The Latest Insanity in Ukraine.

Since the Cold War the United States has funded and directed extreme nationalist groups such as the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UIA) and the Right Sector. In the past three years this support for and the activities of these groups have become more aggressive as the US tries to exert pressure on Ukraine's neighbour Russia over its support for the Syrian government.

Needless to say matters reached a head during the middle of the 2014 Winter Olympics being held in Sochi, Russia - just across the Black Sea.  On Tuesday (18/2/14) members of the UIA and Right Sector attempted to storm the Parliament building in the capital Kiev. This led to a day of violence in which the Ukrainian police were forced to battle them back to their camp in Independence Square. On Wednesday (19/2/14) the Ukrainian government and opposition Parliamentarians agreed a truce that stopped the police clearing the square. Unfortunately the UIA and Right Sector saw this as an opportunity to open fire on and take hostage members of the police. This of course forced the police to return fire under the universal principle of self-defence.

On Friday (20/2/14) The Ukrainian government, opposition Parliamentarians and representatives of the European Union (EU) brokered a transition of power agreement that would have seen Ukraine revert to the 2004 version of its constitution, a government of national unity formed and fresh elections held in December 2014. To further defuse the situation Ukraine's President Vicktor Yanukovych left Kiev for Crimea. The idea being that if the UIA and Right Sector were given the small victory of seizing the Presidential compound they would calm down and not bother advance outside of the capital. Unfortunately Yanukovych then lost his nerve and fled Ukraine entirely.

Without a voice to counter them the UIA and Right Sector aligned with Yulia Tymoshenko's hopelessly corrupt Fatherland party and arbitrarily declared themselves the government of Ukraine. However as the Parliament lacks the legal power to make that decision for the purposes of international law Vicktor Yanukovych remains the President of Ukraine. Almost immediately after seizing the Parliament building the UIA and Right Sector launched into an aggressive series of policies designed to remove all trace of Russian/Slavic culture from Ukraine. For example they banned the speaking of Russian in public life and began tearing down buildings and statues that were put up during the time of the Soviet Union. Most alarmingly yesterday (1/3/14) Dmitry Yarosh the leader of Right Sector and self-proclaimed Deputy Minister for National Security and Defence publicly called on Chechen Islamist leader Doku Umarov to intensify his campaign of terrorist attacks against Russia civilians.

More worrying then their rhetoric the Ukrainian opposition have disbanded the Berkut police division and forced - at gunpoint - its members to kneel in front of a baying mob in Independence Square so the crowd could throw rocks and spit on them. They have also set about gutting the leadership of the Ukrainian military of Russian/Slavic members and replacing them with people sympathetic to the nationalist cause.  This creates a very real worry that the UIA and Right Sector are preparing to use military force to impose their extreme neo-Nazi views on the eastern Ukrainians who simply don't want them.

In response people in eastern Ukraine - particularly Crimea - have completely disregarded declarations from Kiev so rather then disbanding the Berkut they've actually been strengthening them. Also they have declared the autonomous Crimean Parliament as the government of Ukraine which legally has about the same level of credibility as the similar declaration from Kiev. Most worryingly they have been holding large protests against Kiev and starting forming militias to protect themselves should Kiev launch an attack. With reports that UIA and Right Sector militias from Kiev are starting to head east this creates a very real possibility of events such as those seen in Xinjiang, China where thugs armed with knives attacked crowds at a railway station killing 30 and wounding over 130 occurring in Ukraine ultimately plunging the nation into civil war.

Fortunately Russia has moved swiftly to calm the situation. On Friday (18/2/14) they deployed Marines on the streets of Crimea will the full permission of the Ukrainian government in Crimea and of Ukrainian President Yanukovych. On Saturday (1/3/14) this deployment was authorised by the Russian Parliament. This force with is said to be as high as 15,000 strong has a very powerful deterrent effect. Firstly it deters the Ukrainian government in Kiev from making any aggressive moves that will inflame the situation. Secondly it allows the people of eastern Ukrainian feel that they are protected from the UIA and Right Sector. This deters them from forming militias of their own which should keep the situation under control because highly trained Russian Marines will behave far more professionally then a rag-tag militia.

The way that the Russians have gone about deploying this peacekeeping force is highly amusing though. Firstly the although uniformed the Marines are not flying any flag nor displaying any insignia. As a result if war were to break out and they became engaged in combat they would be considered unlawful combatants under the Geneva Conventions. Secondly the absence of a Ukrainian government creates all sorts of questions about whether the presence of foreign troops undermines Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial independence. These questions are of massive importance in discussions at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) about the conflicts in Syria and Libya where western nations led by the US seem to have absolutely no problem with unlawful combatants undermining a nation's sovereignty territorial integrity.

It is the posing of these wider questions rather then the presence of Russian troops that has got western members of the UNSC so angry because firstly it highlights their hypocrisy over Syria and Libya and secondly it underlines that what is going on in Ukraine is far from the popular, pro-democracy revolution they like to pretend it is. The only worry is that being a weak man US President Obama will ratchet up the rhetoric in an effort to appear tough and that will inflame the situation to the point where the rather naive Ukrainian government in Kiev do something stupid.


(Originally Posted) 12:45 on 2/3/14 (UK date).