The Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab is now in its 63rd day. Over the past
several days the fighting has once again settled into an attrition phase
with the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) trying to consolidate
their recent gains while the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
launched wave after wave of counter attack to re-gain territory they
have lost.
In the east of the city the majority of the fighting has been focused on
the Azadi (Freedom) Square and the Reshad Mosque areas. Despite almost
two days of near continuous fighting it seems that no territory has been
lost or gained by either side although the YPG have captured quantities
of weapons and ammunition from ISIL and killed at least 18 ISIL
fighters including 1 senior commander. In the south of the city there
have been similar clashes although these seem to have been almost
completely continuous in nature making it hard to assess exact details
of what has taken place. However it is becoming clear that the YPG have
not lost any significant territory.
On the outskirts of Kobane the YPG have pushed out west beyond Tall
Shair hill and into the villages of Minaz and Gire Iza. This increases
the buffer between Kobane and ISIL forces on the western front to around
8km (4.8 miles) substantially loosening ISIL's siege of the city. To
the south-east the YPG have continued to expand and then consolidate
their hold on the main road between Kobane and the ISIL stronghold of
Raqqa - 140km (84 miles) to the south-east - at the village of Helinj.
This of course cuts ISIL's main supply line into Kobane however the YPG
have not yet been able to fully re-capture Mishtenur hill which would
completely trap ISIL in the south of Kobane. This of course puts the YPG
fighters in Helinj in a perilous position holding out between two large
groups of ISIL fighters.
Across all fronts the YPG have lost 8 fighters in the last two days.
Although they have been able to capture weapons and ammunition from ISIL
it has been almost two full weeks since YPG units in Kobane were fully
re-supplied and the fighting has once again moved into an attrition
phase. Therefore it is becoming increasingly urgent that Kobane is soon
re-supplied again - ideally by road from Turkey - or all the gains that
have been made in the past two weeks risk being overturned.
ISIL have also been suffering substantial set-backs in Iraq. On Friday
(14/11/14) the Iraqi government announced that it had not only liberated
the town of Beiji which sits around 180km (105 miles) north of Iraq's
capital Baghdad but also broken the siege of the large oil refinery that
sits just outside Beiji. This is certainly more truth then lie. On
Wednesday (12/11/14) the Iraq Army backed by Shia militiamen had
liberated around 60% of Beiji including the critical central district.
Throughout Thursday they pushed directly north out of the town
liberating around a further 20% of the city in the process. From Beiji's
northern border the Iraqi forces then quickly moved directly to the oil
refinery which is around 5km (3 miles) to the north thus breaking the
ISIL siege of the refinery which has been going on since June.
As a result the Beiji refinery which produces around 25% of Iraq's oil
products including gasoline is close to being back in production.
However the Iraqis still need to clear ISIL from the areas in Beiji town
they still hold along with the areas to the north, east and west of the
refinery alongside making the whole area safe from roadside bombs and
booby traps. While I appreciate the need to for good news the speed at
which the Iraqis announced that Beiji had been totally liberated is
unlikely to win them any friends. That's because it gives the impression
that they don't quite understand the scale of the task ahead of them
and that doesn't inspire confidence in them as a fighting force.
Any concerns about the Iraqis fighting abilities that the premature
announcement of victory at Beiji may have caused were quickly dispelled
on Saturday (15/11/14) when they also re-captured the Adhaim Dam from
ISIL. Sitting around 100km (60 miles) north of Baghdad and around 115km
(70 miles) south-east of Beiji the Adhaim Dam is considered Iraq's third
largest behind Mosul and Haditha Dams and is primarily used for
irrigation of vital farmland in the surrounding area. As with Iraq's
other dams it sits in front of a large reservoir which if the dam was
destroyed could be used as a tsunami-style weapon on mass destruction.
Despite the Iraqis and the Syrian Kurds significant gains against ISIL
the US-led coalition has seemed far more interested in carrying out
symbolic, showpiece bombing rather then offering support to those
fighting ISIL.
On Friday the US announced that it had again carried out air-strikes
against the mythical "Khorasan Group." As I explain every time they're
mentioned the Khorasan Group are more of a loose assembly of highly
trained, core Al-Qaeda fighters rather then an actual group. Their name
which was assigned by US intelligence comes from a large province in
north-eastern Iran. As such they exist more as a euphemism for Iran or
more generally Shia Muslims rather then an actual enemy. Unfortunately
I've not been able to find out which Syrian group the US actually bombed
in the attack but as the strikes occurred in Aleppo City it seems that
the location of the attack was more important then the target itself.
Located 50km (30 miles) east of Syria's western border with Turkey
Aleppo City sits around 100km (60 miles) west of the ISIL stronghold of
Raqqa and around 450km (270 miles) north of Syria's capital Damascus.
The capital of Aleppo province Aleppo City provides something of a neat
microcosm of the entire Syria conflict. The majority of the city
(65-70%) is controlled by the Syrian government while a further 20-25%
is controlled by the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF). The
remaining 5-10% of the city is in the hands of other rebel groups in
either the Free Syrian Army (FSA) or the Islamic Front (IF) groupings.
However recently FSA groups in the area such as the Syrian
Revolutionaries Front (SRF) and Harakat Hazm have recently switched
their allegiance to ANF. The area outside of Aleppo City is under ISIL
control.
