Almost miraculously Kurdish fighters have continued to slow the advance
of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) fighters in Kobane/Ayn
al-Arab - the strategic city which sits just 1km (0.6 miles) from
Syria's border with Turkey and around 140km (84 miles) north of the ISIL
stronghold of Raqqa.
Unfortunately ISIL appear to be focusing their efforts on completely
encircling Kobane by seizing control of the cities only border crossing.
If this last remaining corridor to the outside world is closed by ISIL
then Kobane will simply become a killing ground. With 10,000 to 13,000
Kurdish civilians still within Kobane this will lead to a massacre that
far exceeds the scale of the atrocity at Srebrenica when more then 8,000
Bosniak civilians were slaughtered in just three days by Serbian
forces. Ratko Mladic the commander of Serb forces at the time is
currently on trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) over that
1995 genocide.
Despite a vast crime against humanity becoming increasingly imminent the
US-led coalition appears to have dramatically scaled back it's already
insufficient efforts to protect Kobane from ISIL. Since my post
yesterday there have been no reports of any further air-strikes against
ISIL positions in the area from either the US military or sources on the
ground. At a press conference yesterday the US' Deputy National
Security Adviser Tony Blinken attempted to justify the US' failure to
protect Kobane by claiming that it cannot commit resources to fighting
ISIL in Syria because their strategic priority is to protect Iraq from
ISIL's advance. This is simply not true.
You may remember that as recently as September 16th (16/9/14) the
Kurdish Peshmerga were poised to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul -
around 83km (50 miles) north-west of the Iraqi Kurdish capital of Arbil
and around 330km (200 miles) north of Baghdad - from ISIL after having
dramatically crossed the Great Zab River to liberate the towns and
villages around Mosul. The Iraqi army had also launched a large,
multi-pronged operation to secure Haditha - around 200km (120 miles)
north-west of Baghdad and 115km (69miles) south west of Tikrit - whilst
at the same time liberating the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah which are
100km (60miles) and 50km (30miles) west of the capital Baghdad
respectively.
Then on September 22nd (22/9/14) the annual opening of the United
Nations General Assembly (UNGA) began in New York, USA and the coalition
suddenly lost all interest in what was going on in Iraq deciding
instead to start randomly bombing targets in Syria. If this was an
attempt to secure a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution
granting the coalition the freedom to bomb Syrian government targets it
failed miserably. The coalition has though continued to focus all its
efforts on randomly bombing Syria at the expense to Iraqi efforts to
liberate the cities of Mosul, Ramadi and Fallujah from ISIL control. As a
result the Iraqi military has found itself overstretched and ISIL have
continued to advance along the Euphrates River to the point where they
are now just 13km (8 miles) from Baghdad's international airport.
To further underline that Iraq is most certainly not the coalition's
strategic focus US President Barack Obama's Special Envoy for the
operation - General John Allen - recently stated that the coalition has
no intention of even beginning to plan an operation to liberate Mosul
for at least another year.
So it is abundantly clear that the US' strategic focus is not to defeat
ISIL in Iraq nor is it to defeat ISIL in Syria. Instead the US' main
focus seems to be putting on an bit of a show to convince voters that it
is doing something while continuing to appease the wishes of local
despots.
The most clear evidence of that appeasement came yesterday when Deputy
State Department Spokeswoman Marie Harf announced that the US is going
to grant Turkey a role in training and arming supposedly moderate
opponents of the Syrian government. This is an absolutely massive gift
for the US to hand to Turkey and one that seems particularly poorly
timed given Turkey's role in the battle for Kobane where they have
repeatedly blocked attempts to get much needed supplies and
reinforcements to the city's defenders.
Despite the way it has been portrayed in the western media in particular
there never was something called "The Arab Spring." Instead there were
popular revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt which were rapidly followed by a
crushing of dissent and a race amongst the regional powers to dominate
the entire region. The most significant of these players have been Saudi
Arabia and Qatar but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also
had the role of an also-ran.
To start with Erdogan supported Egypt's Islamist 'President' Mohamed
Morsi. Then when Morsi was deposed in a popular uprising a year later
Erdogan began supporting Islamist terrorists linked to the Muslim
Brotherhood in their war against the Egyptian state under the 4-fingered
Rabaa protest banner. This is actually reminiscent of the way the
Ottoman Empire came absorb Syria with Turkey's Sultan Selim the First
seizing the role of Caliph from the Mamluk Sultanate of Egypt during the
Ottoman-Mamluk war of 1516/17.
With the overthrow of Morsi dramatically reducing Erdogan's influence in
the region he next turned his attention to massively increasing the
support he gave Islamist fighters in Syria in order to regain some
standing. As a result one of ISIL's main Twitter battle-cries is
"#Dabiq!" which is a reference to the 1516 battle of Marj Dabiq that
took place near modern day Aleppo in which Mamluk leader Al-Ashraf
Qansuh al-Ghawri was killed effectively winning the Ottoman-Mamluk war
for the Ottoman Empire.
As such I think it is an act of pure madness to involve Turkey in
military operations against ISIL in any way, shape or form because
Erdogan clearly has his own sectarian, expansionist agenda and is so closely
allied with ISIL that he cannot be trusted to fight them. However if
Turkey are to be granted such a privilege they should be expected to pay
a very high price for it. So if the US is even going to discuss the
issue of Turkish involvement then Turkey must first allow Syrian Kurds
to be supplied with weapons and equipment to fight ISIL and Turkey must
give permission for United States Air Force (USAF) Incirlik to be used
by coalition aircraft to fight ISIL.
(Originally Posted) 15:50 on 11/10/14 (UK date).
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