the developed world are once again being asked to donate money to save people in east Africa from starvation.
It has been another quiet week in Libya. The rebels have managed to hold on to the narrow 12 mile (20km) corridor they opened up on the Misrata front line last week. However the rebels were unable to hold on to the town of Gharain on the Nafusa mountains front line and were pushed back the full 6 miles (10km) they'd gained by a Libyan government counter offensive on Wednesday (13/7/11). On the Ajdabiya/Brega front line the rebels have been talking about mounting a big offensive to take Brega for a couple of days now but the line remains static while we wait to see if that attack will materialise.
On the diplomatic front on Wednesday the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg all recognised the rebel's Transitional National Council (TNC) as the only legitimate representative of the Libyan people. By contrast over the course of this week the Libyan government applied for permission to send a delegation to Israel and were given it. Although this meeting has yet to take place and when it does it will be more about opening a link rather then reaching a conclusion it highlights that rather then being behind the Libyan rebellion Israel is actually one of the few nations prepared to continue relatively normal diplomatic relations with Qaddafi. This is what prompted the French President, Nicholas Sarkozy to call for the NATO operation against Libya to end on Tuesday (12/7/11) because he thinks that France will require Israeli approval to replace Britain as Americas link to Europe.
With the actual fighting in something of a quiet period I should take the opportunity to talk more about the issue of Libya's frozen assets which sort of got overlooked in the early part of the conflict. Apart from authorising the NATO operation when the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed resolution 1973(2011) it also ordered that all Libyan assets be seized by the government in the country in which they're held and Britain, France and Italy have all suggested that these seized assets are given to the rebels to help fund their military campaign.
Apart from raising the worrying prospect of a foreign government taking money from one private company and giving it to another private company this creates a big problem because despite what the western propaganda would have you believe Qaddafi hasn't really plundered Libya's wealth to fund lavish lifestyles for himself and his family. Instead he placed most of it into something called a Sovereign Wealth Fund. One thing that Libya's Sovereign Wealth Fund does is fund the Libyan Investment Portfolio (LAP) which since 2006 has invested heavily in mobile telecommunications infrastructure across Africa. Starting with an initial investment of US$5billion LAP's GreeN mobile phone network now either operates outright or is in partnership with local operators in; Zambia (Zamtel), Uganda (UTL), Rwanda (Rwandtel), Niger (Sahelcom), Cote D'Ivorie (Oricel), Sierra Leone (Ambitel), Togo (GreeN) and South Sudan (Gemtel). Before the war it was planning to expand into Burundi, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Equatorial Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo but already has over 4 million customers across the continent.
This is important because the spread of mobile phone use across Africa has driven the continents biggest development revolution over the past decade with some economists estimating that for every 1 in 10 Africans using a mobile phone GDP goes up by as much as 1.2%. This is because for as long as anyone can remember the big development challenge in Africa is the lack of infrastructure meaning that there aren't really any roads, no electricity grid, no postal, service, no TV, no newspapers and no banks. As a result rather then having sort of national populations many African countries have small, isolated communities who aren't really that aware of each other existence. That meant that farmers and fishermen weren't able to find out where to go to sell their produce for the best price, corrupt governments and foreign corporations were able to do whatever they liked with impunity and good governments weren't able to keep their people informed about things like floods, droughts and health threats like HIV/AIDS.
The spread of mobile phones and especially the mobile Internet has changed all that with all these people suddenly able to talk to each other and the world. As a result Africans have been better able to hold their governments to account and African businesses have been able to start operating on the global stage selling their goods on the global market and researching foreign companies that have been trying to rip them off. It has also created a boom industry in software development with African entrepreneurs now leading the world in things like eWallet technology and technology that allows payments to be made by text message to name but a few.
Unfortunately the decision to freeze Libyan assets has also frozen the assets of many of the mobile phone networks that are making all this possible. So apart from the damage that it's doing to Libya itself the longer the war against Libya goes on for the more damage it will do to the continent as a whole while people in the developed world are once again being asked to donate money to save people in east Africa from starvation.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 4, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 4, Week 3, Day 1." on 8/7/11.
In Libya the front lines between Libyan government and rebel forces are still in place in Misrata, Brega/Ajdabiya and in the foothills of the Nafusa mountains. However in the early part of the week the conflict reached such a stalemate that neither side could even be bothered to exchange sniper fire across those front lines.
