Operation Featherweight: Month 4, Week 2, Day 3.

The Battle of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab is now in its 63rd day. Over the past several days the fighting has once again settled into an attrition phase with the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) trying to consolidate their recent gains while the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) launched wave after wave of counter attack to re-gain territory they have lost.

In the east of the city the majority of the fighting has been focused on the Azadi (Freedom) Square and the Reshad Mosque areas. Despite almost two days of near continuous fighting it seems that no territory has been lost or gained by either side although the YPG have captured quantities of weapons and ammunition from ISIL and killed at least 18 ISIL fighters including 1 senior commander. In the south of the city there have been similar clashes although these seem to have been almost completely continuous in nature making it hard to assess exact details of what has taken place. However it is becoming clear that the YPG have not lost any significant territory.

On the outskirts of Kobane the YPG have pushed out west beyond Tall Shair hill and into the villages of Minaz and Gire Iza. This increases the buffer between Kobane and ISIL forces on the western front to around 8km (4.8 miles) substantially loosening ISIL's siege of the city. To the south-east the YPG have continued to expand and then consolidate their hold on the main road between Kobane and the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa - 140km (84 miles) to the south-east - at the village of Helinj. This of course cuts ISIL's main supply line into Kobane however the YPG have not yet been able to fully re-capture Mishtenur hill which would completely trap ISIL in the south of Kobane. This of course puts the YPG fighters in Helinj in a perilous position holding out between two large groups of ISIL fighters.

Across all fronts the YPG have lost 8 fighters in the last two days. Although they have been able to capture weapons and ammunition from ISIL it has been almost two full weeks since YPG units in Kobane were fully re-supplied and the fighting has once again moved into an attrition phase. Therefore it is becoming increasingly urgent that Kobane is soon re-supplied again - ideally by road from Turkey - or all the gains that have been made in the past two weeks risk being overturned.

ISIL have also been suffering substantial set-backs in Iraq. On Friday (14/11/14) the Iraqi government announced that it had not only liberated the town of Beiji which sits around 180km (105 miles) north of Iraq's capital Baghdad but also broken the siege of the large oil refinery that sits just outside Beiji. This is certainly more truth then lie. On Wednesday (12/11/14) the Iraq Army backed by Shia militiamen had liberated around 60% of Beiji including the critical central district. Throughout Thursday they pushed directly north out of the town liberating around a further 20% of the city in the process. From Beiji's northern border the Iraqi forces then quickly moved directly to the oil refinery which is around 5km (3 miles) to the north thus breaking the ISIL siege of the refinery which has been going on since June.

As a result the Beiji refinery which produces around 25% of Iraq's oil products including gasoline is close to being back in production. However the Iraqis still need to clear ISIL from the areas in Beiji town they still hold along with the areas to the north, east and west of the refinery alongside making the whole area safe from roadside bombs and booby traps. While I appreciate the need to for good news the speed at which the Iraqis announced that Beiji had been totally liberated is unlikely to win them any friends. That's because it gives the impression that they don't quite understand the scale of the task ahead of them and that doesn't inspire confidence in them as a fighting force.

Any concerns about the Iraqis fighting abilities that the premature announcement of victory at Beiji may have caused were quickly dispelled on Saturday (15/11/14) when they also re-captured the Adhaim Dam from ISIL. Sitting around 100km (60 miles) north of Baghdad and around 115km (70 miles) south-east of Beiji the Adhaim Dam is considered Iraq's third largest behind Mosul and Haditha Dams and is primarily used for irrigation of vital farmland in the surrounding area. As with Iraq's other dams it sits in front of a large reservoir which if the dam was destroyed could be used as a tsunami-style weapon on mass destruction.

Despite the Iraqis and the Syrian Kurds significant gains against ISIL the US-led coalition has seemed far more interested in carrying out symbolic, showpiece bombing rather then offering support to those fighting ISIL.

