As you may have noticed I've not been giving daily updates on Egypt. In
part that is because there's a lot of other things going on at the
moment as the UK tries to hold it's post-G8 de-brief sessions which
events in Egypt have significantly disrupted. Mainly though it's because
with Ramadan taking place not much has actually happened in Egypt over
the past few days. The Muslim Brotherhood continue to hold their protest
in Cairo's Nasr city but it has failed to attract the numbers that the
Brotherhood were hoping for. More importantly the protest has remained
confined to Nasr city so there have been no major outbreaks of violence
beyond the general collapse of law and order in the country.
On Friday (12/7/13) the United Nations (UN) expressed concern about the
continued detention of Mohamed Morsi and others and this concern was
echoed by the German Foreign Ministry. Rather than being calls for
Morsi's release let alone his reinstatement as President these
statements simply reflect a general unease at the practice of arbitrary
detention. While I think everybody agrees that Morsi's continued
detention is justified under the circumstances the UN wouldn't be doing
it's job if it didn't at least question the practice. Germany's call
seemed specifically intended to antagonise the US over its initial
reticence in supporting the Egyptian revolution. This seems to have had
the desired affect because after apologetically confirming that it
agrees with the German position in response to a reporters question ("We
do agree" was the exact quote from the ruffled State Department
spokeswoman) the US confirmed on Saturday (13/7/13) that it will be
going ahead with the delivery of four F-16 fighter jets to Egypt. In a
further sign of support the US today announced that it is sending the
Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns to Egypt for a two day visit
beginning on Monday. With the Secretary of State John Kerry being
unavailable due to his wife's illness Burns is the most high ranking
diplomat the US can send.
On Saturday (13/7/13) Egypt's public prosecutor moved to dispel
international concerns about arbitrary detention by announcing that it
is investigating Mohamed Morsi and other members of the Muslim
Brotherhood including Mohammed Badie and Khairat El-Shater on
allegations of inciting violence, espionage and financial corruption
relating to the misuse of government funds. As is standard practice in
Egypt the investigator will conduct a preliminary investigation before
deciding whether to file formal charges. On the allegation of inciting
violence it is highly likely that charges will be filed because Morsi's
final address to the nation alone should be enough to convict him. The
espionage allegation seems equally well supported because Egypt defines
espionage as "Communicating with others to the detriment Egyptian
security" those others don't need to be foreigners so even Morsi and
Badie conspiring with each other to incite violence would be enough to
support the charge. As always the allegations of financial corruption
are more complicated but seem to relate to the economic disaster that
was Morsi's one year in power. The investigation is set to determine
whether this the result of massive incompetence or a more deliberate
attempt by the Brotherhood to use the wealth of the nation to enrich
themselves. The freezing of the assets of 14 members of the Muslim
Brotherhood and the Freedom & Justice Party is simply to stop
potential evidence in that investigation being destroyed.
On the political level Hazem el-Beblawi has been sworn in as interim
Prime Minister and Mohammed ElBaradei has been sworn in as his deputy.
There are also rumour and counter-rumour swirling about who will be
given posts in the government of national unity. Although there are too
many for me to comment on individually especially as some of them are
untrue to in order keep up with them I am now following the Egypt
Independent on Twitter. They were chosen because it was the first
English language Egyptian news outlet that Google spat out. I may
diversify later but in the meantime try not to panic.
One government appointment that has been confirmed is that of Nabil
Fahmy to the post of interim Foreign Minister. Holding a Bsc in Maths
and Physics Fahmy is clearly highly intelligent. Also as a career
diplomat who served as Egypt's Ambassador at large since 2008 he is
highly experienced in the world of both international and domestic
politics. His time as an Ambassador to the UN, along with stints in
Japan and the US will serve him and the nation especially well because
as with ElBaradei the fact that people already know him means they will
find it easier to trust him.
My only concern is that he is a member of the AlDostour party which is
headed by ElBaradei. As ElBaradei is now the interim deputy Prime
Minister this creates a risk that the AlDostour party will be over
represented in the government of national unity. However AlDoustour is
clearly the party that has attracted the most intelligent and
professional of Egypt's secularists and Egypt does really need to
streamline the number of secular parties ahead of the upcoming
elections. Forcing them to form new alliances and mergers as part of the
government of national unity may well be the way to do just that.
(Originally Posted) 17:20 on 14/7/13.
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