Over the past 24 hours the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
have continued their assault on the strategically important city of
Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6miles) from the Syrian border
with Turkey and is around 140km (84miles) north of the ISIL stronghold
of Raqqa.
With ISIL forces entering the eastern district of Kobane yesterday the
battle has now moved into intense street to street fighting which makes
it very difficult for even the people doing the fighting to be sure of
what exactly is going on. However it is clear that Kurdish forces have
been unable to repel ISIL from the eastern district and ISIL fighters
have now also entered the southern and western districts of the city.
The horror at what is taking place has caused widespread outrage and
triggered protests in a number of European cities including at the
European Parliament building in the Hague which was briefly occupied by
protesters last night. This seems to have been enough to shame the US
into finally taking some action to help the defenders of Kobane. In the
past 18 hours the US led coalition has carried out 8 air-strikes close
to Kobane.
These strikes have all been of the pin-prick type that seems to have
become the US' signature in this conflict with two aircraft (normally
F/A-18's) flying over Kobane every 2 hours or so and dropping a couple
of 227kg (500lb) Paveway type bombs on a fighting position (trenches)
here or a tank there. While these strikes have been welcomed by fighters
on the ground they are far too small and have come far too late to have
a decisive effect on the battle. In fact they may actually work to hand
ISIL a greater propaganda victory because if Kobane falls they will be
able to claim that they have managed to defeat coalition air-power. The
strikes though do allow US President Barack Obama to claim that he is
doing something and apparently that is the only thing that matters.
Although it would be unwise for the coalition to engage in air-strikes
within Kobane itself in order to launch their assault on the city ISIL
have had to surround it by placing fighting positions and artillery
position in the open areas to the east, south and west of the city
including Mistenur Hill which was seized on Sunday (5/10/14). These ISIL
positions have been used for several days to shell Kurdish fighters
within Kobane in order to weaken the city's defences.
So what the US should do is deploy some of its B-1 Lancer bombers which
were used in the initial air-strikes on Syria on September 23rd
(23/10/14). Unlike the F/A-18 Hornet or similar aircraft which can only
really carry 6 x 227kg (500lb) bombs the B1 Lancer can carry up to 84 x
227kg (500lb) bombs. As such a single B1 Lancer can do the job of 14
F/A-18 Hornets meaning that all ISIL positions around Kobane could be
almost completely destroyed within minutes. This would obviously stop
those ISIL positions firing in support of ISIL fighters within Kobane
and would also cut those fighters off from their support/supply teams
outside of the city making them much easier for the Kurdish defenders to
defeat. It would also in one fell swoop destroy a lot of ISIL's
fighters and equipment - that is what Obama means when he says he is
going to "degrade ISIL" whether he has realised it or not.
In the absence of effective action by the coalition the prospect of
Kobane falling into ISIL's hands seems to be filling the Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with glee. While his security forces
continue to kill Kurds within Turkey Erdogan is now putting pressure on
the coalition to allow him to send in Turkish ground troops to occupy
Syrian Kurdistan. Erdogan's behaviour has been likened to Stalin's
behaviour during the battle of Warsaw in 1944 where Soviet tanks stood
by and watched Nazi troops massacre the free Polish forces in order to
allow Soviet Union to occupy Poland.
As such the coalition cannot even entertain the idea of allowing Turkish
troops to enter Syria until Turkey gives the coalition permission to
fly aircraft from United States Air Force (USAF) Incirlik which is
around 800km (500 miles) for Kobane in order to mount "Operation
Northern Watch" style armed patrols over Iraq. The prospect of Kobane
falling dramatically increases the urgency that the coalition begins
this type of operation immediately. If Kobane falls then ISIL are likely
to re-deploy their forces to strengthen their positions in Iraq around
Ramadi and Fallujah in order to renew their efforts to seize Iraq's
capital Baghdad which is just 50km (30 miles) from Fallujah.
Perhaps underlining the necessity that the coalition gets a plan for
Iraq up and running Belgium flew their first combat operation on Monday
(6/10/14) while today the Dutch carried out their first air-strikes
against ISIL targets in northern Iraq.
(Originally Posted) 16:25 on 7/10/14 (UK date).
No comments:
Post a Comment