On Friday the US announced that it had again carried out air-strikes against the mythical "Khorasan Group." As I explain every time they're mentioned the Khorasan Group are more of a loose assembly of highly trained, core Al-Qaeda fighters rather then an actual group. Their name which was assigned by US intelligence comes from a large province in north-eastern Iran. As such they exist more as a euphemism for Iran or more generally Shia Muslims rather then an actual enemy. Unfortunately I've not been able to find out which Syrian group the US actually bombed in the attack but as the strikes occurred in Aleppo City it seems that the location of the attack was more important then the target itself.

Located 50km (30 miles) east of Syria's western border with Turkey Aleppo City sits around 100km (60 miles) west of the ISIL stronghold of Raqqa and around 450km (270 miles) north of Syria's capital Damascus. The capital of Aleppo province Aleppo City provides something of a neat microcosm of the entire Syria conflict. The majority of the city (65-70%) is controlled by the Syrian government while a further 20-25% is controlled by the Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF). The remaining 5-10% of the city is in the hands of other rebel groups in either the Free Syrian Army (FSA) or the Islamic Front (IF) groupings. However recently FSA groups in the area such as the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF) and Harakat Hazm have recently switched their allegiance to ANF. The area outside of Aleppo City is under ISIL control.

Ever since Hezbollah joined the fight in Syria at the request of the Syrian government back in April 2013 all the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups have slowly and steadily been losing territory to the Syrian government. This is a large part of the reason why ISIL turned tail and headed off into Iraq in late 2013. As the Syrian government has been focusing its efforts on reclaiming territory along Syria's western side Aleppo City has recently become the next city on their list and they have steadily been re-capturing it. However as the insurgent groups grip on reality has always been a bit tenuous they have decided that it is the US-led coalition's air-strikes against ISIL that is causing the Syrian government to gain ground in Aleppo City. As such the United Nations Special Envoy on Syria - Staffan de Mistura - has been proposing a freeze on the fighting in Aleppo City. Primarily this is an effort to stop the insurgent groups being defeated but it is being presented as a way to seperate the fight against ISIL from the wider conflict in Syria.

Therefore the real reason behind the attack in Aleppo was US President Obama making concessions to the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups and Turkey by indicating that he is far more interested in starting an illegal war against the Syrian government and killing as many Shias as possible rather then defeating ISIL. The US made a further concession on Saturday when it announced that it is going to pay for 2000 fighters from Sunni-Arab insurgent groups to be trained in Turkey. As both the SRF and Harakat Hazm were trained and supplied with US weapons in Turkey before defecting to Al Qaeda and taking that US paid for training and weapons with them this doesn't strike me as the brightest idea the US has ever had.

Meanwhile Turkey is still refusing the allow the coalition to use USAF base Incirlik or move supplies to Kobane through Turkish territory. Also on Friday Turkey announced that 12 people who had been arrested for assaulting 2 US Navy sailors in Istanbul on Wednesday (12/11/14) were to be released without charge, bail or even questioning. This represents a very clear endorsement by the Turkish government of assaults on US service personnel and seems to confirm that the attacks themselves were planned in advance by the Turkish government.

Putting aside concerns over whether the Sunni-Arab insurgent groups can be trusted and the fact that making concessions to Turkey under these circumstances makes the US look extremely weak Saturday provided further evidence that this plan simply will not work when Syrian civilians rose up against the local Sunni-Arab insurgent group in Douma. What's been happening in this suburb around 15km (9 miles) to the north-east of Damascus is your pretty standard failed state gangsterism. Basically the Army of Islam who are part of the IF grouping had been exploiting food shortages to drive up prices and line their own pockets. Amid complaints from local residents the Army of Islam crucified a man who had led the complaints in the main square. This attempt to terrorise the local population into silence failed and on Saturday local residents attempted to storm the Army of Islam's food stores. The Army of Islam opened fire on them to stop them.

This morning ISIL released another of their propaganda videos. Lasting around 15 minutes this was divided into three main sections. The opening section gives a brief history of the group in which a clear effort was made to emphasise that it was formed to kill US troops in Iraq but was later forced to fight against the Syria's Shia led government (which is considered infidels) in order to avoid divisions with other Sunni-Arab insurgent groups that were fighting the Syrian government. This utterly destroys Obama's repeated claims that ISIL was formed in response to the actions of the Syrian government. It also almost seems to be celebrating Obama's promise to send more US troops to Iraq because ISIL obviously intends to kill them.

