Yesterday the US-led coalition air-dropped 27 bundles of weapons,
ammunition and medical supplies provided by the Kurdish Peshmerga in
Iraq to the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) who have been
defending the strategically important city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which
sits just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey. Of those
bundles 26 were successfully recovered by the YPG while the 27th missed
it's target and was seized by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL) who quickly released a video showing their success. What they
have been a lot less keen to show you is what happened shortly
afterwards when a coalition air-strike destroyed the enitre area around
that 27th bundle.
Despite this air-drop which the YPG estimate will sustain them for
roughly a week the battle of Kobane is still not over and the city is
still far from secure. Although they have been forced out of most of the
city ISIL continue to occupy three large sections of the east of the
city close to the northern border crossing, the governance district and
the south-eastern entrance to the city. This gives ISIL control of
around 20% of the Kobane. They also continue to control the majority of
the area surrounding the city including Mistenur hill to the south-east
although they have been forced off Tall Shair hill to the west and the
area between Tall Shair and Kobane.
From these positions ISIL have been able to continue raining artillery,
mortar and tank fire down on the city. Last night ISIL launched
something of a fresh assault on the northern border crossing area
leading to significant fighting. However it is not yet clear whether
this was a substantial attempt by ISIL to seize more territory, rescue
fighters that are trapped in the area or simply harassment type raids
intended to wear down the defenders ahead of a full assault. Whatever
the intention the YPG were able to repel these attacks with the help of 6
coalition air-strikes that targeted ISIL mortar and other firing
positions.
This latest wave of fighting goes to the core of the negotiations over
bringing Peshmerga forces into Kobane via Turkey which Turkey promised
to open shortly after the coalition air-drop. Although you can never
have too many of them the YPG in Kobane don't really need large numbers
of troops to reinforce them. What they need instead is a small number of
highly trained field commanders with specialist skills such as acting
as as forward air controllers. The main thing the YPG need though is
advanced medium and heavy weapons such as mortars and MILAN-type
anti-tank missiles.
At the moment if the YPG are faced with a tank, suicide truck bomb,
heavy machine gun or even a well defended sniper position their only option
is to request a coalition air-strike. As far as I can tell this involves
the YPG telephoning someone in Turkey who in turn will telephone
someone in Iraq who will speak to an American who will request an
air-strike. If approved it will take an hour or so for the aircraft to
turn up and carry out the strike. By that time the target may well have
killed the YPG fighters requesting the strike, moved so the strike
happens dangerously close to the YPG positions or has simply withdrawn
from the area entirely. If the YPG had more advanced weapons they could
simply take out any target as soon as they identify it making their
defence that much more effective and freeing up coalition aircraft for
other tasks.
As such rather then being about the number of Kurdish fighters being
moved through Turkey and where they've come from (Iraq, Turkey or Syria)
discussions with Turkey should be more focused on what types of
equipment those fighters can bring with them.
One thing that is becoming increasingly apparent is that ISIL are
growing deeply frustrated by their inability to seize Kobane. As a
result they yesterday lashed out by launching a fresh attack in the
Sinjar mountains region of Iraq. The main target here seems to have been
the village of Sharfadin which contains one of the few remaining
shrines belonging to the Yazidi religion. As such ISIL seem to have
launched this attack in order to demonstrate that they are still capable
of wiping out people they view as infidels and destroying their holy
sites. Unfortunately for ISIL this effort failed with the attack being
repelled by Peshmerga fighters following a day of fighting.
Also yesterday ISIL launched a suicide truck bomb against a Peshmerga
check-point close to the Mosul Dam which is around 120 km (70 miles)
north-west of the Iraqi Kurdish capital Arbil and 40km (24 miles)
north-west of ISIL held Mosul. This suicide bomb was destroyed by the
Peshmerga before it reached the check-point meaning that nobody other
then the driver was killed in the attack. Also it was not followed up by
any other ISIL vehicles or fighters meaning that it was not an attempt
to seize the dam. As such it seems best described as ISIL throwing
something of a childish tempter tantrum.
Within Iraq's capital Baghdad ISIL's campaign of suicide bombings has
continued with 12 people being killed in twin bombings in the
predominately Shia district of Talbiyah this morning. This brings to 62
the total of people killed in bombings in Baghdad in the past 5 days. As
I mentioned yesterday the purpose of these bombings seems to be to
provoke Baghdad's Shia population into carrying out revenge attacks that
will force Baghdad's Sunni population into supporting ISIL allowing
ISIL to take control of Baghdad from within. Sadly there does seem to be
some evidence that this is beginning to work with the Iraqi police in
Baghdad's Karrada district engaging in gun battles overnight with the
Shia Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia who are demanding better protection for
Baghdad's Shias.
The events close to Sinjar and in particular at Mosul Dam and Baghdad
serve to highlight what a serious mistake it was for the coalition to
abandon operations in Iraq in favour of swanning off to bomb oil
refineries in Syria. It is beyond dispute that the coalitions forces are
at their strongest in Iraq because even the YPG will freely admit that
the Peshmerga are larger in number and better equipped. Dwarfing both
them and ISIL is the Iraqi military which even operating at only 50%
strength still numbers some 135,000 men who are armed with tanks and
other battlefield weapons. This massive advantage in strength - ISIL
only number around 32,000 - should have been used to impose a series of
quick defeats on ISIL that would have broken their morale reducing the
risk of revenge attacks such as that seen in Canada where a "lone-wolf"
jihadist today killed a Canadian soldier and wounded another.
In short by deciding to start bombing Syria before the operation in Iraq
was completed US President Barack Obama has made exactly the same
mistake that his predecessor George W Bush did when he decided to invade
Iraq before the operation in Afghanistan was completed. Given this
faithful recreation of the last decade of US history it seems a shame
that Obama can't muster even a little bit of Dubya's "You're Either With
Us Or Against Us!" bravado.
(Originally Posted) 17:20 on 21/10/14 (UK date).
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