France's Intelligence Assessment on Syria.

Following in the footsteps of the UK and the US France yesterday (2/9/13) released its own intelligence assessment of the chemical weapons attack in Syria on August 21st (21/8/13). It can be read here; http://www.elysee.fr/assets/pdf/SyrieSynthese-nationale-de-renseignement-declassifie02-09-2013.pdf  However if like me you don't read French you will have to rely on a dodgy Internet translation.

Personally I don't think it's worth the effort because despite being the longest report at 9 pages the French assessment is probably the least informative. The majority of it is simply a history of the Syrian chemical weapons program since 1980 that the French collected as part of their non-proliferation efforts. This is all perfectly valid but as no-one is disputing that Syria has stockpiles of chemical weapons along with the missiles to deploy them this doesn't help to shed any light on events of August 21st. In fact I would go so far as to say that it has only been included in order to help pad the report out.

The other main area the assessment concentrates on are the videos and eyewitness statements that appeared on the Internet. The report concludes that it would not have been possible for the Saudi and Qatari Irregular Army (SQIA) to falsify all of these. That is probably true but all the videos demonstrate is that a chemical weapon - most probably Sarin - was released. They offer no clue as to who released that chemical weapon. The assessment attempts to place the blame on the Syrian government by claiming that the SQIA lack the capability to have used Sarin themselves. This conclusion of course contradicts the Syrian governments claims, the eyewitness testimony by local residents and SQIA fighters in the area that claim the SQIA in the area had been supplied with Sarin gas and the US' own intelligence assessment. As for the SQIA ability to deploy Sarin gas once you've got canisters of the stuff it is simply a matter of unscrewing the top of the canister and the gas will spread out.

Although the French assessment doesn't give credit it also relies on satellite images provided by the US to argue that the artillery bombardment prior to, during and after the release of the Sarin gas is consistent with the standard tactical procedure for the use of chemical weapons practised by the Syrian army. This is of course true but once again is hardly conclusive because this is an almost universal tactical procedure for the use of chemical weapons that is taught to military's the world over including ones that don't have access to chemical weapons. The SQIA are most certainly aware of this procedure because their ranks now include Adnan Silu the former head of the Syrian army's chemical weapons division who helped draw up the procedure in the first place. Therefore it would be all to easy for the SQIA to use a conventional weapons bombardment as an excuse to release their chemical weapons in order to make it look as though the Syrian army were following the standard tactical procedure.

Apart from being embarrassed about how reliant they are on US' military support I think the main reason why the French assessment failed to credit US satellite imagery as one of its main sources was to avoid drawing attention to serious questions that have been raised about that information. In the 14th paragraph of the US report that can be read here; http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/08/30/us-government-assessment-syria-use-chemical-weapons/  reference is made to the preparation of chemical weapons several days prior to August 21st. Over the weekend this prompted the obvious question of why if the US had prior knowledge that this attack was going to take place they didn't attempt to stop the attack or warn people. The only answer the US has been able to give so far is that at the time this activity didn't look any different from the routine movement of chemical weapon stocks that the Syrian army has been regularly undertaken over the last 12-15 months. Therefore I would be very interested to know how this routine movement suddenly became concrete evidence of attack preparations when it came to writing the US assessment.

Also the 15th paragraph of the US assessment talks about a 90 minute gap between the alleged attack and the first reports of people showing symptoms of exposure to Sarin gas. Although I appreciate that in the confusion it takes time for people to realise what is going on and seek help symptoms of Sarin gas exposure normally appear within 30 minutes. That means there is a big gap of at least 45 minutes between the Syrian army allegedly firing Sarin filled rockets and that Sarin starting to have an effect on people in the area. This is more than enough time for SQIA commanders to get on the radio and order the release of their stockpiles of Sarin.


On a related note Israel and the US this morning conducted a test of Israel's US made Arrow missile defence system. This involved an Israeli air force jet firing and inert target missile and the Arrow system seeing if it could shoot it down. The test was exactly what it says on the tin. Israel is well aware that a US attack on Syria will likely be a precursor for a SQIA/Syrian government attack on Israel. Therefore they want to make sure their defence systems are working. The fact that the US has yet to confirm the Israel announcement of the test indicates a degree of tension between the two allies meaning that it will be interesting to see if the test was successful.


(Originally Posted) 16:50 on 3/9/13.