If the situation in Iraq over the last couple of days could be summed up
in a single word it would be "Stasis." It is almost as if everybody is
waiting to see what will happen next.
The town of Amerli remains under siege from the Islamic State of Iraq
and the Levant (ISIL). There continues to be no large scale plan to
deliver urgent supplies to its 26,000 residents and there continues to
be no plan to evacuate them. However the Iraqi military has managed to
mount a small relief effort similar to the one seen on Mount Sinjar with
helicopters delivering small amounts of aid and ammunition and
evacuating small numbers of residents. As a result ISIL fighters remain
unable to seize the town but Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces continue
to lack the strength to break the siege and save the town. Today there
are reports that the Peshmerga backed by Iraqi forces have launched a
fresh attempt to break the siege with an assault on four sides. One
thing that could aid Amerli is that ISIL fighters seem to be
concentrating their forces elsewhere.
ISIL's main focus seems to be continuing their efforts to encircle the
capital Baghdad in order to lay siege to it and cut it off from the
countries main oilfields in the south east. To this end there was
intense fighting in Mahmoudiya which is just 29km (17.5miles) south of
Baghdad. As far as I can tell Mahmoudiya has not yet fallen to ISIL who
are being held off by the Iraqi army and Shia militiamen who are also
participating in the effort to re-take Amerli. Although it is a good
thing that ISIL are being prevented from gaining more territory the
involvement of militia's could present its own set of problems. Firstly
militias are not trained to the standard of the regular army and are
therefore more prone to carrying out human rights abuses. Secondly if
they are successful these militias will likely expect some sort of
reward either in terms of money or preferential treatment from the Iraqi
government. This risks deepening secular tensions within Iraq which
ISIL is already exploiting to its advantage.
One thing that may have helped to slow ISIL advance is that the
Peshmerga have launched an offensive in Nineveh province to seize
control of a strategically important road between the border with Syria
and Mosul. This was making steady progress with the Peshmerga taking
control off the Ain Zalah oil fields
close to the road on Thursday (28/8/14). However since then ISIL have
set fire to at least three oil wells creating an intense fire that has
covered the area in thick black smoke which is delaying the Peshmerga's
advance.
The US response to all this has been
nominal at best. Since my previous post on the subject on Monday
(25/8/14) the US has carried out just 14 air-strikes which succeeded in
destroying 13 armed "technical" trucks, 2 Humvees, 1 tank and 5
supply/construction trucks. They also succeeded in damaging 2 technicals
and 2 ISIL buildings/checkpoints. 12 of these strikes took place close
to the Mosul Dam and 2 took place close to Arbil neither of which are
within 200km (120miles) of the main combat areas. The cost of flying US
aircraft over Iraq to effectively watch the fighting as it is taking
place has been put at around USD7.5million per day meaning that so far
the operation has cost USD173million.
Despite this large financial and
humanitarian cost US President Obama's main priority seems to be slowing
down the operation as much as possible. On Tuesday (26/8/14) it was
announced that the US had expanded its operation to include
reconnaissance flights over ISIL positions in Syria. Although this makes
some sense because the more information you have about your enemy the
better able you are to prioritise targets in order to do the maximum
damage at the minimum risk it seems more like Obama trying to put up
further barriers to taking effective action in Iraq.
If the US wants to carry out airstrikes
against ISIL positions in Syria they will have to seek the permission of
the Syrian government if for no other reason then the Syrian government
has modern air defence systems. This will involve the US having to
recognise the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria which is
something it has refused to do over the past three and a half years as
it has attempted to help ISIL topple the Syrian government. Therefore
Obama seems to be hoping that people in the US will baulk at this idea
providing him with an excuse not to take effective action in Iraq.
Obama also appears to using the issue of
Syria in an effort to reduce the international pressure on him to take
action in Iraq. Having been shocked by the sheer brutality of ISIL's
behaviour both the UK and Australia have been very vocal in their calls
for military action to be taken to stop them with the UK even moving
aircraft to Cyprus in preparation for that action only to be stood down
at the US' request. On Wednesday (27/8/14) the US unofficially let it be
known that it had contacted both the UK and Australia to ask them to
take part in a military coalition against ISIL in Syria although both
Britain and Australia deny that the US has made such a request.
Obama's hope here seemed to be that
because the UK in particular has been a very vocal supporter of the
attempts to overthrow the Syrian government the prospect of having to
acknowledge its legitimacy would cause them to back down. After all it
would be very difficult for the UK to continue pursuing ruinous EU
sanctions against Russia whilst at the same time admitting that Russia
was in the right while they were in the wrong. Due to the Commonwealth
link if the UK declined to join a military operation under such
circumstances it is extremely unlikely that Australia would go it alone.
The UK's decision to raise the terror
threat level on Friday (29/8/14) in response to ISIL and Australia's
offer to aid the United Nations with intelligence gathering in Syria
today both seem intended to indicate that the prospect of taking action
in Syria frightens neither the UK nor Australia. However I think both
nations are still waiting for the US to formally make the request.
Beyond putting around the rumour that it
had asked the UK and Australia Obama on Thursday (28/8/14) announced
that he would be sending Secretary of State John Kerry to the
middle-east to build a coalition for action against ISIL. I think the
hope here was that this would be viewed by US voters as Obama showing
that he is different from George W Bush by seeking international
agreement rather then taking unilateral military action.
The problem for Obama is that this
international coalition already exists and has already given permission
for military action. On August 15th (15/8/14) the United Nations
Security Council (UNSC) met and passed resolution 2170(2014)
on both ISIL and Al-Nusra Front (ANF). This resolution called on
nations to do everything in their power to stop both organisations and
is a Chapter 7 resolution that authorises the use of military force. No
member of the UN has challenged the passing of this resolution meaning
that a global consensus on the issue has already been reached and the
legal basis for action is in place.
As such the true purpose to Kerry's tour
is to provide Obama with yet another delay. For example the tour isn't
even scheduled to begin until the end of the NATO Summit on September
5th (5/9/14). Also while Obama thinks that it is important for this tour
to take place he is as yet unable to actually name any of the nations
it is important to consult with. As a result this tour has no agenda and
therefore no predicted end date.
Sadly we are already seeing the effects
of Obama's procrastination on the ground in Syria. When ISIL carried out
their big June offensive they seized huge amounts of heavy weaponry and
armoured vehicles from the Iraqi military. As Obama refused to
intervene at the time ISIL have been able to transport large amounts of
that weaponry into Syria. There they have used it attack and expel ANF
from the north of Syria.
In response the Al Qaeda linked ANF have
regrouped in the small area of territory held by the US backed Free
Syrian Army (FSA) close to the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. Over the
past week ANF have attacked and defeated the FSA seizing control of the
Quneitra border crossing. In the process they have kidnapped some 120
troops attached to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force
(UNDOF). This has led to rumours that the Israeli Defence Force (IDF)
has been forced to move up to take the positions that were lost by the
UNDOF troops and today engaged in a battle with ANF to rescue 75 of
those troops.
So we are now in a position where the
moderate opposition in Syria is Al Qaeda and those forces are now face
to face with the IDF on Israel's border. If ANF attack Israel they will
have no option other then to fight back. This means that any future
military action will be viewed as being in support of the hated
'Zionists' which will further inflame an already complex and dangerous
situation. In short there is simply no more time left to waste.
(Originally Posted) 21:20 on 30/8/14 (UK date).
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