On Syria's northern border with Turkey the Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab
is now into its 67th day. Although I don't want to jinx things it seems
that we might now be at the beginning of the end of the battle or at
least at the end of the middle.
On the cities southern front the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG)
who are defending Kobane completed a fresh offensive Sunday (16/11/14)
to re-take several streets and key positions held by the Islamic State
of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In the days since this YPG success ISIL
have made no attempt to re-capture the territory they have lost. This
has left the YPG free to mount patrols in the area which have succeeded
in killing 15 ISIL fighters, capturing large quantities of weapons and
ammunition and defusing a number of booby traps (Improvised Explosive
Devices/IED) left by ISIL.
On the eastern front the YPG on Sunday launched an operation to
re-capture the Sukul Hal district along with areas around Azadi
(Freedom) Square and the adjacent municipality/governance district. Much
to the YPG's surprise ISIL simply melted away from the Azadi Square
area meaning that a lot of territory was captured almost without a shot
being fired. Along with large quantities of weapons and ammunition ISIL
also abandoned their dead meaning that the first YPG fighters in
discovered 23 bodies including two senior ISIL commanders known as Abu
Haris and Saiful Islam.
Again ISIL made no attempt to launch a counter-offensive so after
consolidating their position the YPG on Wednesday (19/11/14) launched a
new operation to liberate parts of the Sukul Hal district. This
operation was successful in liberating the small areas it targeted and
it seems that ISIL were only able to put up light resistance with 7 ISIL
fighters being killed bringing the total killed in that area since
Sunday to 12. In that same period 1 YPG fighter has been killed across
all fronts.
On the western front the YPG have continued to push out beyond Kobane's
walls launching operations to liberate the villages of Minaz, Gire Iza
and Mazra which sit around 5km (3 miles) from Kobane itself. In these
villages it is still very much a case of the YPG launching an operation
to seize territory from ISIL only for ISIL to launch a counter-attack
forcing the YPG to consolidate these gains. However the YPG is
succeeding in taking and holding territory and 22 ISIL fighters have
been killed with no loss of Kurdish life.
Due to the continuing operations to liberate the south of Kobane which
are by necessity slow and steady the YPG have not yet been able to
liberate Mishtenur hill which overlooks the south-east of the city.
However it has been almost a week since ISIL have been able to fire on
Kobane from the hill so I think it is now best thought of as a sort of
no-mans land rather then an ISIL fighting position.
Key to the silencing of ISIL positions on Mishtenur hill has been the
YPG operation to liberate the village of Helinj which sits on the main
road between Kobane and the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa some 140km (84
miles) to the south-east. The YPG have not only succeeded in holding
Helinj but they have also succeeded in expanding their position to
include the near-by village of Jalabiyah. This means that the YPG have
now established an effective buffer zone between ISIL forces in Kobane
and ISIL forces in Raqqa.
Although the fighting is not over these gains mean that we are now in a
position where we can start thinking about establishing a defensive
perimeter around Kobane so ISIL can never again get close to the city
and it can be used as a safe haven for civilians in the area. In order
to do this the YPG will need medium to long range weapons such as heavy
artillery guns and Grad/Katyusha type rocket launchers along with plenty
of ammunition. That way they can then rain down fire on ISIL forces
located several kilometres away in order to prevent them from assembling
an attacking force to launch a fresh attempt to capture Kobane.
That makes the assertion on Tuesday (18/11/14) by Masoud Barzani,
President of Iraq’s Kurdistan region that the US-led coalition is simply
not doing enough to support the Kurds with heavy weapons and ammunition
sadly wholly accurate and incredibly well timed.
Despite the almost complete lack of support from the coalition Iraq's
Kurds have also been making significant gains against ISIL. In Diyal
province which sits to the west of Iraq's capital Baghdad the Iraqi
Kurdish Peshmerga worked alongside the Iraqi Army to liberate the towns
of Saadiya and Jalula which have been under ISIL control since June.
Along with the liberation of Adhaim Dam over the weekend this latest
operation helps to further reduce the amount of territory under ISIL
control. In Kirkuk province which sits around 50km (30 miles) south of
the Iraqi Kurdish capital of Arbil the Peshmerga liberated the town of
Kharbaroot. Although it is not a particularly significant town and one
that shows up on few maps the liberation of Kharbaroot means that ISIL
have now been pushed at least 35km (22 miles) from the city of Kirkuk
which has been under siege since June.
