Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces backed by Shia militia's from Baghdad
have continued to mop up towns and villages such as Tuz Khurma in the
Kirkuk and Saladin provinces after liberating the town of Amerli on
August 31st (31/8/14) from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL).
This is always a slow process because after liberating an area the
incoming forces need to dismantle any defences and booby traps that have
been left behind. They then need to gather local intelligence before
going house to house to recover any remaining fighters or weapons that
have been left behind. Until this process has been completed an area
can't properly be considered secure allowing troops to move onto the
next area. As a result Iraqi forces have not yet begun to move into
positions to retake the city of Hawija if indeed that is there next
objective.
Over the weekend Kurdish Peshmerga forces continued their advances
across the mountains and plains stretching across the northern Dahuk and
Ninevah provinces. ISIL have now been cleared well away from the Sinjar
mountains and on Sunday (7/9/14) the Peshmerga took control over Mount
Zartak and the surrounding plains. This leaves the Peshmerga in complete
control over all the high ground overlooking the city of Mosul which
puts them in a very strong position should they move in to liberate
Mosul itself.
Despite the advances of Iraqi government forces in recent days it seems
ISIL still have some fight left in them. Today they pushed back against
the advances made in Saladin province with a fresh attempt to seize the
town of Dhuluiya which is around 70km (42miles) north of Baghdad and
125km (75miles) south east of Tikrit. The assault began shortly before
dawn with twin suicide bombers detonating Humvees packed with explosives
at a tribal gathering inside the town. This was followed up by a
traditional ground assault both by land and by river backed by
battlefield weapons such as mortars and heavy machine guns. After two
hours of intense fighting the assault was broken and ISIL were forced
back.
Dhuluiya actually provides quite an interesting example of what is
happening on the ground in Iraq because it is a Sunni dominated town.
However contrary the intelligence assessments that US President Obama
appears to be working from the residents of Dhuluiya have not welcomed
ISIL with open arms. Instead they have spent the last two or so months
fighting hard to resist ISIL and have formed strong alliances with
neighbouring Shia dominated towns in their fight. They are though
getting increasingly frustrated with the lack of support they are being
given in their fight complaining that much like Amerli not enough is
being done to keep them supplied with food, medical supplies and
ammunition.
The US is still very much debating whether and how much support to
provide in the fight against ISIL. On Sunday they carried out an as yet
undisclosed number of air-strikes against undisclosed targets close to
the Haditha Dam in Anbar province. Essentially what has been going on
there is that Iraqi forces as still very much in control of Haditha Dam.
However since the fall of Anbar province back in January 2014 ISIL have
been constantly threatening to seize the dam - which is the second
largest in Iraq - and it has come under intermittent attack by heavy
weapons and mortars. Sunday's air-strikes represent the US' first
strikes in the predominately Sunni Anbar province. They are also very
far away from the US' stated area of operations close to Arbil leading
the US to declare that the strikes were necessary to protect US citizens
in Iraq who would be endangered if Haditha Dam was captured or
destroyed. As with Mosul Dam this is perfectly valid reasoning.
As such the main target of Sunday's strikes seems to have been the US
public. The intention being to test out whether they would tolerate the
US expanding its operations to defeat ISIL rather then simply protecting
US citizens. As the US is already spending the money and putting its
people at - an albeit tiny - risk by flying combat operations over Iraq
I'm struggling to think of a reason why the US shouldn't also carry out
an effective operation against ISIL. However I'm sure that quite a few
Democrat members of Congress who are hoping to campaign in the November
elections on how successful Obama was at ending the war in Iraq will
probably see that differently.
On the diplomatic front the US State Department is rather childishly
refusing to publicly comment on whether John Kerry has started his tour
of the middle-east or what nations he will be visiting. However you may
be able to glean some clues from the fact that Arab League held an
extraordinary session in Cairo, Egypt over the weekend. At that meeting
the Arab League declared ISIL to be a "threat to the existence to all
Arab states" and authorised the use of "all political and military
solutions" against them. Added to the agreement of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organisation (NATO) on Friday (5/9/14) that brings the total
number of nations in the coalition against ISIL to 32 made up primarily
of Arab nations.
With it being made abundantly clear that the US is really the only
holdout in the fight against ISIL Obama's hand has been forced so he has
promised to make an announcement of how he intends to fight ISIL on
Wednesday (10/9/14). Based on the way that Obama has conducted himself
so far in the conflict and his Presidency in general this is unlikely to
be a precursor to the necessary intensification of the US' operation.
Instead it is likely to simply be an announcement that that US will
expand its Rules of Engagement (RoE) beyond merely protecting US
citizens. However the operation itself is likely to continue at its
current low intensity level of pin-prick strikes only against a wider
range of targets.
After all Obama's main objective here seems to be to protect ISIL at all
costs while making the conflict last for as long as possible.
(Originally Posted) 16:25 on 8/9/14 (UK date).
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