Operation Oil Theft: Month 13, Week 1, Day 1.

Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 11, Week 4, Day." On 10/2/12.

Today's post is actually an update on the past two weeks in Libya. Apparently the people who are pushing for intervention in Syria find discussion of post-intervention Libya embarrassing.

Following January 26th's (26/1/12) criticism by the United Nations (UN), Amnesty International (AI) and Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) over the mis-treatment and torture of prisoners the National Transitional Council (NTC) has begun to make the right noises about trying to improve the situation. On January 29th (29/1/12) they announced that they are beginning the process of bringing all of the militia's prisons under the control of the Ministry of Justice. At a UN organised workshop on human rights on January 31st (31/1/12) the Deputy Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur pledged to investigate allegations of torture. In an effort to hold the NTC to their word on February 2nd (2/2/12) the respected NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) highlighted the case of Doctor Omar Brebesh - Qaddafi's former Ambassador to France. After being arrested by the Zintan Brigade militia on January 19th (19/2/12) Dr Brebesh was found dead the following day. After performing an autopsy HRW concluded that Dr Brebesh had died following torture and a severe beating. It will be interesting to see if the results of the NTC investigation into the case are the same as the results of the HRW investigation.

As for Libya's most famous prisoner - Saif al-Islam Qaddafi - on January 31st his sister Aisha Qaddafi attempted to file a representation to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in which she claimed that her brother was being denied access to a lawyer or the outside world. On February 2nd (2/2/12) the ICC rejected the application on the grounds that proceedings had not yet reached the point where the accused can make representations to the court. The move though does put pressure on the ICC to speed up proceedings so they do get to that point. It's worth noting that Aisha Qaddafi is herself a lawyer. On February 5th (5/2/12) interior minister Fawzy Abdilal told CNN that Saif al-Islam's trial could begin in Libya with in weeks or months. This is only a slightly stronger statement then saying that Saif al-Islam's trial could begin in Libya at some point in the future. Mr Abdilal's comments co-incided with the start of what seems to be a test run for a possible Libyan trial of Saif al-Islam. The NTC have put 41 civilians in front of a military tribunal in Benghazi accused of fighting for Qaddafi, aiding escaped prisoners and forming criminal gangs although the exact details of the offences remain vague at best. On February 7th (7/2/12) the case was adjourned until February 15th (15/2/12) to allow some of the defendants to instruct lawyers, the lawyers that have already been appointed to study the evidence and for the tribunal to consider whether the case should be heard in front of a civilian court instead.

As of today (10/2/12) the question of who controls Bani Walid remains. The townspeople appear to be in control. While they are no longer flying the Qaddafi Green flag and accept the NTC's rule they claim to still be loyal to Qaddafi's memory. Outside of the town the May 28th Brigade militia who the townspeople forced out on January 23rd (23/2/12) are camped out and promising to re-take the town. Bizarrely the stand off is having a wider positive effect with members of Libya's myriad of militias joining together in order to re-take Bani Walid and forming one big militia they are calling the National Guard. This single militia should be easier for the NTC to work with and integrate into Libya's formal security forces. Elsewhere the militias continue to cause problems. On February 1st (1/2/12) the Zintan Brigade and the Misrata Brigade got into a seemingly pointless gun battle in Tripoli over who controls the cities Police Academy building. The several hours of fighting apparently caused no fatalities and control of the Police Academy did not change remaining under the control of the Misrata Brigade. More worryingly on February 7th (7/2/12) members of the Misrata Brigade stormed a refugee camp in the Janzour district of Tripoli that was housing Black Libyans who had fled from the town of Tawergha. The Misrata Brigade killed five in what seems to be the latest round in their never ending mission to purge Black Libyans out of the new Libya.

In response to the militia's violence the NTC Chair Mustafa Abdul Jalil has proposed a regional security conference to tackle the problem of Libya's mass of weapons. These weapons are increasingly starting to turn up in the hands of militants such as Boko Haram in Nigeria and Tuaregs in Niger and Chad. Therefore I hope that this summit goes ahead and is successful in solving this serious problem. However I know it will be an uphill struggle because the people who supplied the weapons in the first place actually want them to go on and destabilise the rest of Africa. Also I wouldn't be too surprised if some of these weapons and the fighters that use them start turning up in Syria via Turkey.

On January 28th (28/2/12) the NTC formally adopted the law governing the election for the nation's Parliament. The law decrees that 70% of the seats must go to members of a listed party and 30% must go to independent candidate but does away with the provision that reserves 10% of seats for women. However in an effort to ensure that Libya's women get at least some say in how the new Libya is run on February 8th (8/2/12) the NTC adopted a law governing the selection of candidates for the committee that will write the nation's new constitution. 20% of those seats will be reserved for women.

Protests against the NTC have continued but without the explosions of violence like the one seen in Benghazi on January 21st (21/2/12). The protests seem to be driven by two main factors. One of which is allegations of a lack of transparency in the NTC which is being used to cover up corruption. This is demonstrated by the scandal that has engulfed an NTC run scheme that sends fighters who were injured in the war to foreign countries for medical treatment. Responding to pressure the NTC suspended the scheme on February 8th (8/2/12) after it emerged that the majority of the people who were benefiting from the scheme doing so because they had friends in the right places rather then because they'd been injured in the war. The main factor though is Libya's current dire financial situation. Despite an estimated income of US$44bn from oil alone the NTC expects to run a budget deficit of US$10bn in 2012. The more pressing problem though is a chronic lack of cash that means government employees are not being paid regularly and banks have been forced to limit cash with-drawls to 2000 Libyan Dinar (LD) per month. In response on February 8th (8/2/12) the UN's World Food Program (WFP) launched a food voucher scheme which hopes to feed 10,000 families in Benghazi. This is the type of scheme that the WFP and other aid agencies have been using in east Africa to tackle the food crisis/famine and involves giving people vouchers that they can exchange at local merchants for food. However in this case the problem seems to be with asset pricing rather then a shortage of food.

Over the past week though Libyan protesters seem to have been more interested in the situation in Syria rather then the situation in Libya. In solidarity with Syrian activists on February 5th (5/2/12) protesters stormed the Syrian Embassy in Tripoli and claim to have been granted ownership of the building by the NTC. Also on February 5th (5/2/12) protesters attacked the Russian Embassy in Tripoli burning flags, throwing rocks and breaking windows. The following day they went and did the same thing to the Chinese Embassy also in Tripoli. This is not the sort of thing that is going to go unnoticed by Russian and Chinese governments keen to do a lot of business in the new Libya. So the Assad government would be well served to remember that Russia and China's patience is not without it's limits.