More than a year after his Muslim Brotherhood supporters helped steal
the election and four days after millions if not tens of millions took
to the streets Egypt's Mohamed Morsi has still not done the decent thing
and handed Egypt back to its citizens.
The main delay at this point seems to be that the Egyptian military are
still hesitant to do their duty to the nation and forcibly remove Morsi
from power. It is easy to see why they are nervous though. After all
Saudi Arabia, the UK, the US and all the other nations who want to see
Egypt fail have thrown their support behind Morsi. Morsi's own
supporters have taken to the streets with guns, knives and iron bars and
are threatening civil war if they do not get their way. They have even
gone so far as to attack themselves outside the Cairo university in an
attempt to smear the opposition and raise tensions. The main reason that
the military are dragging their feet though is that they don't want the
job of running the country so are worried about what happens after
Morsi steps down.
Here I hope I can be of some help. What I think needs to happen is that
for a short period the military will have to take over the day to day
running of the nation. However their powers will be limited to only what
is strictly necessary such as making sure that public employees get
paid, Egypt adheres to it's international obligations such as the
complex issue of the Sinai border with Israel and Egypt doesn't get
invaded by a foreign power. Although the military will have full power
their duties will be overseen by a civilian, unelected, interim
President. This person needs to be highly intelligent, highly capable
and must represent the views of all Egyptians. Therefore he cannot be a
member of the Muslim Brotherhood. While I've not spoken to him myself
Mohamed El-Baradei's name has frequently been mentioned as a more then
qualified candidate.
While Egypt's military and interim President are trying to keep the
country running the Constitution adopted in December 2012 must be
scrapped because while there are many good elements the majority of it
is useless. In no more than three months after Morsi's departure Egypt
must hold a special election to chose a body to write a new interim
constitution. This document will be very basic covering only the
structure of Egypt's new political system and election rules. The
current bicameral system of the Peoples Assembly and the Shura Council
is actually very good. It's just that the Muslim Brotherhood have packed
both bodies with it's members meaning that they are not independent and
are therefore not doint their job. The interim constitution will also
have to make very basic provisions to allow the military/police to
maintain order.
As this constitution is only a interim document in place until new
elections can be held and a full Parliament can be elected it will not
be put to public referendum and instead will be signed off by the
interim President, the military and the Supreme Court. Most importantly
though rather than being open to everybody the election for the
constitutional panel will be contested by just five parties designated
by the military. This unusual step is necessary because after years of
military dictatorship Egyptians simply don't have the experience of
democracy needed to make it work so need time to practice. This is what
caused the problem at the first attempt at post-revolution democracy
where the majority of Egyptians voted for secular parties but because
there were so many of them the secular vote was split and the minority
who supported the Muslim Brotherhood ended up taken power. Therefore
limiting the number of parties contesting the election for the
constitutional panel will help ensure that panel accurately represents
the views of all sections of Egyptian society and through that help
speed up the process.
Before any of that can happen though Morsi must step down.
(Originally Posted) 17:35 on 3/7/13.
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