The government forces reason for this is quite simple. They know that if they attempt to attack the rebel positions NATO aircraft will come along and bomb them in order to protect the rebel fighters. So they are perfectly happy to sit on the defensive line they've established and wait for the rebels to attack them. The reason why the rebels have yet to do this is more complicated. They claim that they are avoiding attacking in order to avoid civilian casualties and are instead waiting for the long promised uprising in Tripoli to begin. In reality it is because they know that they can't break through the government line and the rebels backers have somewhat lost interest now that the bulk of Libya's oil reserves, in the south east of the country, are under rebel control and slowly coming to market.
The fact that Muammer Qaddafi is still able to bring hundreds of thousands of Libyans onto the streets in support coupled with the fact that the foreign controlled resistance network in Tripoli now seems to have been broken up to the point where they're reduced to actions, such as setting fire to billboards, that British anarchists would consider beneath them means that the rebels morale has dropped dramatically in recent weeks. So on Tuesday (5/7/11) the rebels leadership launched a big operation to boost morale and re-energise their support. One element of this was to call hundreds of thousands of rebel supporters to the streets in Benghazi and Misrata on Wednesday (6/7/11) to show to the world that the rebels have not yet been defeated. The other element was to launch two offensives on the Misrata and Nafusa front lines.
In Misrata a small section of the rebels offensive line was able to break out and establish a narrow, 12 mile (20km) long corridor towards government lines. This took two days between Tuesday (5/7/11) and Thursday (7/7/11) and around 30 rebels and an unknown number of government forces were killed in the process. Despite the rebels claims of success they remain within the limits of the city and it remains to be seen if they can maintain this corridor with their fighters isolated very far ahead of the main rebel line.
In the Nafusa mountains the rebels pushed out almost parallel with the government line to take the town of Gualish around 6 miles (10km) to the north-east. This effort took three days between Tuesday (5/7/11) and Friday (8/7/11) and although I don't have actual figures the rebels are said to have sustained heavy casualties. Although the rebels and the western media are claiming this to be a major victory all the rebels have actually achieved is to move closer to the strategically important town of Gharain which contains the main highway to Tripoli but remains about 28 miles (45km) ahead of them. Taking Gharain will take an even greater effort from the rebels because it is part of the government's stop line.
On the diplomatic front Britain and Russia held talks designed to help end the conflict but they broke down, apparently due to Britain's refusal to stop arming the rebels. At this point I have to say that I think Britain is hoping that the war in Libya will get so boring that everyone will stop paying attention and therefore not notice that it never actually ends.
In Libya the front lines between Libyan government and rebel forces are still in place in Misrata, Brega/Ajdabiya and in the foothills of the Nafusa mountains. However in the early part of the week the conflict reached such a stalemate that neither side could even be bothered to exchange sniper fire across those front lines.
The government forces reason for this is quite simple. They know that if they attempt to attack the rebel positions NATO aircraft will come along and bomb them in order to protect the rebel fighters. So they are perfectly happy to sit on the defensive line they've established and wait for the rebels to attack them. The reason why the rebels have yet to do this is more complicated. They claim that they are avoiding attacking in order to avoid civilian casualties and are instead waiting for the long promised uprising in Tripoli to begin. In reality it is because they know that they can't break through the government line and the rebels backers have somewhat lost interest now that the bulk of Libya's oil reserves, in the south east of the country, are under rebel control and slowly coming to market.
The fact that Muammer Qaddafi is still able to bring hundreds of thousands of Libyans onto the streets in support coupled with the fact that the foreign controlled resistance network in Tripoli now seems to have been broken up to the point where they're reduced to actions, such as setting fire to billboards, that British anarchists would consider beneath them means that the rebels morale has dropped dramatically in recent weeks. So on Tuesday (5/7/11) the rebels leadership launched a big operation to boost morale and re-energise their support. One element of this was to call hundreds of thousands of rebel supporters to the streets in Benghazi and Misrata on Wednesday (6/7/11) to show to the world that the rebels have not yet been defeated. The other element was to launch two offensives on the Misrata and Nafusa front lines.
