My Brother's Keeper: Month 2, Week 2, Day 6.

At around 21:30 (23:30 local) yesterday (31/7/14) the United Nations (UN) and the United States (US) announced that a cease-fire had been agreed between Israel and Hamas. Over the next couple of hours both Hamas and then Israel agreed to the cease-fire.

That cease-fire was scheduled to begin at 05:00 (08:00 local) today and was set to last 72 hours until 05:00 (08:00) on Monday (4/8/14). During that time Israeli Defence Force (IDF) troops would remain in position and continue their work destroying Hamas' tunnel network. They would also return fire if fired upon. The cease-fire would also allow for talks between Hamas and Israel to begin in Egypt.

There are obviously a number of humanitarian advantages to a cease-fire not least because it would give civilians are break from the constant horrors of war. It would also have give local hospitals, Gazan emergency services and local relief agencies an opportunity to re-stock and begin making repairs to Gaza's civilian infrastructure including the water supply and sewage treatment services. Most importantly though it would have given the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) time to reorganise their operations.

At a dramatic UN Security Council (UNSC) briefing yesterday the UNRWA and it's parent body the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) admitted that its response to the conflict has fallen well below the required standard. As a result it is struggling to cope with the some 240,000 Gazans who have been internally displaced by the fighting. Fortunately UNRWA doesn't have to operate in Israel where some 300,000 people have been internally displaced. The UNRWA main problem seems to be that it is operating as if all of Gaza was a combat zone and is therefore sheltering people from across Gaza. However only around 45% of Gaza is actually experiencing combat so UNRWA could do a better job of making sure that people aren't being needlessly evacuated from areas where there isn't fighting putting needless pressure on their resources.

My main concern about the cease-fire was that Hamas seemed to be viewing it not as a humanitarian exercise but part of a tactical plan to gain a battlefield advantage. In the first instance any cease-fire allows Hamas the time it desperately needs to re-organise its forces to better fight the IDF in the future. As Hamas has no chance of winning this conflict that would only serve to prolong the fighting causing more death and humanitarian suffering.

In the second instance Hamas seemed intent on provoking Israel into breaking the cease-fire. That would then be used to increase international pressure on Israel through the UN. After all the UK holds the Presidency of the UNSC in August, UNRWA representative in Gaza Chris Gunness is British as is Valerie Amos the head of UNOCHA.

Hamas seemed to lay the groundwork for this provocation yesterday evening with a large - by their standards - offensive against southern Israel which has not received a moment of coverage in the British media or on CNN. As is common with most militarys in circumstances such as these the IDF grant themselves a 24 hour grace period so they can inform the relevant soldiers families in person. However it appears that Hamas knocked out power and communication systems across a wide area of southern Israel in and around the town of Sdot Negev. They then opened fire with barrages of mortar fire to act as a cover for multiple tunnel raids into Israel to kill or kidnap Israeli soldiers or civilians. They succeeded in killing 5 IDF soldiers and there are persistent rumours that 1 IDF soldier has been kidnapped.

Whenever a soldier in whatever army is killed or kidnapped the first reaction of the other soldiers in their unit is to retaliate hard and fast against the enemy. As such the sole purpose of this Hamas offensive seems to have been to provoke Israel into hitting back hard against Gaza either breaking any cease-fire or expanding their operations in Gaza maximising the civilian casualties. This escalation would then be exploited in order to increase international pressure on Israel. Prior to the start of the offensive Hamas put out multiple statements talking of an imminent victory.

As it turns out Hamas had to break the cease-fire themselves. Just one hour into the cease-fire (around 06:00/09:00) Hamas launched a mortar barrage against an IDF position near the town of Rafah. As this attack was eerily similar to the start of the attack near Sdot Negev the IDF returned fire in order to protect themselves. This was rapidly followed up by Hamas rocket fire into Israel leading the Israeli government to declare the cease-fire breached and therefore over.

Hopefully talks can continue in Egypt because Hamas must have realised that if they continue to fight both Israel and Egypt whilst severely straining their relationship with both Iran and Hezbollah they will ultimately end up destroying themselves.

11:15 on 1/8/14 (UK date).

Edited at around 19:10 on 1/8/14 (UK date) to add;

As I was writing the above the IDF confirmed that one of their soldiers had indeed been kidnapped close to Rafah in an incident that began just 64 minutes into the cease-fire. What appears to have happened is that Hamas' offensive at Sdot Negev failed so they simply continued their attempts into the cease-fire.

So far Hamas have yet to confirm that they kidnapped the soldier because they've suddenly realised that this was a very, very stupid thing to do and are now trying to sow the seeds of doubt that they were responsible. However it is quite clear what their intention was;

In the event that a soldier is kidnapped the IDF immediately invoke what is known as the "Hannibal Protocol." This is so well established it was actually briefly referenced in episode 4 of "The Honourable Woman." Acting rather like a no hostage agreement it allows IDF commanders to use any and all force (within international law) to prevent the taking of a hostage. This includes the killing their own soldier and if Ariel Sharon was still in power I honestly think that he would have nuked Gaza by this point.

However what Hamas were hoping for is that the IDF would respond with largely indiscriminate use of air-power and artillery fire before kicking down every door in Gaza. The hope being that the large civilian death toll this would have produced would have triggered the members of the international community who have a clear anti-Israeli agenda to increase pressure on Israel to stop their demolition of Hamas' military infrastructure. Failing that Hamas are obviously holding the kidnapped soldier within their underground tunnel network in the hope that this will discourage Israel from dismantling that network any further.

As of yet Israel haven't really responded to the kidnapping although it's cabinet is meeting as I write. As the kidnapping has clearly been carried out to alter the dynamic of the conflict I think Israel's best response would be to continue as if the kidnapping had never happened. As such I prefer not to think of the missing solider as kidnapped by simply as the first soldier into the tunnel.

(Originally Posted on 1/8/14 - UK date).