Over the past several days the Battle of Kobane/Ay al-Arab has continued
just 1km (0.6 miles) from Syria's border with Turkey. On what is now
the 56th day of this battle if there is any momentum it is with the
Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG) who have been defending the city
from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The YPG have been focusing their efforts on pushing ISIL fighters from
positions in the east of the city particularly around Freedom Square and
the Governance district. Here they have steadily been pushing ISIL back
street-by-street and house-by-house. On Saturday (8/11/14) the YPG
succeeded in liberating the area around the Reshad Mosque although sadly
as they were retreating ISIL demolished the Mosque in what seems little
more then an exercise in spite. During this fighting large amounts of
weapons and ammunition have been captured from ISIL and at least 41 ISIL
fighters have been killed. The YPG also succeeded in capturing alive
Abdul-Hadi Obaid - a Saudi national who is believed to be the overall
ISIL commander (Emir) in charge of the operation to capture Kobane.
In contrast ISIL seem to have been focusing on the western and in
particular the southern portion of the city launching wave after wave of
attacks in an effort to seize fresh territory. Fortunately the YPG have
been able to repel all of these attacks killing at least 12 ISIL
fighters in the process.
Despite these significant victories the progress in fully liberating
Kobane remains painfully slow and the military balance between the YPG
and ISIL remains precarious.
Sadly there is no sign that this balance will be dramatically tipped in
the YPG's favour by the establishment of a supply corridor through
Turkey. If anything following the US' rather strange air-strikes against
the Free Men of the Levant (FML) group in Bab al-Hawa - around 45km (27
miles) west of Aleppo city on the border with Turkey - on Thursday
(6/11/14) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have been
emboldened in his commitment to let Kobane fall.
Within hours of the strikes against FML Turkey moved to further seal the
border between Kobane and Turkey. Initially Turkish troops opened fire
on YPG units within Kobane effectively declaring war on Syria. Then when
Kurdish protesters on the Turkish side of the border reacted angrily to
this Turkish troops fired tear gas and then live ammunition into the
crowds killing at least one women - 28 year old Kader Ortakaya, a
Turkish citizen of Kurdish descent.
With Turkey renewing its commitment to killing Kurds and seeming to join
the fight on ISIL's behalf on Friday (7/11/14) ISIL escalated its
attempts to kill Kurdish civilians by shelling a group of refugees who
have become trapped between Kobane and the Turkish border. At least 2
civilians were killed in this attack which was brought to an end by YPG
forces in Kobane with absolutely no support from the US-led coalition.
Also on Thursday the UK confirmed that it is sending ground troops to
Iraq in order to train Kurdish and Iraqi forces. As I mentioned at the
time this seemed like an effort to remind the US that it is supposed to
be conducting an operation to defeat ISIL and the main focus of that
operation needs to be in Iraq. On Friday US President Obama responded to
this by announcing that he intends to send a further 1,600 US troops to
Iraq also to train local forces bringing the total up to around 4,200.
This strikes me as Obama trying to reduce the pressure on him to explain
why after more then three months he still doesn't have a coherent
operation to defeat ISIL up and running in Iraq. The argument that Obama
is trying to put forward is that the operation cannot begin because
Iraqi troops aren't up to standard yet and need more training. However
those Iraqi troops seemed to be doing just fine at the start of
September when the US suddenly decided to start bombing targets in Syria
instead.
Although they won't be sent into front line combat the majority of these
US troops will be stationed in Iraq's capital Baghdad. That is
currently a city where if they only experience a single suicide bombing
killing dozens they consider it a quiet day. ISIL have made it quite
clear that they intended to force the US in particular to move away from
air-strikes to which ISIL have no response towards sending in ground
troops that ISIL can kill for huge propaganda value. So with memories of
the 1983 suicide bombings at the US Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon
in mind I think the US should consider this a hazardous deployment and
its troops should be paid accordingly.
Obama has rather kindly decided to grant the newly Republican Congress a
say in this deployment along with its financial costs. Given that
Obama's ISIL operation is sketchy a best along with his plans to force
through an amnesty for illegal immigrants and appoint the Al Sharpton
linked Loretta Lynch as US Attorney General he seems to be demanding
that Congress block his plan meaning that it may not actually happen. It
also doesn't bode well for the next two years of US politics being
particularly harmonious.
Given his seeming unwillingness to fight ISIL or even put pressure on
Turkey Obama was clearly in the need of a big, headline grabbing victory
against ISIL to show that he is taking the issue seriously. So on
Saturday the US struck a convoy of around 10 vehicles believed to be
carrying senior members of the ISIL leadership close to the Iraqi city
of Mosul which is around 330km (198 miles) north of Baghdad. It has
since been confirmed that ISIL commander-in-chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
was lightly wounded in that attack. I though consider this attack to be
both lacking in military value and even extremely reckless and counter
productive. Annoyingly though I cannot expand any further on why I think
that is the case.
However I think it is fair to say that since Obama became President in
2008 and instigated his drone program that US has fallen back into the
old Vietnam-era trap of equating a high body count and crossing names
off a kill list with military success. This has been a particular
problem in Yemen where Obama has massively increased the number of Al
Qaeda leaders being killed by drones. Those leaders are quickly replaced
and the conflict continues. The conflict in Yemen is currently entering
its 15th year and is showing no signs of ending any time soon.
(Originally Posted) 18:45 on 9/11/14 (UK date).
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