In Misrata a small section of the rebels offensive line was able to break out and establish a narrow, 12 mile (20km) long corridor towards government lines. This took two days between Tuesday (5/7/11) and Thursday (7/7/11) and around 30 rebels and an unknown number of government forces were killed in the process. Despite the rebels claims of success they remain within the limits of the city and it remains to be seen if they can maintain this corridor with their fighters isolated very far ahead of the main rebel line.
In the Nafusa mountains the rebels pushed out almost parallel with the government line to take the town of Gualish around 6 miles (10km) to the north-east. This effort took three days between Tuesday (5/7/11) and Friday (8/7/11) and although I don't have actual figures the rebels are said to have sustained heavy casualties. Although the rebels and the western media are claiming this to be a major victory all the rebels have actually achieved is to move closer to the strategically important town of Gharain which contains the main highway to Tripoli but remains about 28 miles (45km) ahead of them. Taking Gharain will take an even greater effort from the rebels because it is part of the government's stop line.
On the diplomatic front Britain and Russia held talks designed to help end the conflict but they broke down, apparently due to Britain's refusal to stop arming the rebels. At this point I have to say that I think Britain is hoping that the war in Libya will get so boring that everyone will stop paying attention and therefore not notice that it never actually ends.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 3, Day 3.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 4, Week 2, Day 1." on 1/7/11.
I should start with an explanation. During all the confusion of the Royal wedding/Mayday/bin Laden I gained a bit of time. Then during the confusion of the G8 Summit I gained a bit more time and in the process forced myself to work three Saturday's when I really didn't have to. However today (30/7/11) is the first day of the second week of the fourth month of the war against Libya or day 104 if you prefer.
Whatever you call it this week has been dominated by the Chinese Prime Minister's visit to Europe. As already mentioned at some length on Monday (27/6/11) the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Muammer Qaddafi, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi and Abdullah Senussi. This is despite both Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch releasing reports stating that there is no evidence whatsoever that Libyan government forces used rape as a weapon of war. The ICC's Chief Prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo has yet to retract that claim.
In terms of fighting it has been a relatively quiet week. The Ajdabiya/Brega front line and the Misrata front line are both still active and some NATO bombing continues. The real developments though have taken place on the Nafusa mountains front line. On Wednesday (29/6/11) a French newspaper, Le Figaro ran a government sponsored expose that revealed that France had parachuted supplies of assault rifles, sub-machine guns, ant-tank rockets and ammunition to the rebels in that area in early June. It was those weapons that enabled rebel fighters to mount their two week advance that ended when they ran into a Libyan government stop line about 30 miles (48km) outside Tripoli on 16/6/11. The rebels failure to break through this line meant that the rebels had to again be re-supplied by a Qatari air-drop on Tuesday (28/6/11). This still wasn't enough and by Thursday Libyan government forces had succeeded in pushing the rebels back to positions some 50 miles (80km) outside Tripoli although some western news agencies are still trying to claim this as a rebel victory.
The purpose for all the publicity over the supply of weapons to the rebels was to provoke a reaction from China, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). On Thursday (30/6/11) China did react simply pointing out that the supply of weapons breaches the arms embargo imposed by UNSC resolution 1970(2011) and re-stated in resolution 1973(2011).
Despite the supply of weapons Britain seems to have given up hope of the rebels ever being able to take Tripoli. On Wednesday they confirmed that they had given the rebels permission to cut the oil pipeline that supplies the Zawiya refinery although it is believed that this has been done in such a way as to cause minimal damage rather then simply blowing it up. Britain hopes that the pressure this will put on the Libyan government will cause it to collapse and end the conflict by mid-August. Whether or not that happens the cutting of the pipeline will make life in Tripoli very unpleasant affecting everything from the delivery of food and medical services through to the supply electricity and sewage treatment facilities. That means that post-Qaddafi Libya is likely to be a disease ridden nation with no functioning government or infrastructure where tribal warlords fight each other for power with all the guns that have flooded the country. That's a recipe for a failed state if there ever was one. So the Libyans should probably stop thinking of this conflict in terms of weeks, months and days and just start accepting it as their new normal.
I should start with an explanation. During all the confusion of the Royal wedding/Mayday/bin Laden I gained a bit of time. Then during the confusion of the G8 Summit I gained a bit more time and in the process forced myself to work three Saturday's when I really didn't have to. However today (30/7/11) is the first day of the second week of the fourth month of the war against Libya or day 104 if you prefer.
