Operation Featherweight: Month 3, Week 1, Day 7.

Armed with little more then AK-47's and sheer force of will the Kurdish defenders of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab on Saturday (11/10/14) managed to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to a complete stop. As a result the strategically important city which sits some 140km (84 miles) from the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa and just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey was relatively quiet on Sunday (12/10/14). With neither side launching any significant attempts to seize new ground the fighting was limited to periodic sniper-fire across the front-lines.

The defenders of Kobane have continued to receive very limited support for the US-led coalition. On Saturday the coalition carried out 4 air-strikes which destroyed 3 ISIL unarmed trucks, 2 small ISIL ground units and what is termed a "staging area." An ISIL command and control point was also damaged. On Sunday the coalition carried out just 3 air-strikes which destroyed an ISIL fighting position and a further staging area. Today the coalition stepped things up a notch carrying out 7 strikes. These destroyed 2 small ISIL ground units and 1 large ground unit along with an ISIL heavy machine gun position and a staging area also being destroyed. Monday's strikes also succeeded in damaging another ISIL staging area and 5 buildings that were under ISIL control.

Despite the increase in air-strikes ISIL fighters in Kobane have today managed to launch a fresh attempt to seize territory in the north of the city in order to close the border crossing which represents the Kurdish defenders only link with the outside world. As I write is appears that the Kurds have succeeded in resisting that attack but not before they were subjected to several large ISIL suicide attacks. There are also unconfirmed reports starting to emerge that as part of that assault ISIL deployed chemical weapons - specifically a blistering agent similar to Mustard Gas.

Apart from highlighting the international communities apparently selective outrage at the use of chemical weapons today's fresh fighting highlights the fundamental problem faced by the Kurds as they try to defend Kobane. As the coalition is still apparently refusing to mount round the clock, 24 hour patrols around the city in order to cut ISIL fighters within the city off from their support networks outside the city ISIL fighters can bring in supplies and fresh fighters almost at will. In contrast the Kurds are almost completely isolated and have not been re-supplied with food, ammunition or medical supplies in nearly a week and there is no sign that fresh supplies will ever arrive. So while the Kurds will fight to every last bullet there will come a point when that last bullet has been fired and there will be nothing left but death.

The perilous situation that the Kurds find themselves in has prompted the start of a campaign for the coalition to make air-drops to re-supply Kobane's defenders in the same way that did on Sinjar mountain. This included the Twitter hashtag #Airdrop2Kobane and a petition on the US government's White House website calling for the US to arm the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG).

However it must be said that Sinjar type air-drops are not really appropriate for Kobane. Air-drops of this nature involve a large aircraft such as a C130 Hercules flying over an area and simply dumping pallets each weighing several tonnes onto that area. In rural areas such as Mount Sinjar a high proportion of the supplies get destroyed on impact and in an urban area like Kobane they will also destroy any buildings or people they land on making it not all that different from an air-strike. This is a particular problem when you are dropping things like ammunition which can explode on impact. There is also a substantial risk that these supplies will be dropped in the wrong areas and end up in the hands of ISIL. It may be possible to use helicopters to make more targeted air-drops but these will be much smaller and there is a very real risk that the helicopters could be shot down by ISIL.

Fortunately though there is no need to carry out air-drops to re-supply Kobane's Kurdish defenders because Kobane is not totally encircled by ISIL and there is a land corridor leading to the Turkish border on which supplies can be brought in by road. The problem is that even as Kurds fight and die in Kobane to keep the corridor open it is being blocked at the Turkish border by the Turkish government. Therefore there needs to be widespread and extensive pressure on Turkey to immediately open that border and allow Kobane to be re-supplied. After all Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself admits (when lecturing Israel) that to block the flow of supplies to people under attack is to assist in genocide.

Under pressure from journalists whilst in Egypt US Secretary of State John Kerry again tried to dismiss Kobane's plight by saying that saving the city it not a strategic objective of the coalition which is focused on protecting Iraq. I think that was a mistake firstly because if the coalition's objective is not to prevent ISIL from seizing fresh territory and prevent them from carrying out further crimes against humanity then it has no purpose and should be brought to an end. Mainly though it was a mistake because it switches focus to Iraq where things are going just as badly for the coalition.