Ever since Hezbollah joined the fight in Syria at the request of the
Syrian government back in April 2013 all the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups
have slowly and steadily been losing territory to the Syrian
government. This is a large part of the reason why ISIL turned tail and
headed off into Iraq in late 2013. As the Syrian government has been
focusing its efforts on reclaiming territory along Syria's western side
Aleppo City has recently become the next city on their list and they
have steadily been re-capturing it. However as the insurgent groups grip
on reality has always been a bit tenuous they have decided that it is
the US-led coalition's air-strikes against ISIL that is causing the
Syrian government to gain ground in Aleppo City. As such the United
Nations Special Envoy on Syria - Staffan de Mistura -
has been proposing a freeze on the fighting in Aleppo City. Primarily
this is an effort to stop the insurgent groups being defeated but it is
being presented as a way to seperate the fight against ISIL from the
wider conflict in Syria.
Therefore the real reason behind the attack in Aleppo
was US President Obama making concessions to the Sunni-Arab insurgent
groups and Turkey by indicating that he is far more interested in
starting an illegal war against the Syrian government and killing as
many Shias as possible rather then defeating ISIL. The US made a further
concession on Saturday when it announced that it is going to pay for
2000 fighters from Sunni-Arab insurgent groups to be trained in Turkey.
As both the SRF and Harakat Hazm were trained and supplied with US
weapons in Turkey before defecting to Al Qaeda and taking that US paid
for training and weapons with them this doesn't strike me as the
brightest idea the US has ever had.
Meanwhile Turkey is still refusing the allow the
coalition to use USAF base Incirlik or move supplies to Kobane through
Turkish territory. Also on Friday Turkey announced that 12 people who
had been arrested for assaulting 2 US Navy sailors in Istanbul on
Wednesday (12/11/14) were to be released without charge, bail or even
questioning. This represents a very clear endorsement by the Turkish
government of assaults on US service personnel and seems to confirm that
the attacks themselves were planned in advance by the Turkish
government.
Putting aside concerns over whether the Sunni-Arab
insurgent groups can be trusted and the fact that making concessions to
Turkey under these circumstances makes the US look extremely weak
Saturday provided further evidence that this plan simply will not work
when Syrian civilians rose up against the local Sunni-Arab insurgent
group in Douma.
What's been happening in this suburb around 15km (9 miles) to the
north-east of Damascus is your pretty standard failed state gangsterism.
Basically the Army of Islam who are part of the IF grouping had been
exploiting food shortages to drive up prices and line their own pockets.
Amid complaints from local residents the Army of Islam crucified a man
who had led the complaints in the main square. This attempt to terrorise
the local population into silence failed and on Saturday local
residents attempted to storm the Army of Islam's food stores. The Army
of Islam opened fire on them to stop them.
This
morning ISIL released another of their propaganda videos. Lasting
around 15 minutes this was divided into three main sections. The opening
section gives a brief history of the group in which a clear effort was
made to emphasise that it was formed to kill US troops in Iraq but was
later forced to fight against the Syria's Shia led government (which is
considered infidels) in order to avoid divisions with other Sunni-Arab
insurgent groups that were fighting the Syrian government.
This utterly destroys Obama's repeated claims that ISIL was formed in
response to the actions of the Syrian government. It also almost seems
to be celebrating Obama's promise to send more US troops to Iraq because
ISIL obviously intends to kill them.
The second section of the video shows the beheading of
18 Syrian government soldiers and airmen. The video is keen to emphasise
that they are members of the Shia Alawite sect and therefore considered
infidels. This section seems primarily to terrify ISIL opponents but
also reassure the other Sunni-Arab insurgents that ISIL is still
committed to fighting Syria's infidel government and killing as many
Shias as possible. The other thing I found interesting about this
section is that it actually shows the beheadings. Hacking somebody's
head off with a bayonet is really quite difficult especially when you
have to cut through the spinal cord. Therefore previous beheading videos
have actually only shown the victim's throat being cut before an edit
and then footage of the decapitated corpse. This has led to ISIL
supporters on the Internet and other conspiracy theorists to claim that
the videos have actually been faked to provide a justification for
fighting ISIL. So by actually showing the beheadings this time ISIL seem
to be trying to convince their own supporters that yes they do indeed
cut people's heads off.
The final section features audio recordings of
different Islamist groups in places like Libya, Algeria and Yemen
pledging allegiance to ISIL. It also features audio recordings of ISIL's
self-styled Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi accepting those pledges of
allegiance and welcoming the new members. Crucially this section
includes the pledge by Ansar Beit al-Maqdis - an Egyptian group
based in the Sinai. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis only pledged allegiance to
ISIL last Monday (10/11/14) several days after al-Baghdadi was injured
in an air-strike near Mosul in Iraq. Therefore this is intended to prove
that al-Baghdadi was not killed or even seriously wounded in the US
attack.
Really driving home that point the video ends with British born ISIL
"executioner-in-chief" who is known as "Jihadi John" standing with the
decapitated head of former US Army Ranger Peter Kassig at his feet. This
is intended to be a big "F*ck You!" to America over the Mosul
air-strike by showing that it was not a success and ISIL are still most
certainly in business. It actually appears as though prior to the
release of the video ISIL put around a false rumour that Jihadi John had
also been injured in the strike in order to maximise the impact of his
shock return. Finally although he was in Syria as an aid worker and
converted to ISIL's branch of Islam whilst in captivity the video
ignores all that and instead focuses on the fact that Kassig served with
the "armies of the cross" (US Army) in Iraq.
That struck me as ISIL practically demanding that Obama sends more US
troops to Iraq for ISIL to kill. I however think it should make Obama
think long and hard about the way he is prepared to sacrifice American
lives for political convenience.
(Originally Posted) 17:40 on 16/11/14 (UK date)
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