Mh17: The Preliminary Dutch Report,

Following a short delay the preliminary report by the Dutch Safety Board in to the crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine was released today. That report can be read here; http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/uploads/phase-docs/701/b3923acad0ceprem-rapport-mh-17-en-interactief.pdf

I must start by saying that I was actually quite impressed by the standard of the report because it was far more professional, impartial and free from political bias then I was expecting. However as preliminary report it is only intended to give an update on the status of the investigation by listing early observations rather then drawing firm conclusions. Also as the report itself makes clear its purpose is simply to establish facts rather then apportion blame or liability.

The main observation made by the report is that MH17 broke apart in mid-air. As the aircraft was in a fully air-worthy condition when it took off the most likely cause of this catastrophic failure was the fuselage being struck by "a large number of high energy objects" (think bird-shot) that originated from outside of the aircraft. However the report stops short of claiming that the aircraft was struck by a anti-aircraft missile because it has no evidence to conclusively prove that. I though think it is safe for everybody else to work under that assumption.

The investigation team were though able to recover both the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder intact and recover reliable data from both. Therefore the report can say with absolute certainty that at 12:53 (15:53 local) Air Traffic Control (ATC) instructed the crew to ascend from a height of 33,000ft (9,900m) to 35,000ft (10,500m) in accordance with their flight-plan. This request was refused by MH17 forcing ATC to divert another aircraft that was in the area to avoid a collision.

At 13:00 (14:00 local) MH17 requested permission to deviate 20 nautical miles (36km) north from its flight-path. This request was approved by ATC. At 13:19 (14:19 local) ATC observed that MH17 had veered a further 3.6 nautical miles (6.5km) north from its original flight-path without permission. Communication with the aircraft was lost at 13:20 (14:20 local) meaning that no action was taken.

The preliminary reports also notes that the crew of MH17 were all properly trained and qualified, there were no recorded malfunctions in the aircraft's control systems and no automatic cockpit warnings were issued. As a result it seems the only explanation for the crews decision to fly into what was known to be an area of armed conflict was that they made an informed decision to do so.

Another aspect that the full report is likely to look at in detail is why Ukrainian ATC saw fit to issue a non-binding Notice To AirMen (NOTAM) warning of anti-aircraft fire in the area where MH17 crashed but did not go so far as to issue a binding order to close the air-space as unsafe for civilian aircraft.

There is though quite a serious question of who will now undertake the remainder of the investigation and produce that final report. The Dutch Safety Board have been carrying out the investigation thus far on the assumption that the crash was accidental. However it has now concluded that the crash was not accidental. Under these circumstances it falls to the International Civilian Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to take on the remainder of the investigation.


On a related note I should just point out that the majority of the current western media coverage of Ukraine has come from the city of Mariupol which is under the control of the Azov Battalion. However no-one has yet seemed able to broadcast footage of the Azov Battalion, their flags and insignia. Perhaps if you were to do a Google image search for the Azov Battalion you would get a clearer idea of why no-one from the European Union (EU) has been prepared to publicly admit that they imposing fresh sanctions in support of groups like the Azov Battalion.


(Originally Posted) 17:10 on 9/9/14 (UK date).

As I didn't make it clear at the time  "anti-aircraft missile" doesn't only mean a surface-to-air missile fired from the ground but also coverers air-to-air missile fired from another aircraft that also produce "a large number of high energy objects." One of the things the full report will have to look at is whether 3 Ukrainian airforce jets were in the area at the time as reported and if so what were they doing.