I am still working on my analysis of Egypt's new interim government of
national unity. Turning into something of a mammoth task this is now not
likely to be ready until tomorrow, Sunday (21/7/13).
In the meantime though yesterday (19/7/13) the Muslim Brotherhood held
their "The Second Crossing" day of protest amid much tension, heightened
security and the fear of serious violence. In the end though it turned
out to be something of a damp squib. The main reason for this is that
according to international sources (the only available sources) the
Brotherhood's national call out only managed to attract a maximum of
20,000 demonstrators to Cairo. As a result they weren't able to march on
their designated targets of government and military buildings and
international Embassies or block roads or railway lines in large enough
numbers to cause the security forces any major problems.
There were though some small incidents of violence. The first of these
occurred at the al-Azhar Mosque before midday prayers and before the
official start of the Brotherhood's demonstrations. Brotherhood
protesters gathered in the yard of the Mosque calling for the US to
support Mohamed Morsi and condemn what they consider to be a coup. Local
residents then attacked the Brotherhood demonstrators with stones and
bottles forcing them out of the Mosque. Security forces intervened to
keep the two groups separate amid reports of limited gunfire although
there have been no reports of death of serious injury. The second
incident occurred when Brotherhood protesters marched on the
Presidential Palace. Fearing they were getting to close to the buildings
perimeter the army fired tear-gas and the demonstrators dispersed.
Again no fatalities or serious injuries have been reported.
A much more serious incident occurred in the city of Mansoura which is
around 120km (75miles) north of Cairo on the Nile delta. What appears to
have happened is that an all female protest under the banner of "Women
Against the Coup Movement" were marching towards the Agriculture
Directorate building when they were attacked by men armed with
knives/swords, clubs and according to some witnesses firearms. In the
ensuing chaos at three women were killed and at least one remains in a
critical condition in hospital. Egypt's public prosecutor has launched
an immediate investigation into the deaths and I fully support that
investigation.
In the meantime though the Muslim Brotherhood have claimed that this
attack was carried out by members of Mubarak's now disbanded National
Democratic Party (NDP) aided by members of the military. Therefore it is
entirely possible that the Brotherhood have moved on from provoking the
military into attacking their demonstrations to simply attacking their
own demonstrations in order to portray themselves as victims of
oppression. However it is also possible that this is a sign of how
deeply unpopular the Muslim Brotherhood and their protests have become
amongst Egypt's general population with people now taking matters into
their own hands to limit the disruption to everyday life that the
Brotherhood are causing. Quite apart from the fact that I think killing
someone for expressing a political view is entirely wrong I think that
members of the public should refrain from attacking Brotherhood
demonstrators because it is exactly the sort of thing that will garner
them sympathy and support helping to drag the protests and the
disruption they cause out for much longer.
Also on Friday the Egyptian military began it's big operation against
terrorists in the Sinai. However so far nothing much of note has
happened. So I should explain that while this is a large operation and
there will be fatalities the military's intention is not simply to kill
terrorists. Instead they intend to separate them from the civilian
population, capture their supplies and cut-off their re-supply routes.
Therefore most of the early part of the operation is going to involve
setting up check-points and gathering intelligence so when the military
does finally come to confront the terrorists they will be able to do so
in a way that minimises the risk of civilian casualties. Apart from
counter-balancing the Brotherhood's "Second Crossing" protest the
military operation appears to have been begun on the anniversary of the
1973 war with Israel in order to put the issue of the peace-treaty that
war led to on the agenda for US Secretary of State John Kerry's meetings
with Palestinian and Israeli leaders.
Late on Friday evening Kerry announced that those meetings had resulted
in the resumption of peace talks between the unelected and Saudi backed
Fatah dominated Palestinian Authority and Israel to be held in
Washington, US at an unspecified point in the future. Apart from playing
to the domestic US audience to make it look like the administration is
still a player in the middle-east the US' main aim was to get both
parties to Washington so the US can try and get a better understanding
of what it is going on in a region where the US hasn't been relevant
since the Libya war. Both Israel and Fatah's main motivation seems to be
to strengthen Fatah's standing at the expense of the elected Hamas
party. Although it is not the Egyptian military's intent Israel
especially is hoping the security crack-down in the Sinai will help it
achieve that end.
Finally in what is actually something of a side-note on Friday the UK
suspended licenses for the export of radio and communication equipment
along with spare parts for heavy machine guns and tanks to Egypt on the
grounds they may be used against protesters. However the UK is
continuing to allow the export of equipment such as assault rifles,
combat shotguns and acoustic riot control devices (stun grenades) which
are much more likely to be used against protesters. Therefore the
suspension of these licenses is a clear attempt by the UK to put
pressure on the Egyptian military in order to discourage them from
stabilising the security situation in the country. The really depressing
bit about this is that the Liberal Democrat Business Minister Vince
Cable no doubt genuinely thought that by suspending these licenses he
was showing solidarity for the people of Gaza by discouraging the Sinai
operation.
(Originally Posted) 16:30 on 20/7/13.
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