In light of all these gains it is tempting to celebrate rather then
mourn the suicide car bomb attack in Arbil which killed 5 yesterday.
After all it seems the occasional car bombing is all that ISIL can
manage against the Kurds these days.
Unusually for operations of this type in their effort to liberate
Kharbaroot the Peshmerga were provided with substantial close air
support by the US-led coalition. Led by French and British aircraft the
Peshmerga's advance was proceeded by a repeated air-strikes against a
defensive trench/bunker/barricade network that ISIL had built around the
town. Once those defensive positions had been destroyed it was much as
easier for the Peshmerga to move in and take control of the territory.
US aircraft also played a small role in the operation because as they
are leading the coalition any air operation must first receive US
approval. I suspect the conversations between the US and the British and
French commanders who were seeking permission for that particular
operation were rather interesting.
Left to their own devices the US still seems much more interested in
carrying out symbolic air-strikes that are of limited military value but
provide plenty of interesting political talking points. On Tuesday the
US once again struck targets belonging to the mythical Khorasan Group
close to the town of Haram which sits on Syria's border with Turkey some
64km (38 miles) west of Aleppo City. As I explained in my previous post
on the subject the Khorasan Group only really exist as a euphemism for
Iran or more generally Shia Muslims while Aleppo City provides a
microcosm of the entire Syria conflict.
Therefore this strike again seems to be the US attempting to discuss
with Turkey using Sunni-Arab insurgents to fight ISIL in Syria. However
as Haram is generally considered ISIL held territory and its name
translates as "Sinful/Forbidden" it could have been an attempt to
discuss the way in which Turkey seems to view ISIL as just another
Sunni-Arab insurgent group.
Turkey's response to this was to announce that it had not yet confirmed
its permission to train 2000 Sunni-Arab insurgents in Turkey as the US
offered over the weekend. This really highlights want an absolute mess
US President Barack Obama is making of this entire operation. The
logical thing for the coalition to do would be to work with the Kurds to
defeat ISIL in both Iraq and Syria while leaving the conflict between
the Syrian government and the other Sunni-Arab insurgent groups to its
own devices. However Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is blocking
this firstly because he passionately hates Kurds and secondly because he
wants to use the fight against ISIL as a sneaky way to build up the
Sunni-Arab insurgent groups who are fighting the predominately Shia-Arab
Syrian government.
Given how obstructive he is being most people would have told Erdogan to
p*ss off by now but Obama's handling of the situation has been so poor
that he now seems to be in the position where he is not only giving in
to every one of Erdogan's demands but he is also being forced to make
concessions in order to give into Erdogan's demands.
Within Iraq's capital Baghdad ISIL suicide car bombings continue often
with such attacks occurring several times a day. The overwhelming
majority of these target civilians in Shia neighbourhoods. However on
Sunday ISIL succeeded in attacking a United Nations (UN) convoy as it
made its way from Baghdad international airport to Baghdad's "Green
Zone" along what is known to many as "Route Irish." Although no UN
personnel were killed in this attack it is an extremely bad sign given
Obama's plan to double the number of US troops on the ground in Baghdad.
After all ISIL have made it extremely clear that they intend to kill
American troops and this demonstrates that they have the capability to
do so. Therefore I seriously think that the US Congress will have to
look very hard at blocking Obama's proposal at least until they can
secure concrete support for the Kurds in return.
US President Obama will tonight address the American public during a
prime time televised speech. However he will not be talking about the
recent killing of Peter Kassig nor how the wider fight against ISIL is
progressing. Instead Obama - a Democrat - will use it as an opportunity
to fire the starting pistol on a massive confrontation with the newly
Republican Congress over immigration reform.
As such I think it's becoming clearer why Obama has such an affinity for
domestic abusers such as Chris Brown. After all Obama's clearly too
much of a coward to stand up for himself at work so instead he picks
fights in his home(land) in a pitiful effort to prove that he's a tough
guy.
(Originally Posted) 17:50 on 20/11/14 (UK date).
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