The second section of the video shows the beheading of 18 Syrian government soldiers and airmen. The video is keen to emphasise that they are members of the Shia Alawite sect and therefore considered infidels. This section seems primarily to terrify ISIL opponents but also reassure the other Sunni-Arab insurgents that ISIL is still committed to fighting Syria's infidel government and killing as many Shias as possible. The other thing I found interesting about this section is that it actually shows the beheadings. Hacking somebody's head off with a bayonet is really quite difficult especially when you have to cut through the spinal cord. Therefore previous beheading videos have actually only shown the victim's throat being cut before an edit and then footage of the decapitated corpse. This has led to ISIL supporters on the Internet and other conspiracy theorists to claim that the videos have actually been faked to provide a justification for fighting ISIL. So by actually showing the beheadings this time ISIL seem to be trying to convince their own supporters that yes they do indeed cut people's heads off.

The final section features audio recordings of different Islamist groups in places like Libya, Algeria and Yemen pledging allegiance to ISIL. It also features audio recordings of ISIL's self-styled Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi accepting those pledges of allegiance and welcoming the new members. Crucially this section includes the pledge by Ansar Beit al-Maqdis - an Egyptian group based in the Sinai. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis only pledged allegiance to ISIL last Monday (10/11/14) several days after al-Baghdadi was injured in an air-strike near Mosul in Iraq. Therefore this is intended to prove that al-Baghdadi was not killed or even seriously wounded in the US attack.

Really driving home that point the video ends with British born ISIL "executioner-in-chief" who is known as "Jihadi John" standing with the decapitated head of former US Army Ranger Peter Kassig at his feet. This is intended to be a big "F*ck You!" to America over the Mosul air-strike by showing that it was not a success and ISIL are still most certainly in business. It actually appears as though prior to the release of the video ISIL put around a false rumour that Jihadi John had also been injured in the strike in order to maximise the impact of his shock return. Finally although he was in Syria as an aid worker and converted to ISIL's branch of Islam whilst in captivity the video ignores all that and instead focuses on the fact that Kassig served with the "armies of the cross" (US Army) in Iraq.

That struck me as ISIL practically demanding that Obama sends more US troops to Iraq for ISIL to kill. I however think it should make Obama think long and hard about the way he is prepared to sacrifice American lives for political convenience.

(Originally Posted) 17:40 on 16/11/14 (UK date)

Operation Featherweight: Month 3, Week 4, Day 6.

Late on Friday (31/10/14) evening Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga entered the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab equipped with medium and heavy weapons along with other supplies. Their mission was to link up with the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) who have been defending this strategically important city from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) for the past 7 weeks.

This newly bolstered YPG force quickly made its presence felt launching an attack against ISIL positions in the north-east of the city on Saturday (1/11/14) evening. This attack was successful with several ISIL positions being over-run, weapons and ammunition being captured and 14 ISIL fighters being killed. Sadly ISIL didn't take this lying down and on Sunday (2/11/14) launched a counter-offensive in a effort to recover the territory they had lost the previous day. After almost a day of intense fighting ISIL were eventually beaten back allowing the YPG to secure their gains whilst killing 15 ISIL fighters including 3 senior commanders who are known as Emirs.

Despite reports that a group of ISIL fighters in their stronghold of Raqqa - some 140km (84 miles) to the south-east of Kobane - were executed for mutiny after being told they were being sent to Kobane it seems clear that ISIL still intends to fight for Kobane. On Saturday they launched a fresh attempt to seize the eastern governance district from the YPG. However after a night of heavy fighting the YPG were able to resist this fresh assault killing 14 ISIL fighters in the process. ISIL's main focus in Kobane though has been a massive attack focused on the south of the city. This offensive began on Saturday evening and heavy fighting raged until Sunday afternoon. During this time 31 ISIL fighters were killed including 5 who were in an armoured vehicle that the YPG ambushed and destroyed. The fighting in the southern section also saw 2 members of the YPG being killed - the Kurds only fatalities of the weekend.