Whatever you call it this week has been dominated by the Chinese Prime Minister's visit to Europe. As already mentioned at some length on Monday (27/6/11) the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Muammer Qaddafi, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi and Abdullah Senussi. This is despite both Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch releasing reports stating that there is no evidence whatsoever that Libyan government forces used rape as a weapon of war. The ICC's Chief Prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo has yet to retract that claim.
In terms of fighting it has been a relatively quiet week. The Ajdabiya/Brega front line and the Misrata front line are both still active and some NATO bombing continues. The real developments though have taken place on the Nafusa mountains front line. On Wednesday (29/6/11) a French newspaper, Le Figaro ran a government sponsored expose that revealed that France had parachuted supplies of assault rifles, sub-machine guns, ant-tank rockets and ammunition to the rebels in that area in early June. It was those weapons that enabled rebel fighters to mount their two week advance that ended when they ran into a Libyan government stop line about 30 miles (48km) outside Tripoli on 16/6/11. The rebels failure to break through this line meant that the rebels had to again be re-supplied by a Qatari air-drop on Tuesday (28/6/11). This still wasn't enough and by Thursday Libyan government forces had succeeded in pushing the rebels back to positions some 50 miles (80km) outside Tripoli although some western news agencies are still trying to claim this as a rebel victory.
The purpose for all the publicity over the supply of weapons to the rebels was to provoke a reaction from China, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). On Thursday (30/6/11) China did react simply pointing out that the supply of weapons breaches the arms embargo imposed by UNSC resolution 1970(2011) and re-stated in resolution 1973(2011).
Despite the supply of weapons Britain seems to have given up hope of the rebels ever being able to take Tripoli. On Wednesday they confirmed that they had given the rebels permission to cut the oil pipeline that supplies the Zawiya refinery although it is believed that this has been done in such a way as to cause minimal damage rather then simply blowing it up. Britain hopes that the pressure this will put on the Libyan government will cause it to collapse and end the conflict by mid-August. Whether or not that happens the cutting of the pipeline will make life in Tripoli very unpleasant affecting everything from the delivery of food and medical services through to the supply electricity and sewage treatment facilities. That means that post-Qaddafi Libya is likely to be a disease ridden nation with no functioning government or infrastructure where tribal warlords fight each other for power with all the guns that have flooded the country. That's a recipe for a failed state if there ever was one. So the Libyans should probably stop thinking of this conflict in terms of weeks, months and days and just start accepting it as their new normal.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 3, Day 2.
Originally titled; "Obama on Libya." on 30/6/11.
Yesterday (29/6/11) US President Obama gave his first full press conference since March. This was obviously timed to co-incide with the Chinese Prime Minister's visit to Germany. Although Obama covered a variety of topics in the hour long session the one that interested me the most was Libya because here the President appeared to be under very real political pressure.
Obama basically argued that because Qaddafi had killed some Americans in the 1980's American politicians couldn't possibly object to him being overthrown and instead were playing politics with the issue. That not true because it seems everyone - with the exception of Obama - can see that by authorising military action against Libya all Obama has done is caused tens of thousands of people to be killed unnecessarily while undermining US strategic interests. So I guess the question is what can American politicians do to get Obama to admit that he's made a mistake and correct it because right now it looks like America is facing death by a thousand cuts.
Yesterday (29/6/11) US President Obama gave his first full press conference since March. This was obviously timed to co-incide with the Chinese Prime Minister's visit to Germany. Although Obama covered a variety of topics in the hour long session the one that interested me the most was Libya because here the President appeared to be under very real political pressure.
Obama basically argued that because Qaddafi had killed some Americans in the 1980's American politicians couldn't possibly object to him being overthrown and instead were playing politics with the issue. That not true because it seems everyone - with the exception of Obama - can see that by authorising military action against Libya all Obama has done is caused tens of thousands of people to be killed unnecessarily while undermining US strategic interests. So I guess the question is what can American politicians do to get Obama to admit that he's made a mistake and correct it because right now it looks like America is facing death by a thousand cuts.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 2, Day 7.
Originally titled; "Worked Out the Qaddafi Warrants." on 28/6/11.
