Between the crisis over Syria's chemical weapons and the resumption of
Rihanna's Diamonds World Tour I have clearly been too distracted to
write regular updates on the situation in Egypt. The big development
since my last post on the subject though has been the decision to
dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood. This has almost totally crippled the
Brotherhood's ability to organise overtly which coupled with dwindling
support has meant that weekly violent Brotherhood protests against the
government have ceased in any significant form.
This does not mean that the situation in Egypt has suddenly become
stable though. The collapse of law and order on the streets that began
with the fall of Mubarak and continued under Mohamed Morsi's reign
continues to present problems and the practice of using military Courts
to deal with offenders has prompted some muted criticism from
revolutionaries. However until a new constitution can be adopted and a
new government sworn in to begin the process of reforming Egypt's laws
and criminal justice system I don't see what other option there is. The
problems with law and order have been highlighted by the football Ultras
particularly Zamalek's White Knights who having been deprived of
football games to watch have been engaging in protests and occasional
street fighting. Added to the law and order problem relations between
Egypt and some of its Gulf neighbours have become somewhat fraught with
Qatar withdrawing USD2bn of aid that it had promised.
Egypt's biggest problem though remains the fight against Islamist
terrorist groups based mainly in the Sinai peninsula. Although the
Egyptian military has been making great progress tackling these armed
groups there are a large number of disparate groups and post-Libya there
are an awful lot of weapons in the region. As a result gun and grenade
attacks on the security forces remain a daily occurrence in Egypt
prompting some police conscripts to hold street protests demanding
better weapons and protection. A worrying development is that while
these attacks don't appear to become more sophisticated or organised
more and more incidents are starting to occur outside of the Sinai
including a RPG attack today in Cairo and a bombing in Ismailia. In
Cairo in particular the threat of terrorist bombings has reached such
paranoid proportions that even a simple drinks can will prompt a
full-scale alert.
Facing all these pressures and daily attempts on their lives has clearly
left Egypt's security forces feeling a little unloved and
under-appreciated. As a result the military asked people to take to the
streets on Sunday's (6/10/13) 40th anniversary of the October (Yom
Kippur) war with Israel to show their support for the security forces.
Many Egyptians did just that but unfortunately the event offended the
Muslim Brotherhood which called it's supporters onto the streets in an
apparent attempt to attack those supporting the security forces. Within
Cairo the worst of the violence occurred as Brotherhood supporters
attempted to march on supporters of the security forces who were
celebrating in Tahrir Square. The Brotherhood supporters were stopped by
the police on Ramsis street leading to lengthy violent clashes that
engulfed the surrounding area. The current death toll from the Cairo
confrontation stands at 19 but violence from elsewhere in the country
brings that total up to 53 with 27 deaths reported in the Giza suburb.
Along with some 270 injuries nationwide this makes Sunday the bloodiest
day in Egypt since the dark days of August.
Apart from the street violence the anniversary of the October war has
also served as a lightning rod for everybody with a weapon and a grudge
against the security forces. As a result Sunday and carrying on into
today has seen a number of isolated gun, bomb and RPG attacks across
Egypt including the attacks in Cairo and Ismailia that are too numerous
to list individually. One positive of all this is the fact that
opponents of the Egypt government are resorting to using weapons
indicates that they know they lack the popular support to disrupt life
in Egypt through force of numbers so instead are being forced to resort
to violence. The other positive is that this recent wave of violence
appears to be in response to a one off anniversary rather then a new and
co-ordinated campaign.
However if regular violence does once again return to the streets of
Egypt it is important that it doesn't interfere with the transition
process starting with the new constitution which is rumoured to be
published in the coming week. After all nothing will take the wind out
of the Morsi supporters sails like showing them how a democratic
transition should be done.
(Originally Posted) 20:05 on 7/10/13.
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