As I said on Sunday (19/8/14) I thought it would be extremely unlikely
for Israel and the Palestinian factions to negotiate an extension to the
existing cease-fire. However on Monday (20/8/14) evening all parties
did manage to cobble together a 24 hour extension to allow for further
work on the existing proposal for a more long term cease-fire.
Although it was never officially declared I suspect the proposal on the
table was the latest compromise suggested by the Egyptian mediators
which involves Israeli restrictions on Gaza being gradually lifted in
return for an absence of rocket fire and tunnel attacks from Gaza. While
I've never been comfortable with the idea of Gaza becoming simply
another Israeli suburb I thought this was generally quite a sensible
proposal. The reintroduction of the normal flow of Israeli goods into
Gaza would of course provide immediate relief to the people of Gaza but
would have stopped short of providing Hamas with a clear victory by
rewarding them for starting a war with Israel. The denial of such a
victory is something that I consider very important both for the region
as a whole and the Israeli government which has come under a lot of
internal pressure - some justified, some less so - over its desire to
seek a cease-fire in Gaza.
However in the meantime Hamas' failure to deliver a clear victory from
this war has led to people in Gaza including the various factions to
question whether Hamas can continue as the Gazan government. As a result
one of the Palestinian factions decided to break the cease-fire by
launching rockets into southern Israel at around 13:00 (16:00 local). I
think the situation regarding the different Palestinian factions is
rather well summed up by this clip from the Monty Python film "The Life
of Brian"; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS-0Az7dgRY
After all it is based on the different Palestinian factions in the
1970's. That all obviously raises questions within Israel about whether
the complete demilitarisation of Hamas is in fact a sensible idea.
In the meantime though the firing of rockets into Israel left no option
other then for the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) to conduct air-strikes
against the rocket launch sites. Those Israeli air-strikes have in turn
provoked a certain type of unity amongst the Palestinian factions
prompting them all to start firing rockets into Israel. The IDF will of
course continue to respond to these rocket launches in line with their
standing Rules of Engagement (RoE).
On the diplomatic front the resumption of rocket fire has caused Israel
to withdraw their negotiators from Egypt and the Egyptians to suspend
their role as mediator. Hopefully though following a night of violence
diplomatic efforts can resume tomorrow. After all Israel certainly has
the capacity for a long war of attrition.
(Originally Posted) 20:45 on 19/8/14 (UK date).
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