Well I worked them out at the time they were issued. However last night (27/6/11) I found information that supported my conclusion by simply reading the press release.
In order for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant a panel of three judges must be convinced that there is a case to answer. In the Qaddafi case those three judges were;
Judge Cuno Tarfusser, an Italian. The NATO bombing missions against Libya are actually being launched from Italy. Therefore the conflict of interest is so clear that Judge Tarfusser should have removed himself from the case.
Judge Sylvia Steiner, a Brazilian. Although clearly the best of a bad lot Judge Steiner has previously had to spend a lot of her time defending the ease at which she issues arrest warrants for suspects from resource rich African nations.
Judge Sanji Mmasenono Monageg, the lead judge from Botswana. For over two decades Botswana has been a primary target for British government aid spending. Specifically furthering the cause of women's rights by developing a British style legal system. Judge Mmasenono Monageg is a product of that program and is so obviously a British pet she may as well change her nationality in her biography.
Well I worked them out at the time they were issued. However last night (27/6/11) I found information that supported my conclusion by simply reading the press release.
In order for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant a panel of three judges must be convinced that there is a case to answer. In the Qaddafi case those three judges were;
Judge Cuno Tarfusser, an Italian. The NATO bombing missions against Libya are actually being launched from Italy. Therefore the conflict of interest is so clear that Judge Tarfusser should have removed himself from the case.
Judge Sylvia Steiner, a Brazilian. Although clearly the best of a bad lot Judge Steiner has previously had to spend a lot of her time defending the ease at which she issues arrest warrants for suspects from resource rich African nations.
Judge Sanji Mmasenono Monageg, the lead judge from Botswana. For over two decades Botswana has been a primary target for British government aid spending. Specifically furthering the cause of women's rights by developing a British style legal system. Judge Mmasenono Monageg is a product of that program and is so obviously a British pet she may as well change her nationality in her biography.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 2, Day 6.
Originally titled; "Bye Bye to the ICC." on 27/6/11.
Today (27/6/11) the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Muammer Qaddafi, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi and Abdullah Sanussi based on the chief prosecutor's report dated May 16th 2011. If you're that interested the case will rest on the question of whether the Libyan rebels are classed a civilians who are highly protected under the laws of war or non-uniformed combatants (spies) who are barely classed as human. Obviously that rule in itself is controversial and probably needs changing but at the time of the offence that was the rule.
However it's obvious that the issuing of today's warrants has nothing whatsoever to do with the situation in Libya. Through the rebels Britain has been manipulating the conflict in an effort to use it as a metaphor for so many things in the current UK/China bilateral talks that are being held in London. So by issuing these warrants all the ICC has succeeded in doing is to further destroy it's reputation by acting as a political tool of the UK.
You may have already noticed that the UK is currently on a mission to destabilise or destroy any international institution or treaty that threatens to restrict it's murderous rampage across the globe.
Today (27/6/11) the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Muammer Qaddafi, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi and Abdullah Sanussi based on the chief prosecutor's report dated May 16th 2011. If you're that interested the case will rest on the question of whether the Libyan rebels are classed a civilians who are highly protected under the laws of war or non-uniformed combatants (spies) who are barely classed as human. Obviously that rule in itself is controversial and probably needs changing but at the time of the offence that was the rule.
However it's obvious that the issuing of today's warrants has nothing whatsoever to do with the situation in Libya. Through the rebels Britain has been manipulating the conflict in an effort to use it as a metaphor for so many things in the current UK/China bilateral talks that are being held in London. So by issuing these warrants all the ICC has succeeded in doing is to further destroy it's reputation by acting as a political tool of the UK.
You may have already noticed that the UK is currently on a mission to destabilise or destroy any international institution or treaty that threatens to restrict it's murderous rampage across the globe.
Operation Oil Theft: Month 5, Week 2, Day 4.
Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 4, Week 3, Day 1." on 25/6/11.
Since Tuesday (21/6/11) Libya has been relatively peaceful. NATO bombing has continued but at a reduced rate. Libyan government and rebel forces continue to exchange fire along the three front lines of Ajdabiya, Misrata and the Nafusa mountains. Although they've been largely un-involved so far a large part of the coalition's (Britain, France, Qatar) recent effort has been to find out if Israel give their consent for the American/Egyptian training of rebel fighters that continues in the Green mountains.
