Ukraine on a Precipice.

Over recent weeks people in the Donbass (Kharkiv, Donestk, Luhansk) region of eastern Ukraine have been planning on holding a referendum on breaking away from the central government in Kiev with next Sunday (11/5/14) set as a provisional date. If this referendum were to take place and the yes campaign were to win it would render the general election that the Kiev government have proposed for May 25 (25/5/14) null and void. So under pressure from the US on Friday (2/5/14) the Kiev government launched a large military offensive in the east in order to crush the separatists and prevent this referendum from taking place.

That offensive focused primarily on Kramatorsk and Slaviansk in Donetsk started badly with the separatists immediately shooting down two Ukrainian Mi-24 attack helicopters killing both crew members on one helicopter and one crew member on the other. The remaining crew member was wounded and captured. A third Mi-8 was also hit and badly damaged but was able to return to base. At least one of those helicopters was shot down using an advanced ground-based air defence system similar to the British made Rapier system. The US obviously leapt on the use of such an advanced weapons system as 'evidence' that Russia has been behind the unrest.

However it is far more likely to indicate that the separatists simply obtained the weapons from the vast underground weapons store in Horlivka that has been under their control for weeks. Alternatively members of Ukraine's military have simply defected because it was military and police units from the Donbass region that were drafted in to face the militants in Independence Square. Further discrediting the US' claims that the anti-Kiev militias are in fact Russian special forces for the most part these militia groups have largely fled when faced with the more elite units of pro-Kiev troops. However as I write the offensive seems to have made little progress in either Kramatorsk or Slaviansk.

One of the main things that has slowed down Kiev's operation and further discredited the claim that Donbass separatists are merely Russian infiltrators is that large numbers of unarmed local residents have taken to the streets to protest the presence of pro-Kiev troops and block their advance. This has led to at least one incident in which a civilian was crushed after being run-over by a tank.

By far the most alarming development of the day though took place not in the Donbass region but in the western city of Odessa which is right on the border with Moldova. Obviously this highlights that opposition to Kiev is not limited to a few provinces in the east of Ukraine. In fact Kiev actually has limited support within both industrial heartland of Donbass and the the Black Sea port cities across the entire south of Ukraine. As a result the Kiev government only really represents half a dozen provinces in the west that have traditionally always enjoyed closer links to Poland then Ukraine.

Despite highlighting the lack of support for Kiev Friday's events in Odessa were particularly sickening. Essentially since the overthrow of the Yanukoyvch government anti-Kiev residents set up a small but permanent protest camp in the centre of the city to peacefully highlight that they do not agree with what is going on. As news of the offensive spread on Friday numbers at this protest camp steadily grew. In the evening members of Right Sector who were responsible for the recent attack against Odessa's Holocaust memorial and who should have been disbanded under the Geneva agreement teamed up with local football Ultras to attack this protest camp. In response to that attack the anti-Kiev protesters were forced to seek refuge in the local trade union headquarters where they were trapped inside. Right Sector then proceeded to set fire to the building and blocked attempts by the fire service and police to put out the fire. By dawn 42 of the anti-Kiev protesters inside the building had been killed.

The most worrying element is that that majority had not been burned to death or killed by smoke inhalation but had been shot by Right Sector as they tried to escape. According to some reports every time someone was shot or fell from the buildings windows a loud cheer went up from the mob outside.

This incident in Odessa is particularly alarming because the level of brutality means that it is likely to act to further polarise Ukraine with the overwhelming majority who have no strong feelings either way being forced to either side with Kiev of side with Donbass. This places Ukraine on the brink of a civil war.

Fortunately though it is not to late for the nation to step back from the edge with Kiev cancelling their offensive and allowing the referendum to take place while Donbass allows the election to take place and the nation continues on the understanding that its political future is far from resolved. Alternatively both sides could simply return to the European Union (EU) brokered transition road-map.

(Originally Posted) 12:50 on 4/5/14 (UK date).