Although I've not really had time to cover it the US-led coalition has
been continuing with its policy of conducting air-strikes against oil
storage and refinery facilities controlled by the Islamic State of Iraq
and the Levant (ISIL) within Syria. For example on Friday (17/10/14) the
coalition struck a facility in Shadadi - around 20km (12 miles)
south-west of Al-Hasakah, 140km (84 miles) north-east of Dayr az Zawr -
which contained a pump station and petroleum, oil and lubricant (POL)
tanks. As with Khorasan Shadadi is also the name of a province in Iran.
As I've explained on multiple occasions these strikes against ISIL
controlled oil facilities seem to have very little military value. Any
effect they have on disrupting ISIL funding through the black market
sale of oil is unlikely to be felt on the battlefield for months if not
years and they certainly have no impact on foreign donations which is
ISIL's main source of income. In the immediate term though these strikes
are going to make life much more difficult for civilians trapped within
ISIL controlled territory. This could well lead to those civilians
starting to think that the coalition is attacking them rather than ISIL
causing them to side with ISIL making it much harder for those areas to
be liberated when the time comes.
Making matters even worse on Saturday (18/10/14) coalition air-strikes
hit a fuel distribution depot in Khasham which is just 9km (5.4 miles)
on the outskirts of Dayr az Zawr which is around 115km (70 miles)
south-east of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa along the Euphrates River.
Although there are no details of any ISIL fighters being killed it is
being reported that 8 civilians - who were likely being forced to work
at gun point - were killed in the attack. I don't think I need to
explain how this will be used to claim that the US is simply trying to
kill Muslims rather then defeat ISIL.
What the coalition should be doing instead is concentrating its
firepower into areas where ISIL are still trying to advance. This
includes the area around Iraq's capital Baghdad and also the city of
Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6miles) from Syria's border
with Turkey and some 140km (84 miles) to the north-west of Raqqa.
As I mentioned on Friday Kobane's Kurdish defenders had withstood a
substantial attempt by ISIL to seize the city following a month long
siege. By Friday night the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) had
succeeded in reclaiming control of Kobane's south-western entrance and
had contained ISIL fighters in three small pockets of the city around
the north-eastern border crossing, the eastern "governance district" and
the south-eastern entrance to the city.
As a result over Friday night there was sporadic fighting in all three
of these areas and the north-eastern border crossing in particular.
However unlike previous incidents of fighting in that area this seemed
to be ISIL fighters trying to escape from Kobane rather then trying to
cut it off from the outside world. The major concern is that because
they still have at least partial control over the south-eastern entrance
to Kobane ISIL have been able to bring in heavier weapons such as
mortars. Armed with little more then assault rifles the YPG have little
response to this type of weapon and are therefore very reliant on
coalition air-strikes over which they seem to have little influence.
With the noose around Kobane being partially loosened by the YPG's
recent gains they have been able to bring in a medium sized company
(roughly 200) of fresh fighters from the surrounding villages. These
have included stragglers from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) who are dotted
around northern Syria. This is particularly interesting because it shows
that the people that US President Barack Obama wants to lead the fight
against ISIL - the FSA - have themselves been forced to admit that it is
the Kurds who are the only ones capable of leading the fight and they
are already doing so.
Despite the fact that the YPG have been able to bring in limited
reinforcements ISIL have been able to bring in far more resources.
Throughout Saturday ISIL called up fighters from across five separate
areas to converge on Kobane. On Saturday night those ISIL fighters
launched a concerted effort to enter Kobane via the south-western
entrance and cut the city off from YPG units that are holding the
western hill of Tall Shair. Although this attack was conducted using
ISIL's standard tactic of driving suicide truck bombs at enemy positions
before following up with infantry behind armoured vehicles the YPG were
able to repel this attack although there is talk of substantial
casualties. I am still waiting for details of what - if any -
air-strikes the coalition carried out in order to help repel this latest
assault.
This latest round of fighting does really serve to further underline why
the re-supply of Kobane has become a critical priority. Although the
YPG have been able to bring fresh fighters into the city those fighter
will all need food, water, ammunition and medical supplies. If Turkey
continues to refuse to allow those supplies to be brought in by road
across its border then the coalition needs to conduct air-drops to
deliver those supplies. After all it is clear that ISIL are desperate to
re-capture the area to the west of Kobane where any such air-drop could
occur and if those air-drops don't occur I doubt anyone will ever
believe that the coalition is doing all it can to defend Kobane.
Due to the US' seeming inability to put pressure on Turkey to either
open its border or allow the coalition to use United States Air Force
(USAF) base Incirlik in the fight against ISIL it seems unlikely that
Turkey will open its border to re-supply Kobane. In fact according to
Turkey's Aydinlik Daily news agency Turkey has actually moved further
towards establishing formal diplomatic ties with ISIL by allowing them
to open an Consulate in the Cankaya district of Turkey's capital Ankara.
This Consulate (basically a small Embassy) has apparently been issuing
visas for those wishing to fight alongside ISIL and means that in effect
Turkey has recognised ISIL occupied areas as a formal state.
A further indication of close co-operation between ISIL and Turkey came
with the news that ISIL is training pilots to fly 3 Su-24 multi-role
fighter aircraft that it captured from the Syrian air force. Although
these are amongst the targets that should have been destroyed in the
first wave of air-strikes in Syria I don't consider them a substantial
threat because they can be quickly dealt with if they do start causing
problems. However when you start to talk about resolving the threat of
ISIL aircraft you start getting close to a discussion about imposing a
no-fly zone which has been a key demand of Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan. Therefore the relationship between the two seems to be
that Erdogan demands so ISIL provide and vice versa.
As a result I think it is now time for the United Nations Security
Council (UNSC) to meet to discuss Turkey's violation of resolution 2170
(2014). After all it's pretty obvious that Erdogan is desperate to show
Turkish nationalists that he can wrap the US and the international
community around his little finger so they'll help him stay out of
prison on corruption charges.
(Originally Posted) 12:50 on 19/10/14 (UK date).
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