On Monday (1/9/14) the US Navy carried out a single air-strike close to
the Mosul Dam. Although it has not been confirmed whether the F-18 jet
dropped one or two bombs this single air-strike did succeed in
destroying or severely damaging 16 armed "Technical" trucks belonging to
the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). As such this was the
most destructive strike that the US has carried out in this operation
doing more damage then 15 air-strikes that were carried out over several
days last week. This of course serves to highlight just how ineffective
the US' policy of carrying out pinprick strikes against individual
targets has been.
The White House however seems to have been more interested in carrying
out air-strikes in Somalia. On Monday night/Tuesday (2/9/14) morning
they carried out strikes against senior figures in al-Shabaab including Ahmed
Abdi Godane who were meeting at a camp in south-central Somalia. Godane
and other senior al-Shabaab figures have been long standing targets of
the US and the US even launched a failed special forces raid against
them in October 2013. As such I think that intelligence showed that the
group were meeting up presenting an opportunity to kill them so that
opportunity was taken. It does though raise the question of why the US
is making the targeting of al-Shabaab a priority because it is certainly
a group that has evolved over the years in direct response to foreign
military action.
When they began to
emerge in the early 2000's al-Shabaab were simply an attempt to restore
order to Somalia which has lacked a functioning government since 1991.
Literally meaning "The Youth" al-Shabaab gathered together all the
heavily armed young men who were running around Somalia committing crime
and causing trouble. Al-Shabaab were under the supervision of the Union
of Islamic Courts (UIC) that was a sort of council of elders who were
trying to establish some sort of order using a relatively moderate
interpretation of Sharia law. Unfortunately though the UIC had the word
"Islamic" in their title so the US of President George W Bush carried
out a special forces and bombing campaign to wipe them out in the summer
of 2006.
Without the
supervision of the UIC al-Shabaab began to ally themselves with
Al-Qaeda. This along with the 2011 East African drought provided an
excuse for western nations to parachute in a pretty nasty unelected
puppet government for Somalia to fight al-Shabaab with the backing of
regional allies such as Uganda and Kenya. This led to al-Shabaab
becoming increasingly focused on terrorist activities including the 2013
attack on the Westgate shopping mall in Kenya.
Due to the unchecked
rise of ISIL Al-Qaeda are now considered the moderates when it comes to
Islamic terrorism meaning that they are loosing support internationally
to ISIL. So if the US killing al-Shabaab's leaders leads to them being
replaced by people who take the group closer to ISIL it would be
considered a failure for the US, Somalia and the region in general.
On the ground in
Iraq everything has been very much focused on consolidating the gains
made by the offencive to liberate Amerli over the weekend. So for
example the first UN aid convoys have been able to enter the town today
and the Iraqi military backed by the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and Shia
militias have been clearing the surrounding villages and removing ISIL
booby traps.
The loss of their positions around Amerli and around the Ain
Zalah oil fields have clearly hit ISIL hard so on Tuesday they executed
Steven Sotloff a US journalist who was being held hostage by the group
and whose life was specifically threatened in the video in which fellow
hostage and US journalist James Foley was beheaded. Sotloff's execution
was carried out in almost identical fashion with a British ISIL member
who has become known as "Jihadi John" threatening the US over the
air-strikes it has carried out before beheading Sotloff as punishment
for those strikes. He then threatens that David Haines a British
journalist being held hostage will be executed unless the air-strikes
cease. This video was released to the public via the Internet meaning
that while I don't have any interest in seeing someone being beheaded
the efforts to cover it up including by withholding the name of the UK
journalist seem rather pointless.
The very public nature of Sotloff's
execution also meant that US President Obama did not have the option of
not responding to it meaning that his only option was to retaliate
militarily against ISIL. So when 20 helicopters were spotted moving
close to the Turkey/Syria border in the hours after the release of the
video everyone assumed that it was the US launching a special forces
operation to rescue the remaining hostages or simply to strike hard
against ISIL. As it turns out the helicopters were actually Turkish
helicopters on a routine flight but overnight the US certainly seemed
happy to fuel the rumours of a possible operation.
Obama's actual response though was to
merely make a statement offering his condolences to Sotloff's friends
and family before claiming that the US will not be intimidated by such
actions and that its resolve to fight ISIL will only be strengthened.
However Obama really does need to back those words with strong action
because it is his hesitancy to act against ISIL that is leading them to
believe that he is being intimidated by their actions and this tactic of
taking and threatening to kill hostages could well be effective in
discouraging him from taking action against them.
Curiously though Obama has authorised
the deployment of a further 350 troops to Iraq bringing the total on the
ground to well above 1000 and possibly as high as 1600. This makes
sense because it immediately proves that Obama was lying when he said
that there would be no US boots on the ground in Iraq. It also shows
that he is perfectly happy to put more US lives in danger but is simply
too afraid to take action to protect those US lives.
15:10 on 3/9/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 10:20 on 4/9/14 (UK date) to add;
Over the weekend US air-strikes
contributed to ISIL losing the territory they held around the town of
Amerli. On Monday the US carried out its single most destructive
air-strike against ISIL. On Tuesday ISIL executed American hostage
Steven Sotloff in response to the air-strikes. Since then the US has not
carried out a single air-strike against ISIL.
As a result it is very easy to imagine
that ISIL have concluded that killing hostages is an effective way to
protect themselves from US air-strikes.
(Originally Posted on 3/9/14 - UK date).
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