On Wednesday (22/6/11) the coalition, specifically Qatar tried to increase the stranglehold on Tripoli by accusing Turkey of breaking the UN resolution by supplying food to the residents of the city. This obviously had the knock on effect of increasing tensions between Turkey and Syria over the issue of Syrian refugees. It also prompted the international community to push back against the coalition and get them to explain and justify exactly what they think they're up too in Libya. This is the third reason why Britain decided to leak the news that it's military has command of an underground network of rebel fighters in Tripoli.
The increased international opposition has also prompted the coalition to accelerate their efforts to improve the public image of the rebels. This has involved the release of numerous videos and statements designed to show that the rebels are capable of running a functioning state which security, health care and an economy. It has also involved addressing the war crimes that have been committed by the rebels during the conflict in order to both teach them that this is unacceptable behaviour and convince the world that it won't happen again.
One example of this was a video report from rebel positions near the Nafusa front line. It featured Libyan government troops who'd been captured by the rebels in order to show that the prisoners were being humanely treated rather then tortured and executed as they were in the early part of the conflict. The only problem was that during the interview one of the prisoners went into a long and scripted speech about how Qaddafi had lied to him and he didn't know he'd be forced to kill "innocent Libyans." This is a clear example of a prisoner of war being used for propaganda purposes - something that it strictly forbidden by the Geneva conventions. To make matters worse none to the prisoners were identified in the video so it didn't even qualify as showing proof of life. The report has also managed to inflame an argument between the Israelis and Palestinians over whether or not the Palestinians should release another video of their prisoner - Ghalid Shilat - to prove that he is still alive.
The complexity of the Libya conflict along with the time it has gone on for has prompted many in Europe, led by Italy, to call for some sort of peace deal that will allow Qaddafi to remain in power. Obviously though no-one is suggesting that any such deal would in any way affect the coalition's access to Libya's oil.
Since Tuesday (21/6/11) Libya has been relatively peaceful. NATO bombing has continued but at a reduced rate. Libyan government and rebel forces continue to exchange fire along the three front lines of Ajdabiya, Misrata and the Nafusa mountains. Although they've been largely un-involved so far a large part of the coalition's (Britain, France, Qatar) recent effort has been to find out if Israel give their consent for the American/Egyptian training of rebel fighters that continues in the Green mountains.
On Wednesday (22/6/11) the coalition, specifically Qatar tried to increase the stranglehold on Tripoli by accusing Turkey of breaking the UN resolution by supplying food to the residents of the city. This obviously had the knock on effect of increasing tensions between Turkey and Syria over the issue of Syrian refugees. It also prompted the international community to push back against the coalition and get them to explain and justify exactly what they think they're up too in Libya. This is the third reason why Britain decided to leak the news that it's military has command of an underground network of rebel fighters in Tripoli.
The increased international opposition has also prompted the coalition to accelerate their efforts to improve the public image of the rebels. This has involved the release of numerous videos and statements designed to show that the rebels are capable of running a functioning state which security, health care and an economy. It has also involved addressing the war crimes that have been committed by the rebels during the conflict in order to both teach them that this is unacceptable behaviour and convince the world that it won't happen again.
One example of this was a video report from rebel positions near the Nafusa front line. It featured Libyan government troops who'd been captured by the rebels in order to show that the prisoners were being humanely treated rather then tortured and executed as they were in the early part of the conflict. The only problem was that during the interview one of the prisoners went into a long and scripted speech about how Qaddafi had lied to him and he didn't know he'd be forced to kill "innocent Libyans." This is a clear example of a prisoner of war being used for propaganda purposes - something that it strictly forbidden by the Geneva conventions. To make matters worse none to the prisoners were identified in the video so it didn't even qualify as showing proof of life. The report has also managed to inflame an argument between the Israelis and Palestinians over whether or not the Palestinians should release another video of their prisoner - Ghalid Shilat - to prove that he is still alive.
The complexity of the Libya conflict along with the time it has gone on for has prompted many in Europe, led by Italy, to call for some sort of peace deal that will allow Qaddafi to remain in power. Obviously though no-one is suggesting that any such deal would in any way affect the coalition's access to Libya's oil.
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