The Latest on the DPRK.

Over the last couple of days the US has continued to provoke the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). On Sunday (31/3/13) they deployed top of the line F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft of South Korea. They followed this up on Monday (1/4/13) by deploying two warships (the USS John McCain and the USS Decatur) to the region amid continuing speculation about also deploying a floating X-band radar platform to region. On Tuesday (2/4/13) US Secretary of State John Kerry visited South Korea and made thinly veiled threats about protecting the nation against DPRK aggression. Today the US announced that it will be deploying a THAD ballistic missile defence system to Guam.

The DPRK has obviously been responding to this provocation. On Tuesday it announced that it would re-start the operation of it's nuclear reactor and uranium enrichment plant at Nyongbyon. Today the DPRK prevented South Koreans travelling to the Kaesong industrial park in the DPRK which is operated in co-operation with South Korea. What is interesting though is that the DPRK's reactions seem to be serving the interests of it's traditional enemy the US at the expense of itself and its traditional ally China.

Take the re-starting of the Nyongbyon nuclear reactor. While much has been made in the western media about this reactors ability to produce the plutonium needed to make nuclear weapons  this is not everyone's main concern. Instead they are worried that the DPRK is not technologically advanced enough to safely operate a nuclear reactor. So when Nyongbyon resumes operation there is a good chance it will simply blow up. This places the DPRK, South Korea and China at great risk of being showered with radioactive fall-out. The US of course will be unaffected by this while China and South Korea will also have to deal with an increased flow of refugees flooding out of the DPRK while dealing with the nuclear clean up.

Then there is the closure of the Kaesong industrial park. While it is difficult to come by accurate assessments of the DPRK economy as a whole and the Kaesong park in particular it is estimated that Kaesong contributes around USD10bn every year to the DPRK economy which represents roughly a quarter of their total annual GDP of around USD40bn. More importantly the money generated at Kaesong is foreign currency which is essential for the DPRK to buy imports such as fuel which is already being made difficult by sanctions and embargoes. Therefore if Kaesong remains shuttered for long it creates a very real threat that the DPRK will collapse economically creating floods of refugees into both South Korea and China.

This seems an incredibly stupid course of action for the US to be taking. Although the provocation of the DPRK is making life difficult for China it is also making life incredibly difficult for the US allies in the region such as South Korea and Japan along with nations across south-east Asia such as Vietnam and Cambodia that the US is attempting to improve relations with by forcing them all to work ten times harder to assess new threats on their doorstep. Their job is not been made any easier by the silly little references the US keeps throwing in. For example the USS John McCain is named after the John McCain that US President Obama defeated in 2008 prior to putting "Pivot towards the Pacific" policy in place. Likewise the speculation about the X-Band radar platform came on Monday when Chris Brown was working hard to promote his new album "X" - a name which in itself seems intended to cause maximum headaches. Put simply this is not how the US goes about making friends in south-east Asia.

The US' actions are also at great risk of having an extremely negative impact on the DPRK's transition towards democracy. In the DPRK you have an incredibly young, idealistic and inexperienced leader in the shape of Kim Jong-Un who seems desperate to move away from his nations past so his people can enjoy the same freedoms and quality of life enjoyed by people in the US. Kim Jong-Un is clearly the one who is making the decisions at the moment. However he is surrounded by much older and more experienced generals appointed by his father and grandfather who clearly don't share his good intentions and are constantly looking over his shoulder for evidence that he is making mistakes in order to sideline him.

As the crisis continues the evidence of Kim Jong-Un's strategic failings are starting to become more apparent. For example the closing of the border preventing South Korean workers travelling to and from the Kaesong industrial park was clearly intended to coincide with Rihanna's crossing of the US/Canada border. The problem was that the DPRK's estimate was out by around 24 hours. Also the way that the DPRK is currently behaving is making it much more difficult for traditional allies such as China to provide it with assistance and it is hardly likely that the US is suddenly going to repay the DPRK for all the help it's giving them against China. This coupled with the loss of revenue from the shuttering of the Kaesong industrial park is soon going to make Kim Jong-Un's position untenable amongst his generals. Signs of this pressure are already beginning to show with the appointment of Pak Pong-Ju as the DPRK's Prime Minister. Pak Pong-Ju is Kim Jong-Un's uncle and mentor. Therefore his appointment to such a powerful position can either be interpreted as sign of Kim Jong-Un attempting to shore up his position or a concession that he is struggling in his role and needs help.

Therefore the US' long term objective seems to be to significantly limit Kim Jong-Un's influence in the DPRK and in doing so preventing the nation emerging from international isolation and instituting democratic reforms in order to become a responsible member of the global community. Sadly this seems indicative of the US entire "Pivot towards the Pacific" policy which is seeing it tolerate some deeply unpleasant regimes in places like Myanmar (Burma), Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos simply to weaken those nations relationship with a China that has been gently nudging them to reform. No wonder the Secretary General of the UN (a South Korean) has basically told the US to stop.

(Originally Posted) 20:20 on 3/4/13.