Tuesday (4/11/14) marked the Day of Ashura. To extreme Sunni Muslims
this is a day of mourning over the Egyptian Pharaoh's decision to free
Jewish slaves. To Shia Muslims it commemorates the death of Husayn
ibn-Ali - the son of Ali ibn Abi Talib (the first Shia Caliph) who was
the cousin and brother-in-law of the Prophet Mohamed - at the hands of
Yazid I (the first Sunni Caliph) at the Battle of Karbala in 680AD. It
was this event that really cemented the division between Sunni and Shia
Muslims.
As Karbala sits around 100km (62 miles) south-west of Iraq's capital
Baghdad people across Iraq, Syria and the wider middle-east spent the
day really on edge waiting to see what horrific atrocities the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) would commit against Shia pilgrims
who were marking the event. Either through increased security, a lack of
will on ISIL's part or combination of the two no such attack(s) took.
Adding to the tense stand-off of Ashura Tuesday also saw the US mid-term
elections which with the US leading the anti-ISIL coalition were
closely watched. As a result not much has actually happened in the last
couple of days and many of my Kurdish contacts in particular seemed to
go into hiding for the duration of the election.
However a couple of relatively quiet days in Iraq and Syria most
certainly does not mean that the Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab has
suddenly ended. On Tuesday and Wednesday there was sporadic fighting
between the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and ISIL on both the
southern and eastern fronts. On both of these fronts the YPG have
seemed to hold the upper hand pushing ISIL back street-by-street and
house-by-house. However I need to stress that despite ISIL fighters
being killed and equipment being captured progress is slow and ISIL are
hardly in full retreat. In fact ISIL seemed to have switched their
attention to the western section of the city and the area between Kobane
and Tall Shair hill. This large push by ISIL began on Tuesday night and
by all accounts seems to be continuing as I write. The YPG seem to be
holding out well with no notable loss of territory and at least 15 ISIL
fighters being killed in the fighting on that front.
Sadly I've not heard any further news on rumours of a second Peshmerga
supply convoy travelling from Arbil in Iraq to Kobane via Turkey.
Although the YPG do now seem able to bring in small amounts of supplies
from their other positions in northern Syria the failure to secure a
supply corridor across Turkey is still a significant problem. Firstly it
represents the quickest and easiest way to make sure that ISIL can be
defeated at Kobane and the coalition really needs to start imposing
defeats on ISIL. Secondly it would make it clear to Turkey that the fall
of Kobane is not up for negotiation and the coalition is committed to
defeating ISIL not engaging in endless discussions about overthrowing
the Syrian government.
That second priority makes the US' actions overnight even harder to
explain. Last night US aircraft carried out five strikes on targets in
and around the Bab al-Hawa which is around 45km (27 miles) west of
Aleppo city on the border with Turkey. The US is claiming that these
strikes were aimed at members of the mysterious "Khorasan Group."
However as I explained when this 'group' was first targeted during the
first wave or air-strikes on Syria there is no such organisation as the
Khorasan Group. There is though a loose grouping of effectively Al Qaeda
special forces trainers who have travelled to Syria to help various
rebel groups fight ISIL. Quite why US intelligence decided to group
these individuals together and name them after a province in
north-eastern Iran is still a bit of a mystery to everyone.
What the US actually did last night was attack an Islamist group known
as the Free Men of the Levant (FML) - Ahrar al-Sham in Arabic - who are
part of the Islamic Front (IF) grouping. This is a problem because the
coalition is only bombing in Syria under the authority of the United
Nations Security Council (UNSC) specifically resolution 2170 (2014).
That only gives authority for operations against ISIL and the Al Qaeda
affiliate Al-Nusra Front (ANF). As they clearly have a similar agenda
to ISIL I am not overly concerned about FML being attacked. However if
the coalition starts attacking groups that it does not have authority to
do so where and when will it stop?
Therefore I think that the real reason behind the strike on FML was the
US trying to pledge its allegiance to the Saudi, Qatari and Turkish
cause despite the mid-term election result. After all the Syrian
government did recently kill most of FML's Saudi appointed leadership
during fighting in Aleppo city. The Syrian government is predominately
Shia and Iran is the world's largest Shia nation - hence all the random
references to Khorasan.
Elsewhere in the coalition the UK has announced that it is sending
further ground troops to Iraqi Kurdistan to train the Peshmerga. As such
I should point out that this doesn't exceed the authority given by the
UK Parliament because these aren't combat troops and UK troops
frequently get sent all over the world to train people. Beyond the
obvious need to train up the Peshmerga this move seems intended to
remind the US that the Kurds are considered the only option for a ground
force and the coalition is meant to be fighting ISIL primarily in Iraq.
After all if the US air-strikes that began in Arbil continue their
westward march before long this will end up as a war against Greece
rather than ISIL.
(Originally Posted) 20:45 on 6/11/14 (UK date).
No comments:
Post a Comment