Egypt's Continuing Revolution: Month 13, Week 2, Day 2.

In the 20 something hours since Mohamed Morsi was officially deposed the Egyptian military's main priority has been keeping the peace.

This has mainly focused on shutting down the Muslim Brotherhood owned Egypt25 TV station along with the Salifist owned Al-Hafiz and Al Nas TV stations. Rather than being an attempt to censor Islamist voices and exclude them from Egypt's political process this was simply done to stop them inciting violence. For example Morsi himself said in an address to the nation on Tuesday (2/7/13) that "[his Presidency] was the only guarantee against violence" which was a not particularly subtle call on his supporters - many of who have pledged to defend Morsi with their lives - to take up arms. Qatari owned Al-Jazeera's Egyptian TV station Mabasher Misr was given the benefit of the doubt despite it focusing all it's coverage on the pro-Morsi demonstration in Nasr city. It then broadcast a taped statement from Morsi on which he proclaimed himself to still be the President and urged his supporters to resist what he descibed as a full military coup. Mabasher Misr was then raided by the military and taken off air. However I'm sure that Mabasher Misr along with Egypt25, Al-Hafiz and Al-Nas will be allowed to start broadcasting again just as soon as the military are confident that there won't be any serious violence and those TV stations won't attempt to incite it.

The military's other main effort to keep the peace has been to arrest 300 of the Muslim Brotherhood's top leadership. Obviously with that high number of arrests I cannot comment on each individual case. For example I understand that some of them escaped from prison during the aftermath of the fall of Mubarak. The Brotherhood's supreme leader Mohammed Badie and his first deputy Khairat El-Shater have both been arrested on a specific allegation that they incited the killing of anti-Morsi protesters outside the Muslim Brotherhood's headquarters on Sunday (30/6/13). Obviously if there is a case to answer they will have to stand trial and sent to prison if convicted.  However the majority of the arrests seem to simply be an attempt to take the Brotherhood's leadership out of the game during the transition period to stop them inciting and organising further violence. Provided they are treated humanely I have absolutely no problem with them being detained. The military might even consider commandeering a hotel to hold them in more pleasant conditions then a prison. Obviously how long these emergency measures continue depends on the situation on the ground rather than some arbitrary timeline but I wouldn't consider lifting it for at least 7-10 days.

The military's actions have rather been justified by the events overnight. Although there has not been a orgy of violence and retaliation there have been deaths and injuries. The worst of these incidents occurred in the northern city of Marsa Matrouh where 14 people were killed - including 2 members of the security forces - in clashes between pro and anti-Morsi supporters. 3 people were killed and 50 injured in clashes in Alexandria and 3 people were killed in Minya. Dozens were also wounded in Fayoum as the offices of Morsi's Freedom & Justice Party were looted in what seems to be an uncalled for revenge attack. There have also been reports nation wide of armed Islamists forcing Christians from their homes. This all needs to stop for the simple reason that the longer it goes on for the longer the Islamist TV stations stay off the air, the longer the Muslim Brotherhood leadership will be detained and longer it will be until a government of national unity can be formed and fresh elections can be held.

I have not yet been able to track down a written copy of the military's full roadmap but I'm sure you'll appreciate that they are very busy at the moment. Their commitment to a swift return to democratic, civilian rule was demonstrated though by the swearing in today of Adly Mansour as interim President. Although not much is known about Mansour he has served as the deputy head of the Constitutional Court since 1992 so seems to be a career technocrat. He was also appointed as head of the Court by Morsi only on Monday (1/7/13). Therefore he seems to have been chosen for the role of interim President to make sure that Morsi's supporters will have a strong voice in the government of national unity which I expect for balance will now be made up largely of opponents of Morsi. 

International reaction to Morsi's ouster has also started to emerge and is largely muted although sadly some of it seems distinctly negative. The UK's Foreign Secretary William Hague called on all parties to restore the democratic process and stated that the UK does not support military intervention as a way to resolve disputes. This perfectly mirrored the Muslim Brotherhood's own line and was such a clear attempt to incite violence that Hague went on to make it clear he wasn't attempting to incite violence by calling on all sides to avoid violence. US President Obama went even further decrying the removal of Morsi and effectively calling on the Egyptian military to restore him to power. He also specifically warned the military not to arrest members of the Muslim Brotherhood's leadership in what seems to be a clear attempt to allow the Brotherhood to incite and organise violent retaliations. Thankfully the Egyptian military simply ignored him Obama also said that he has ordered officials to review what financial assistance the US gives to Egypt in response to what he descibed as a military coup. This seems like something of an empty threat because Representative Ed Royce who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Comittee which ultimately makes that decision has already made it quite clear that he is more than happy to see Morsi go.

The US and the UK's negative reaction to Morsi's downfall is driven largely by a desire not to offend the Gulf Monarchies especially in oil rich Saudi Arabia and natural gas rich Qatar. Along with the conflict in Syria the Sunni Gulf Monarch's support for Morsi has been an attempt to create a Sunni dominated middle-east. The fact that Morsi was absolutely terrible at his job also helped to reduce support for the Muslim Brotherhood in the Monarch's own nations. With the Saudi and Qatari Irregular Army (SQIA) losing ground daily in Syria and the G8 nations showing no desire to assist them further the ouster of Morsi represents a major set-back in the Gulf Monarchies plans. Therefore Saudi King Abduallah's message of congratulations to Adly Mansour was absolutely dripping with sarcasm and seemed to be an attempt to reassert Saudi control in Egypt. This is something Egypt's new government will be have to be mindful of because in his one year in office Morsi managed to get Egypt into some USD20billion worth of debt to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The African Union has also indicated that it may suspend Egypt in response to what it describes as a military coup. This is simply echoing the US line and is plainly nonsense. Prior to Morsi's ouster some 22 million Egyptians - roughly a quarter of the population - signed a petition calling for him to go. Roughly the same number - some estimates say more - took to the streets for four days calling for him to go. Under the same circumstances in a mature democracy the President would have resigned or at least called a General Election without having to be pushed. So the military may have intervened in Egypt but they were clearly doing so at the behest of the people. That is not a military coup.


(Originally Posted)16:35 on 4/7/13.