Operation Oil Theft: Month 11, Week 4 Day 3

Originally titled; "Operation Oil Theft: Month 10, Week 3, Day 1." on 4/1/12.

In Libya the December 20th deadline for militia's to disband or leave the capital Tripoli has come and passed without the militias disbanding or leaving. If anything they're now causing more trouble then ever before. On Saturday (31/12/11) militia fighters crossed into Tunisia and kidnapped four Tunisian border guards. Although three of the guards managed to escape quite quickly and there are reports that the fourth was freed the following day suffering from gunshot wounds this is not the sort of thing that makes for good neighbourly relations between nations. If it continues then it will force the Tunisian government to do something about it. Then on Monday (2/1/12) members of the Tripoli Brigade militia arrested a member of the Misrata Brigade militia in Tripoli on suspicion of theft. On Tuesday (3/1/12) the Misrata Brigade then attacked the Tripoli Brigade in order to free their man provoking a lengthy gun battle that left at least five dead.

Quite apart from the warring militias the security situation in Libya is further threatened by the re-emergence of pro-Qaddafi fighters. On Sunday (1/1/12) the NTC announced that it had captured nine men in possession of high explosives who were said to be attempting to blow up Tripoli's power grid and re-launch the pro-Qaddafi Al Jamahiriya TV station. Although I think the talk of TV stations is actually an attempt to put pressure on neighbouring Egypt to close down another pro-Qaddafi TV station it does seem as though the NTC have foiled a legitimate terrorist attack. However the main worry is that rather then being a genuine attempt to overthrow the NTC the attack was intended as a power play by members of Qaddafi's Warfalla tribe using violence or the threat of violence to increase their political influence.

Despite these challenges that the NTC has succeeded in publishing a 15 page draft law governing the election of the National General Committee for discussion. Although I've been unable to get hold of a copy of the actual document to read from what I gather it takes a very provocative starting position with provisions to exclude some 75% of the Libyan population from the electoral process sowing the seeds for factional divisions and corruption. I also understand that much of the wording governing the formation of political parties and the drawing up of electoral districts is very vague and needs to be both clarified and strengthened.

Also Libya's oil production is up to 305,000 barrels per day (bpd) and is expected to be back up to the pre-war level of 400,000 bpd by the end of the month.