As I mentioned yesterday Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki was dumped by his State of Law coalition who nominated Haider al-Abadi as Iraq's next Prime Minister. This nomination was accepted Iraq's President Faud
Masum. It has also been partially accepted by the US although on the
condition that it leads to an "inclusive government." However the US has
yet to provide details of how they will define an "inclusive
government."
Unfortunately al-Abadi's nomination appears to have been wholeheartedly
rejected by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) who today
responded by detonating a large car bomb close to his house in a Baghdad
suburb. The only good thing I can say about this is that it should
provide further evidence to US President Obama that ISIL are not a group
of downtrodden Iraqi civilians yearning to be freed from the yoke of
al-Malaki's oppressive government. Instead they are a group of extremely
violent extremists who have flocked to the Levant region from across
the globe because they see it as their divine mission to kill all Shias
and non-Muslims in order to bring about the arrival of Allah's next
Prophet and ultimately the end of the World. This is not an ideology
that leaves much room for negotiation nor compromise.
Sadly it is not clear that this message will get across to Obama because
so far he has seemed unable to pick up on the subtle little hints
coming from all across Iraq and the area around the Sinjar mountains in
particular. On Mount Sinjar itself there are still some 35-40,000 Yazadi
civilians trapped after being ethnically cleansed from the surrounding
towns by ISIL. The Iraqi army in conjunction with Kurdish Peshmerga
forces have been trying to rescue those people but the best they can
offer is to fly two ancient Soviet-era Mi-8 transport helicopters to and
from the mountain in near constant rotation. As these essentially
unarmed helicopters make those journeys they come under near constant
fire from ISIL fighters on the ground and they are far too small to have
any real impact in terms of delivering aid or evacuating people. Today
one of those two helicopters crashed on its return journey killing the
pilot and a number of passengers. At the time of writing it is not yet
clear if the helicopter was brought down by enemy fire or whether it
wore out from overuse and simply fell from the sky.
Even before today's crash the dire situation on Mount Sinjar - which has
attracted a lot of press coverage - prompted the UK to announce that it
was sending four much larger Chinook helicopters to Cyprus from where
they could possibly be used assist with the evacuation. The main
sticking point on whether they will be used or not appears to be the
risk of ISIL ground fire. The obvious solution to this would be to
dispatch a couple of Apache ground attack helicopter to act as an escort
for the Chinooks by attacking any ISIL position that opens fire.
Unfortunately the US still seems very opposed to the idea of letting
anybody actually shoot at ISIL.
For his part Obama is said to be considering sending further US troops
to Iraq to join the 700+ already on the ground. Their mission will be to
find a solution to what Obama describes as the "logistical challenge"
of evacuating people from Mount Sinjar. Before he commits further US
troops to Iraq may I suggest Obama tries to solve the problem by using
the US forces that are already in the area to kill the people at the
bottom of the mountain who are trying to kill the people at the top of
the mountain. That way the people at the top of the mountain can simply
walk down the mountain and return to their homes.
Despite Obama's continuing hesitancy the US Navy has carried out further
air-strikes. Yesterday they carried out an undisclosed number of
strikes against undisclosed targets. However it is believed that this
was a maximum of four air-strikes against ISIL checkpoints and vehicles.
Today the US carried out a single air-strike against a single ISIL
mortar position. The problem is that just after yesterday's air-strikes
and just before Obama's 5 minute address on the issue (no questions were
taken) the Pentagon admitted that not only are the air-strikes not
sufficient to destroy ISIL or even halt their advance but they are not
even intended to be.
As such it seems to me that the US air-strikes at this point are purely
symbolic intended to convince US voters that Obama is doing something
without Obama actually having to do anything.
(Originally Posted) 18:30 on 12/8/14 (UK date)
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