In even better news for Kobane's Kurdish defenders there have today been reports - unconfirmed at this stage - that the logistics unit that brought the Peshmerga to Suruc in Turkey on Thursday (30/10/14) have since returned to Arbil in Iraq where they have simply loaded up their trucks again and are heading back to Suruc. Hopefully Turkey will not only give permission for but also actively support this fresh convoy because if Kobane is to be defended then supply convoys between Arbil and Kobane need to become a regular occurrence until ISIL have been defeated.

Away from Kobane the US-led coalition's strategy in Syria suffered another major set-back today when fighters from the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front (ANF) seized Bab al-Hawa from the Free Syrian Army (FSA). A major border crossing with Turkey Bab al-Hawa is around 45km (27 miles) west of Aleppo city and around 50km (30 miles) to the north of Jabal al-Zawiya which ANF seized from the FSA on Saturday. However I am less concerned with ANF taking over Bab al-Hawa then ISIL potentially taking over Kobane for a host of reasons. The main one of these is that Turkey seems far closer to ISIL then it is to ANF meaning that it is less likely to assist them in their smuggling operations. Also being a far less brutal group than ISIL ANF went through a very deep split with ISIL and have actively fought them in the past. As such while I wouldn't advise that the coalition allies itself with ANF provided ANF continue to fight ISIL I'm not sure their destruction should be considered a priority.

The real damage to the US-led coalition's strategy that was done at Bab al-Hawa was that the FSA faction that was defending it was Harakat Hazm. As with the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF) at Jabal al-Zawiya Harakat Hazm were one of the FSA factions that the US has been training and equipping with advanced weapons after what we were assured was careful vetting and monitoring. As with the SRF at Jabal al-Zawiya it appears that Harakat Hazm have also now defected to ANF taking their advanced weapons including MILAN-type TOW anti-tank missiles and possibly Stinger-type anti-aircraft missiles with them.

If that wasn't problem enough for the coalition then today ISIL succeeded in seizing the Jahar gas field in central Idlib province from Syrian government forces. This adds to the Shaer gas field that ISIL captured on Thursday. ISIL now control so many oil and natural gas fields across Iraq and Syria that they have begun to advertise for qualified professionals to help them run them. As US President Obama's strategy - if you can call it that - to defeat ISIL seems centred entirely of cutting of their sources of finance from oil and gas the fact that ISIL are increasing the amount of oil and gas under their control is utterly humiliating.

(Originally Posted) 19:25 on 3/11/14 (UK date).

Operation Featherweight: Month 3, Week 4, Day 4.

Friday (31/10/14) was a comparatively quiet day in the city of Kobane/Ayn al-Arab which sits just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey.

In the morning there was just occasional shelling by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In the afternoon ISIL carried out two harassment type attacks in the east of the city which were quickly repelled by the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) who are defending Kobane. During these exchanges 21 ISIL fighters were killed and others were forced to retreat leaving behind weapons and ammunition that were seized by the YPG. In the evening ISIL launched another attack in the south of the city. Details of that fighting are yet to emerge but it is apparent that ISIL have failed to make any significant gains.

Some two weeks ago somebody tried to explain to me that the reason why neither side were making significant gains in the battle for Kobane anymore is that after more then a month of fighting both sides were bled white and exhausted like boxers in the 12th round of a bruising contest. The battle has now entered its 48th day. However I think the reason why Friday was so quiet was because everybody was waiting to see if, how and when the 2 platoons of Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters would enter Kobane from Suruc in Turkey where they've been waiting since Wednesday (29/10/14).

While everybody was waiting to see how the Peshmerga was going to enter I started thinking about the best way for them to go about it. It is clear that the Peshmerga have brought with them a number of pieces of field artillery. As the name suggests these are designed to be used in wide, open areas such as fields rather then in the tight confines of urban warfare. They work by firing up into the air and then relying on gravity to bring the shell down on a target several kilometres away. In fact the term "point blank range" doesn't refer to distance but the zero degree of elevation below which artillery cannot be used if indeed it can achieve point blank.