US President Barack Obama's Special Envoy for the fight against ISIL is retired General John Allen who is currently in Iraq's capital Baghdad. He has been forced to admit that his visit has been spoiled somewhat because he cannot ignore the fact that he can see ISIL shelling Baghdad International Airport from their positions less the 8km (4.8 miles) away. Although ISIL are not yet in a position to mount an assault on Baghdad they continue to strengthen their position by forcing the Iraq army from positions around the town of Hit. The town of Hit sits in the Euphrates River basin just 55km (33 miles) to the north-east of Ramadi which in turn is just 50km (30 miles) along the Euphrates from Fallujah. Fallujah itself sits on the Euphrates just 60km (26 miles) west of Baghdad.

Looking for an excuse as to why more then two months of bombing has seemingly had no effect of weakening ISIL the US-led coalition will no doubt attempt to blame these latest losses on the Iraqi army being afraid to fight ISIL. The reality though is that - as you may remember - on September 16th (16/9/14) the Iraqi army mounted an ambitious operation to liberate both Fallujah and Ramadi while strengthening their hold of Haditha with a view to moving on to liberate Hit. Within 7 days though the US-led coalition completely lost interest in this operation and starting randomly bombing targets in Syria instead. As a result the operation ground to a halt and the Iraqi army was left over-stretched causing its current losses. Therefore it seems sensible for the Iraqi army to withdraw and consolidate itself around Baghdad until the coalition is prepared to mount a credible operation to defeat ISIL.

The key component of such an operate would be the coalition starting to mount "Operation Northern Watch" style armed air patrols over the front-lines in order to stop ISIL from advancing. Ideally to do this the coalition would operate the majority of its aircraft out of the United States Air Force (USAF) base at Incrlik in Turkey although they could also operate from Royal Air Force (RAF) base Akrotiri in Cyprus. The main reason that this has yet to happen is because Turkish President Erdogan is refusing to allow it to happen. This refusal is deeply problematic for a number of reasons;

Although Turkey also has an airbase there USAF Incirlik is an American airbase. While I don't have a copy of the agreement in front of me it is unlikely that it is within Turkey's power to refuse the US and it's allies to operate from what is considered US sovereign territory rather like an Embassy.

The reason why USAF Incirlik was built is because Turkey is part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Although choosing to join NATO is voluntarily once a nation has joined it is not allowed to opt out of the alliances operations. As a result if a military resource of a NATO member is needed for an operation is used in that operation. If Turkey is not happy with this arrangement and continues to refuse use of Incirlik the other members of NATO will have to seriously consider whether Turkey can remain as a member or whether its NATO membership should be immediately suspended.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has passed resolution 2170 (2014) which condemns ISIL and calls on every member state to do everything in their power to defeat ISIL. If Turkey continues to refuse the use of Incirlik it is clearly not doing everything in its power to defeat ISIL putting it in violation of resolution 2170. As such the UNSC will have to look at sanctioning Turkey for its violation of resolution 2170 possibly by adding Erdogan himself to a list of individuals placed under economic sanctions and travel bans.

Finally what is going on in Kobane and all other areas under ISIL control constitutes multiple crimes against humanity. By actively blocking efforts to prevent those crimes being committed Turkey is acting as an accessory to those crimes. As such Turkey should immediately be referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Despite all of that significant leverage over Turkey Obama's only efforts so far to persuade Erdogan to open Incirlik have been to give Erdogan everything he wants including the extermination of Kobane's Kurds and a role in arming and training Arab opponents to the Syrian government.

The most forceful thing that Obama seems prepared to do is put around a rumour that Turkey had given permission for Incirlik to be used when they hadn't. The Turks had no problem publicly denying that rumour.

(Originally Posted) 20:20 on 13/10/14 (UK date).