As I was writing yesterday's post the Kurdish People's Protection Units
(YPG) had just succeeded in repelling a fresh attempt by the Islamic
State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) to seize the northern border
crossing that provides the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab with its only link
to the outside world. As a result it looked as though this
strategically important city which sits 140km (84 miles) from the ISIL
stronghold of Raqqa and just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border from
Turkey would stay out of ISIL hands for one more day.
However just as I was going be bed last night rumours were starting to
emerge that ISIL had dispatched a senior commander along with 100
fighters who are specially trained and equipped to fight at night to
Kobane in order to launch a fresh attempt to seize the northern border
crossing. Although that rumour has not been confirmed a convoy of ISIL
fighters did attempt to advance on the border crossing from the east
only to be ambushed by YPG fighters who destroyed the convoy killing at
least 25 ISIL fighters. Amongst the dead is said to be Saddam Jamal - a
senior "Emir" within ISIL who is perhaps better known to the outside
world as commander of the Syrian Military Council's (SMC) eastern
division which is the "moderate opposition" that everybody keeps
referring to.
It seems that the YPG were not content to sit back and simply repel ISIL
attacks and instead launched a counter-offensive of their own. With
limited support from the US-led coalition (I'm still waiting for details
of air-strikes) the YPG succeeded in liberating the village of Tall
Shair and the hill it stands upon which has been under ISIL control
since October 3rd (3/10/14). This is a significant victory for the Kurds
because being 4km (2.4 miles) from Kobane the re-capture of the hill
puts the west of the city beyond the range of ISIL tank fire. Also by
putting a huge hill between Kobane and ISIL positions it makes it
extremely difficult for ISIL to fire artillery into the city. Finally it
opens up a stretch of open ground which can be used as a drop-zone if
Turkey continues to block supplies from reaching Kobane forcing the
coalition to conduct air-drops.
Of course before all this happened ISIL announced that they had seized
not only the northern border crossing but also the entire city and
declared victory over the Kurds. This really serves to underline first
just how delusional ISIL actually are and just how important Kobane is
to them.
When I compare ISIL to Nazi Germany it is not a casual comparison
because both the Nazi Reich and ISIL seem to have this constant need to
continue expanding and destroying in order sustain their existence. For
example Hitler came to power in 1933 and spent 3 years consolidating the
Reich in Germany before moving on to occupy the Rhineland in 1936. In
1938 the Nazis invaded Austria and then made a quick march across
western Europe. In 1940 they were stopped at the English Channel so
immediately started pressing eastwards towards the Soviet Union. In 1942
the were stopped at Stalingrad prompting them to focus instead on the
extermination of the Jews. This wasn't enough to sustain the Reich and
eventually it collapsed in on itself. ISIL seem to have the same thirst
for destruction so if they can be stopped at Kobane and stopped at Hit
in Iraq it is likely that they will then collapse very rapidly.
Despite the success at Tall Shair the battle for Kobane is still far
from won because ISIL can still attack from the east and the south. Also
by re-claiming the hill the Kurds have actually put extra pressure on
themselves because they now not only have to defend the city but the
hill and the space between the hill and the west of Kobane.
Turkey of course is continuing to refuse to allow support such as
fighters and supplies to cross its border to provide relief to Kobane.
It has also emerged that on Sunday (12/10/14) Turkey went much further
then simply trying to starve Kobane into defeat by bombing Kurdish
positions on the border with Iraq. This means that Turkey is now no
longer in violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution
2170 (2014) by simply failing to do everything in it's power by
obstructing the coalition's use of Incirlk airbase. Instead Turkey is
now actively carrying out military operations in support of ISIL.
On Thursday (16/10/14) Turkey hopes to be elected on to the UNSC. Along
with all the examples I noted yesterday this is exactly the sort of
thing that can be blocked if Turkey continues to refuse to assist the
US-led coalition. In fact Thursday's vote may have to be postponed while
the current members of the UNSC meet to decide Turkey's punishment for
its flagrant violation of resolution 2170.
16:10 on 14/10/14 (UK date).
Edited at around 18:50 on 14/10/14 (UK date) to add;
US Central Command (CENTCOM) have got around to
publishing details of the air-strikes they carried out in and around
Kobane overnight. Basically they carried out 21 strikes - the equivalent
of a single B-1 Lancer operating at 25% of capacity - against pretty
much ever ISIL target they had identified. The destruction of 3 ISIL
compounds, 7 troops staging areas and a single ISIL ammunition store
were amongst the highlights.
The fact that this significant increase in the volume of strikes
occurred at the same time as the YPG were able to seize Tall Shair hill
has led to speculation that the US-led coalition is now operating
alongside the Kurds. Sadly I don't think this is the case nor do I think
this was the US sending a strong message to Turkey over its bombing of
Kurdish positions on Sunday. Instead the sad fact of the matter is that
US President Obama's only objective for this operation remains to avoid
negative press coverage ahead of the US mid-term elections. With the
Twitter hashtag #Airdrops2Kobane trending most of Sunday and the Obama's
leadership receiving negative reviews (on this blog at least) on Monday
I think that Monday night's small increase in air-strikes was Obama
trying to show that he is taking the situation seriously.
The Kurds then simply took advantage because fighting for their lives they don't any other choice.
(Originally Posted on 14/10/14 - UK date).
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