On Saturday (5/10/13) the United States carried out two special forces
operations against high profile Islamist terror targets. While I'm still
utterly furious that the US has still not reigned in Chris Brown and
it's operation against Rihanna is still continuing I am not yet at the
point where I want to go into a high level of detail about either of
these operations. However I think it is fair to expand on things that I
have already said on Twitter.
Basically neither of these operations had very much to do with
terrorism. Instead they were about showing the world that the US is
still powerful in light of the drubbing it has taken over the Rihanna
operation. Also on the domestic stage US President Barack Obama was
hoping to use these operations to invoke the spirit of the successful
operation to kill Osama bin Laden in order to re-assert his authority as
Commander in Chief in order to put pressure on the Republicans in the
shutdown/Obamacare debate.
Take for example the Delta Force operation to capture of Nazih
Abdul-Hamed al-Ruqai (aka Anas al-Liby) in Tripoli, Libya. Although it's
better for the US to have al-Ruqai in custody then not he is really a
spent force in terms of the al-Qaeda leadership who had been living in
semi-retirement in Libya. That is why the operation to capture him was
closer to an everyday police operation to arrest a wanted suspect rather
then a military raid full of derring do. By capturing al-Ruqai Obama
has rather shot himself in the foot because there is inevitably going to
be an argument between the Republicans who will want to see him sent to
Guantanamo Bay and Democrats who will want to see him stand civilian
trial in New York. This is really not the sort of distraction the US
needs with the government shutdown continuing and the debt ceiling
argument looming large. Fortunately this argument is rather null and
void because 15 years on from the US Embassy bombings in Kenya and
Tanzania al-Liby's intelligence value is extremely limited.
The Navy SEAL team raid into Somalia in an attempt to capture a senior
al-Shaabab leader believed to be Ahmed Abdi Godane is more interesting.
Coming almost 20 years to the day that Delta Force soldiers tried and
failed to capture two lieutenants of the Somali warlord Mohamed Farrah
Adid in Mogadishu this was supposed to exercises the demons of the
failed operation that was immortalised in the film "Blackhawk Down." It
was also intended to be the US showing the world that it had no
involvement in the recent attack on the Westgate Mall in Kenya and was
prepared to take action against the people responsible. Finally the US
were hoping to capture Godane in order to interrogate him. Any
intelligence he revealed or the US could claim he had revealed could
then be used to put pressure on the UK in order to keep them in line for
the rest of Rihanna's tour.
Unfortunately though it appears that the Somali operation has been a
total failure with the SEALs being forced to retreat without capturing
Godane and there being little evidence he was even present during the
confrontation let alone killed. Fortunately though this does provide
Obama with something of a teachable moment in terms of the Rihanna
operation. After all while the Navy might be extremely capable and well
trained you cannot expect them to work miracles so they are no
replacement for effective leadership.
(Originally Posted) 16:30 on 6/10/13.
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