Mosul Falls, Obama Collapses.

As I think we all know US President Barack Obama withdrew all US troops from Iraq in October 2012 in the hope it would give him a boost in the 2012 Presidential election. Since then the situation in Iraq has steadily deteriorated.

Things really started going bad in January 2014 when a group called the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) returned from fighting in neighbouring Syria and seized Iraq's western Anbar province which includes major cities such as Ramadi and Fallujah. Having repelled attempts by the Iraqi government to re-take Anbar ISIL have, in the past week, expanded with a lightning offensive which has seen them seize much of the Ninevah and Salah al-Din provinces including the strategically vital oil town of Baiji. ISIL are now poised less then 100km from Iraq's capital Baghdad and have indicated that they intend to attack the city in the coming days.

This advance has got a lot of people speculating what ISIL's objective is but that is hardly a secret. In fact their objective is right there in their name. Put simply ISIL want to re-establish an Islamic state from the seventh century know the Levant (al-Sharm in Arabic). The reason why they want to do this is because according to Sunni Islamic prophecy the Levant is where the Messiah will appear atop of a white minaret in order to lead his followers in the ultimate war of good against evil that will ultimately destroy the world. Worryingly according to Shia Islamic prophecy the Levant is also where the false prophet will raise his army before being crushed by the army of true believers.

Despite all these apocalyptic prophecies I think that the Gulf Monarchies who have been funding, equipping and therefore influencing ISIL as they fought in Syria have some more earth bound objectives to this offensive;

Syria: On the 3rd of June (3/6/14) Syria held its Presidential election which was overwhelmingly won by the incumbent Bashar al-Assad. Rather predictably this prompted a storm of criticism from the nations that have been trying to overthrow the Syrian government. However that criticism was severely muted by the growing acceptance that the balance of power in the conflict has shifted so far in favour of the Syrian government that the insurgency simply cannot win. Having been forced to surrender Homs they are now pinned down in the city of Aleppo and a large area in the north-east of the country which is largely desert. This allows the Syrian government to concentrate its forces on retaking Aleppo meaning that this war could soon, finally be over.

Facing defeat the insurgents have been crying out for more and better weapons including American made shoulder launched anti-aircraft missiles (MANPADS). So far rather then simply saying no the US has been stalling on this request so in response ISIL seem to have launched this offensive to raid Iraq's national armoury. With the situation being so fast moving it is hard to say exactly what ISIL have managed to lay their hands on but they have certainly taken possession of a lot of cash, ammunition, tanks, Humvees and other armoured vehicles along with heavy artillery and Scud-type missile systems. This last item is particularly alarming because even if they are not moved across the border into Syria they can be used to mount large scale attacks against Israeli population centres.

Climate Change: This latest ISIL offensive comes right in the middle of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) June meeting. The sheer instability that the offensive creates is likely to disrupt the meeting as everyone tensely waits to see what happens next. However the impact is intended to be far more reaching because one of the key concerns over introducing a replacement to the Kyoto Protocol is whether or not the US will sign up to it. For example Australia has already strongly indicated that if the US doesn't sign up it won't be.

The main issue over whether the US will sign up is whether it will be given permission to do so by the Gulf Monarchies whose economies are entirely dependent on fossil fuels and therefore very opposed to the UNFCCC process. The main way that the Gulf Monarchies have been able to exert control over the US is through oil with the Obama terrified that a 1970's style oil shock will damage the US economy destroying the Democrats election chances. The cruel joke the Gulf Monarchies have been able to play is that they've used this fear to manipulate the US into doing things that make it even more dependent on Gulf oil. So we've seen Iranian oil taken off the market through sanctions, Libyan oil taken off the market through war and the US even seems to be pressing for Russian oil and gas to be taken off the market through sanctions over Ukraine.

Apart from increasing domestic production which is a strategic folly the only pressure valve left open to the US has been Iraqi oil. This ISIL offensive has very much put Iraqi oil production under threat with the global oil price surging over recent days. So by demonstrating that it can take Iraqi oil off the market the Gulf Monarchies are signalling that it has complete control over the US in an attempt to create a sense of inevitability that the UNFCCC process will fail in the hope that people will simply give up.

Afghanistan: While the ISIL's offensive in Iraq has been going on there has also been a dramatic increase in Taliban related violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan - most notably the assassination attempt on  leading Presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah and the attack on Karachi airport. When Afghanistan's next President is announced following the run-off vote the US will look to them to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) which will allow US troops to remain in the country following the planned withdrawal at the end of 2014. By showing that the Taliban are still highly capable of mounting attacks particularly against the Afghan government while highlighting that the US has no will to support the Iraq government the intention is to discourage the Afghans from signing the BSA meaning that the US are completely forced out of the region.

So I said it back in January when the ISIL's first offensive began and I'll say it again now. The US needs to intervene militarily in Iraq if only to send the message that it is prepared to stand by its allies and that it's not prepared to be pushed around. Ideally this would take the form of a short Libya-style air campaign that would take out ISIL's new cache of heavy weapons and blunt their advance to the point that the Iraqis can mount a fight back of their own. However for every day that Obama dithers that task becomes more difficult.

(Originally Posted) 12:05 on 13/6/14 (UK date).