In the roughly 24 hours since my previous post the intensity of the
conflict in Gaza has dropped off dramatically from its peak. In that
time Hamas and other militants groups have fired around 20 rockets and
mortars into Israel. Judging from the range these rockets have reached
they have all been of the lower tech Qassam and Grad type rather then
the more sophisticated M-75 and M-302 varieties.
In response the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have carried out 25
air-strikes. The majority of these have been against rocket launch sites
including one close to Gaza City port. However the IDF have also
continued to target weapons storage facilities and militant fighters
themselves. This included an air-strike against a Mercedes car in Rafah
in which 4 Hamas fighters were confirmed killed.
Things have proved more interesting on the diplomatic front. Although it
is difficult to get hard facts out of the talks in Cairo, Egypt because
often there are no hard facts to give out and while negotiations of
this type often require a more delicate touch then I can provide here
there seems to have been real progress on a compromise deal. Although
unconfirmed this compromise is said to involve Hamas deferring the issue
of sea and air ports for Gaza to the Palestinian Authority while Israel
allows fishermen up to 20 nautical miles out to sea and Egypt re-opens
the Rafah crossing under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority.
This is a good deal for the Israelis because it removes concerns that
Hamas will use any air or sea port to re-arm whilst removing any concern
that Hamas fighters will attempt to enter Israel to carry out attacks.
It is also a good deal for the Palestinians because it allows for a
massive increase of goods flowing into Gaza from Egypt. The fact that it
is Egypt and the Palestinian Authority that will be managing the Rafah
crossing also removes the fear that Israel will simply use the lifting
of the blockade as a way to further weaken Hamas by depriving them of
tax revenues.
The main concern is of course still going to be the issue of arms
control - specifically that Hamas will use the Rafah crossing to smuggle
in more weapons from across Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula in
particular. This is an area where all the international actors such as
the United Nations, the European Union and the US who have spent weeks
demanding that both sides agree a cease-fire could actually make
themselves useful. The primary source of weapons flowing into Gaza has
been Libya. There is already a United Nations program to control the
flow of illicit weapons out of Libya dating back from November 2011. As
such it shouldn't take too much to firstly get that program working and
then expand it to specifically deal with the flow of weapons across
Egypt and into Gaza.
Despite this compromise deal reportedly being on the table the
Palestinian negotiators have apparently threatened to walk out of the
negotiations unless the Israeli delegation rejoins talks by the end of
today. I personally think that this is the wrong way to approach the
problem because although the Palestinians seem to have the start of a
very good idea I think still need to do much more work with the
Egyptians on the details before the plan can be presented to Israel and
then - after more work - the wider international community for
consideration.
(Originally Posted) 13:50 on 10/8/14 (UK date).
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