So this type of weapon will be incredibly useful in the later stages of the battle when it comes to chasing ISIL away from Kobane and setting up a defensive perimeter to stop them from returning. However in this immediate stage where the YPG are trying to stop ISIL from advancing within the city they are less useful. That is because while they can't really be used as weapons at such close range the YPG still has to find places to store them and protect them in order to stop them from falling into ISIL's hands. Therefore the most logical thing for the Peshmerga to have done would be to set up a supply depot in Suruc and then bring things into Kobane in small, daily deliveries as and when they are required.

Obviously though that isn't possible because Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still making it clear that the Peshmerga are less then welcome in Suruc. In fact yesterday a spokesman for Iraq's Kurds openly accused Erdogan of both slowing down the supply convoy's journey across Turkey and delaying the Peshmerga's crossing from Suruc into Kobane in the hope that it would give ISIL just enough time to over-run the city. Erdogan himself slipped up very badly during a State visit to France yesterday when he claimed in a speech that there were "No people left in Kobane" which seems to make it clear that he views the Kurds as being somehow less then human.

Due to Turkey's ongoing hostility the Peshmerga were forced to cross into Kobane all at once last night. They were supported in this effort by up to 10 air-strikes by the US-led coalition that suppressed ISIL's firing positions meaning that its fighters were not able to attack the convoy as it made it's way into the city. We are now waiting for the Peshmerga to find their feet within Kobane and to find out how ISIL will respond to this significant strengthening of Kobane's defences. Apparently the so-called "Media Hill" which sits just on the Turkish border is even more packed with spectators then usual.

Of course when President Erdogan is not flying around in his lavish new Presidential plane, planning his lavish new Presidential Palace or freeing ISIL fighters like Basil Hassan from prison so they can plot terror attacks in European nations such as Denmark he is demanding to know why people are focusing on Kobane rather then what is going on elsewhere in Syria. Today he may be hoping that everybody focuses entirely on Kobane rather then events elsewhere in Syria.

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) have today confirmed that they have lost control of the area around Jabal al-Zawiya to the Al Qaeda affiliated Al Nusra Front (ANF) following several days of fighting. Sitting some 35km (21 miles) south of Idlib and 90km (54 miles) south-west of Aleppo, the capital of Idlib province, Jabal al-Zawiya represented the FSA's last foothold in northern Syria. Although the position was encircled by ANF, ISIL and the Syrian government its loss means that Erdogan nor anyone else is any longer able to argue that the FSA can be trained and equipped to defeat ISIL and ANF in Syria.

As such it means that the Kurds are now not only the most viable and desirable candidates for coalition support they are in fact now the only candidates.

17:05 on 1/11/14 (UK date).

Edited at around 12:35 on 2/11/14 (UK date) to add;

Rather proving why I shouldn't work on Saturday's the above contains a glaring error. Aleppo city is the capital of Aleppo province while the capital of Idlib province is Idlib city. They are though still located around 55km (33 miles) away from each other.

On the topic of huge mistakes more details have begun to emerge of the FSA's defeat at Jabal al-Zawiya. Describing the FSA as an "Army" is something of a huge exaggeration. The name was specifically chosen to make the FSA sound a lot more organised and competent then they actually are. In reality the FSA is just a patchwork of Libya-style militia groups each with their own leaders and agendas. The main FSA group at Jabal al-Zawiya were the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF).

The SRF are important because they are one of the moderate groups that the US decided to directly train and arm in September 2014 after what we were assured was careful vetting and monitoring. A key factor in the FSA's collapse at Jabal al-Zawiya was the SFR's decision to surrender and defect en masse to the Al Qaeda affiliate ANF. They took with them a large number of US supplied weapons including US made MILAN-style TOW advanced anti-tank missiles and possibly Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

(Originally Posted on 1/11/14 - UK date).