Egypt's Continuing [sic] Revolution: Month 19, Week 4, Day 5.

On Tuesday (14/1/14) and Wednesday (15/1/14) Egyptians went to the polls for a referendum on the 2013 draft of a new constitution. Although counting began as soon as the polls had closed official, verified results are not yet available. However the preliminary results indicate that support for the constitution was shockingly high at around 97%.

The voter turn-out though seems to tell a very different story. Although it varied wildly across the country from a high of 98% in South Sinai to a low of just 17% in North Sinai the national average was around 30%. When you factor in the number of "No" votes cast this means that 70-75% of Egyptian voters did not vote "Yes" to this constitutional draft.

The picture gets even worse when you consider the reasons given by people interviewed at polling stations to explain why they were voting the way they did. Very few of these people offered any discussion about the constitutional draft or its impacts. Instead they spoke of voting "Yes" in order to show their support for the military's overthrow of Mohamed Morsi or their opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood. Others indicated that they thought that by voting for the constitution they were taking a stand against the violence and instability that has plagued the nation since the downfall of Mubarak and intensified since the ouster of Morsi. That suggests that those who had read and understood the constitution had stayed away from the referendum in droves whilst those who did vote simply had not understood the question.

This is very bad news for Egypt because rather then marking an important step on the road to a stable and successful democracy it instead seems to place the nation on the brink of either returning to a Mubarak-style military dictatorship or more violence and instability at the hands of a growing number of opponents to the military. Sadly it seems most likely to be a combination of the worst parts of both.

Therefore I think that revolutionary groups within Egypt should now think very hard about lodging legal challenges to the result of the referendum and the arrest of campaigners for a "No" vote would certainly give them cause. Egypt's interim leaders and the Supreme Court should then think very hard about upholding those challenges and overturning the result of this referendum. That way the constitutional draft can go back to committee for essential improvement and another referendum can be held in a few months time.

In the meantime Egypt might like to consider holding a referendum on the ouster of Morsi itself. That will certainly help Egyptians learn about the democratic process enabling them to make a better informed choice at the next constitutional referendum and all subsequent elections.

(Originally Posted) 20:30 on 16/1/14 (UK date).